Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate

Autores
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE EXTREMES
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
ATTRIBUTION
CORRELATIONS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/152946
Acceder
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spelling Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climateCollazo, Soledad MaribelBarrucand, Mariana GracielaRusticucci, Matilde MonicaCLIMATE EXTREMESGLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSATTRIBUTIONCORRELATIONShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections.Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaInter-Research2021-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/152946Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 83; 4-2021; 111-1320936-577XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v83/p111-132/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01639info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:24:27Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/152946instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:24:27.798CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
title Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
spellingShingle Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
Collazo, Soledad Maribel
CLIMATE EXTREMES
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
ATTRIBUTION
CORRELATIONS
title_short Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
title_full Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
title_fullStr Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
title_full_unstemmed Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
title_sort Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Collazo, Soledad Maribel
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author Collazo, Soledad Maribel
author_facet Collazo, Soledad Maribel
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author_role author
author2 Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE EXTREMES
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
ATTRIBUTION
CORRELATIONS
topic CLIMATE EXTREMES
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
ATTRIBUTION
CORRELATIONS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description Climate variability might temporarily improve or mitigate the effects of increasingglobal warming. Understanding and estimating internal variability is just as important as understandingthe role of anthropogenic forcing, as the combination of both drives climate events in thereal world. The objective of this work is to analyze the relationship between the SST of the equatorialPacific and 4 extreme temperature indices in southern South America considering griddedobservational data (HadEX3), reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP1, NCEP2), and global climatemodels participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the historicalperiod 1979−2005. For this, correlations and quantile regression for the 90th percentilewere estimated between the variables. Moreover, to assess the performance of the reanalysis andCMIP5 models, multiple metrics were calculated. The observations showed that warm conditionsin the equatorial Pacific are mainly associated with a higher occurrence of warm nights in thenorth and center of Argentina and Chile in winter and spring. However, the different reanalysesconsidered in this study showed discrepancies in representing these relationships. Several CMIP5models were generally able to simulate correlation patterns for the warm extremes of the minimumand maximum temperature in comparison to HadEX3. These types of studies are critical tounderstanding whether climate models simulate temperature extremes in association with physicalprocesses, providing greater confidence in their future projections.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/152946
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 83; 4-2021; 111-132
0936-577X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/152946
identifier_str_mv Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Association between El Niño and extreme temperatures in southern South America in CMIP5 models. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 83; 4-2021; 111-132
0936-577X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v83/p111-132/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01639
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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