Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
- Autores
- Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
- Año de publicación
- 2021
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina - Materia
-
CLIMATE EXTREMES
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
ATTRIBUTION
CORRELATIONS - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/152946
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Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climateCollazo, Soledad MaribelBarrucand, Mariana GracielaRusticucci, Matilde MonicaCLIMATE EXTREMESGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSATTRIBUTIONCORRELATIONShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections.Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaInter-Research2021-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/152946Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 83; 4-2021; 111-1320936-577XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v83/p111-132/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01639info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:35:52Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/152946instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:35:52.81CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
title |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
spellingShingle |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate Collazo, Soledad Maribel CLIMATE EXTREMES GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ATTRIBUTION CORRELATIONS |
title_short |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
title_full |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
title_fullStr |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
title_sort |
Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Rusticucci, Matilde Monica |
author |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel |
author_facet |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Rusticucci, Matilde Monica |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela Rusticucci, Matilde Monica |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
CLIMATE EXTREMES GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ATTRIBUTION CORRELATIONS |
topic |
CLIMATE EXTREMES GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ATTRIBUTION CORRELATIONS |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections. Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina |
description |
Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-04 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/152946 Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 83; 4-2021; 111-132 0936-577X CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/152946 |
identifier_str_mv |
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 83; 4-2021; 111-132 0936-577X CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v83/p111-132/ info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01639 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Inter-Research |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Inter-Research |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |