Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
- Autores
- Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
- Año de publicación
- 2021
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina - Materia
-
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CORRELATIONS
ENSO TELECONNECTIONS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
PROJECTIONS
QUANTILE REGRESSION - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/161785
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Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projectionsCollazo, Soledad MaribelBarrucand, Mariana GracielaRusticucci, Matilde MonicaARGENTINACLIMATE EXTREMESCORRELATIONSENSO TELECONNECTIONSGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSPROJECTIONSQUANTILE REGRESSIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario.Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaInter-Research2021-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/161785Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 85; 11-2021; 69-900936-577X1616-1572CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v85/p69-90/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01673info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:40:28Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/161785instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:40:29.16CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
title |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
spellingShingle |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections Collazo, Soledad Maribel ARGENTINA CLIMATE EXTREMES CORRELATIONS ENSO TELECONNECTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS PROJECTIONS QUANTILE REGRESSION |
title_short |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
title_full |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
title_fullStr |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
title_sort |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Rusticucci, Matilde Monica |
author |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel |
author_facet |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Rusticucci, Matilde Monica |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Rusticucci, Matilde Monica |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
ARGENTINA CLIMATE EXTREMES CORRELATIONS ENSO TELECONNECTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS PROJECTIONS QUANTILE REGRESSION |
topic |
ARGENTINA CLIMATE EXTREMES CORRELATIONS ENSO TELECONNECTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS PROJECTIONS QUANTILE REGRESSION |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario. Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina |
description |
This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-11 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/161785 Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 85; 11-2021; 69-90 0936-577X 1616-1572 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/161785 |
identifier_str_mv |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 85; 11-2021; 69-90 0936-577X 1616-1572 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v85/p69-90/ info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01673 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Inter-Research |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Inter-Research |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |