An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
- Autores
- Santos, Juan Enrique; Carcione, José M.; Savioli, Gabriela B.; Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes
- Año de publicación
- 2021
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- parte de libro
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of fractional order in time to analyze the evolution of the epidemic in Buenos Aires and neighboring areas (Region Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, (RMBA)) comprising about 15 million inhabitants. In the SEIR model, individuals are divided into four classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The SEIR model of fractional order allows for the incorporation of memory, with hereditary properties of the system, being a generalization of the classic SEIR first-order system, where such effects are ignored. Furthermore, the fractional model provides one additional parameter to obtain a better fit of the data. The parameters of the model are calibrated by using as data the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show a set of cases with different values of the lockdown parameters, fatality rate, and incubation and infectious periods. The different reproduction ratios \(R_0\) and infection fatality rates (IFR) so obtained indicate the results may differ from recent reported values, constituting possible alternative solutions. A comparison with results obtained with the classic SEIR model is also included. The analysis allows us to study how isolation and social distancing measures affect the time evolution of the epidemic.
Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas - Materia
-
Ciencias Exactas
Ciencias Médicas
Fractional Differential Equations
Numerical investigation of stability of solutions
Medical epidemiology
Medical epidemiology - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Universidad Nacional de La Plata
- OAI Identificador
- oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/146433
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An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in ArgentinaSantos, Juan EnriqueCarcione, José M.Savioli, Gabriela B.Gauzellino, Patricia MercedesCiencias ExactasCiencias MédicasFractional Differential EquationsNumerical investigation of stability of solutionsMedical epidemiologyMedical epidemiologyA pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of fractional order in time to analyze the evolution of the epidemic in Buenos Aires and neighboring areas (Region Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, (RMBA)) comprising about 15 million inhabitants. In the SEIR model, individuals are divided into four classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The SEIR model of fractional order allows for the incorporation of memory, with hereditary properties of the system, being a generalization of the classic SEIR first-order system, where such effects are ignored. Furthermore, the fractional model provides one additional parameter to obtain a better fit of the data. The parameters of the model are calibrated by using as data the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show a set of cases with different values of the lockdown parameters, fatality rate, and incubation and infectious periods. The different reproduction ratios \(R_0\) and infection fatality rates (IFR) so obtained indicate the results may differ from recent reported values, constituting possible alternative solutions. A comparison with results obtained with the classic SEIR model is also included. The analysis allows us to study how isolation and social distancing measures affect the time evolution of the epidemic.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y GeofísicasSpringer2021-09-30info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPartinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionCapitulo de librohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248info:ar-repo/semantics/parteDeLibroapplication/pdf539-557http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/146433enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isbn/978-981-16-2450-6info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2363-6149info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2363-6157info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/978-981-16-2450-6_25info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/2104.02853v1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:32:17Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/146433Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:32:18.111SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
title |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
spellingShingle |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina Santos, Juan Enrique Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology Medical epidemiology |
title_short |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
title_full |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
title_fullStr |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
title_full_unstemmed |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
title_sort |
An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Juan Enrique Carcione, José M. Savioli, Gabriela B. Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes |
author |
Santos, Juan Enrique |
author_facet |
Santos, Juan Enrique Carcione, José M. Savioli, Gabriela B. Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Carcione, José M. Savioli, Gabriela B. Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology Medical epidemiology |
topic |
Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology Medical epidemiology |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of fractional order in time to analyze the evolution of the epidemic in Buenos Aires and neighboring areas (Region Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, (RMBA)) comprising about 15 million inhabitants. In the SEIR model, individuals are divided into four classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The SEIR model of fractional order allows for the incorporation of memory, with hereditary properties of the system, being a generalization of the classic SEIR first-order system, where such effects are ignored. Furthermore, the fractional model provides one additional parameter to obtain a better fit of the data. The parameters of the model are calibrated by using as data the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show a set of cases with different values of the lockdown parameters, fatality rate, and incubation and infectious periods. The different reproduction ratios \(R_0\) and infection fatality rates (IFR) so obtained indicate the results may differ from recent reported values, constituting possible alternative solutions. A comparison with results obtained with the classic SEIR model is also included. The analysis allows us to study how isolation and social distancing measures affect the time evolution of the epidemic. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas |
description |
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of fractional order in time to analyze the evolution of the epidemic in Buenos Aires and neighboring areas (Region Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, (RMBA)) comprising about 15 million inhabitants. In the SEIR model, individuals are divided into four classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The SEIR model of fractional order allows for the incorporation of memory, with hereditary properties of the system, being a generalization of the classic SEIR first-order system, where such effects are ignored. Furthermore, the fractional model provides one additional parameter to obtain a better fit of the data. The parameters of the model are calibrated by using as data the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show a set of cases with different values of the lockdown parameters, fatality rate, and incubation and infectious periods. The different reproduction ratios \(R_0\) and infection fatality rates (IFR) so obtained indicate the results may differ from recent reported values, constituting possible alternative solutions. A comparison with results obtained with the classic SEIR model is also included. The analysis allows us to study how isolation and social distancing measures affect the time evolution of the epidemic. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-30 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Capitulo de libro http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248 info:ar-repo/semantics/parteDeLibro |
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publishedVersion |
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http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/146433 |
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dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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Springer |
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Springer |
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