Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections

Autores
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Materia
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CORRELATIONS
ENSO TELECONNECTIONS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
PROJECTIONS
QUANTILE REGRESSION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/161785
Acceder
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projectionsCollazo, Soledad MaribelBarrucand, Mariana GracielaRusticucci, Matilde MonicaARGENTINACLIMATE EXTREMESCORRELATIONSENSO TELECONNECTIONSGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSPROJECTIONSQUANTILE REGRESSIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario.Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaInter-Research2021-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/161785Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 85; 11-2021; 69-900936-577X1616-1572CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v85/p69-90/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01673info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:30:11Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/161785instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:30:11.726CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
title Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
spellingShingle Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
Collazo, Soledad Maribel
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CORRELATIONS
ENSO TELECONNECTIONS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
PROJECTIONS
QUANTILE REGRESSION
title_short Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
title_full Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
title_fullStr Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
title_full_unstemmed Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
title_sort Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Collazo, Soledad Maribel
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author Collazo, Soledad Maribel
author_facet Collazo, Soledad Maribel
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author_role author
author2 Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ARGENTINA
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CORRELATIONS
ENSO TELECONNECTIONS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
PROJECTIONS
QUANTILE REGRESSION
topic ARGENTINA
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CORRELATIONS
ENSO TELECONNECTIONS
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
PROJECTIONS
QUANTILE REGRESSION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
description This study provides an overview of projected future changes in the probability density function (PDF) and variability of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (SST3.4). We analyzed how these changes affect the relationship with extreme temperature events in southern South America under global warming. We used 2 different emission scenarios for climate change simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5): RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for 2 future periods: 2031-2060 and 2071-2100. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to compare the PDFs of SST3.4 between historical and future periods. We found that the PDFs of SST3.4 for both future periods differed significantly from the PDFs of the historical period for both scenarios. Changes in SST3.4 under greenhouse warming will alter the intensity and position of the teleconnection patterns. In particular, we observed that the mean difference in sea level pressure anomalies between El Niño and La Niña will weaken in the future. This result could explain why, in general, no significant correlations or quantile regressions were projected between SST3.4 and extreme temperature indices in southern South America for both the near and far future. The projections of the best-performing models in the historical period did not provide much clarity because they differ from each other but showed us that the individual models simulate changes in the relationships between SST3.4 and extremes temperature according to the period and scenario.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/161785
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 85; 11-2021; 69-90
0936-577X
1616-1572
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/161785
identifier_str_mv Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 2: future climate projections; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 85; 11-2021; 69-90
0936-577X
1616-1572
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v85/p69-90/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01673
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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