Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments

Autores
Blazquez, Josefina; Nuñez, Mario Nestor; Kusunoki, Shoji
Año de publicación
2012
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in mean climate, as well as in the annual cycles and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are discussed. An analysis is also made of the uncertainties of the 60 km resolution model experiments. For the near and distant future, both, the 20 km and 60 km resolution MRI/JMA models project that temperature changes will be positive in all seasons. The greatest values of change are over the Andes and over tropical and subtropical latitudes of the study region. In all the subregions analysed, the 20 km model projects greater changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature than the 60 km model. Changes in summer precipitation are positive over most of the continent, except for southern Chile. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase over northern Argentina and north-western South America and to decrease over central Chile in winter, which might be due to the southward shift of the Pacific storm-track. The most significant positive change in Southeastern South America (SESA) is projected to occur in spring precipitation. In general, projected changes in the annual cycle are greater in the rainy seasons of each subregion. No significant changes are expected in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. La Plata basin is projected to experience increased runoff, which would indicate that the projected rise in precipitation would have stronger effect than projected warming. The analysis of climate projection uncertainties revealed that temperature projections are more reliable than precipitation projections; and that uncertainty in near future simulations is greater than in simulations of the end of the century.
Fil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Nuñez, Mario Nestor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Kusunoki, Shoji. Meteorological Research Institute; Japón
Materia
Climate projections
High resolution global model
South America
Uncertainties
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17285
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model ExperimentsBlazquez, JosefinaNuñez, Mario NestorKusunoki, ShojiClimate projectionsHigh resolution global modelSouth AmericaUncertaintieshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in mean climate, as well as in the annual cycles and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are discussed. An analysis is also made of the uncertainties of the 60 km resolution model experiments. For the near and distant future, both, the 20 km and 60 km resolution MRI/JMA models project that temperature changes will be positive in all seasons. The greatest values of change are over the Andes and over tropical and subtropical latitudes of the study region. In all the subregions analysed, the 20 km model projects greater changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature than the 60 km model. Changes in summer precipitation are positive over most of the continent, except for southern Chile. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase over northern Argentina and north-western South America and to decrease over central Chile in winter, which might be due to the southward shift of the Pacific storm-track. The most significant positive change in Southeastern South America (SESA) is projected to occur in spring precipitation. In general, projected changes in the annual cycle are greater in the rainy seasons of each subregion. No significant changes are expected in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. La Plata basin is projected to experience increased runoff, which would indicate that the projected rise in precipitation would have stronger effect than projected warming. The analysis of climate projection uncertainties revealed that temperature projections are more reliable than precipitation projections; and that uncertainty in near future simulations is greater than in simulations of the end of the century.Fil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaFil: Nuñez, Mario Nestor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaFil: Kusunoki, Shoji. Meteorological Research Institute; JapónScientific Research Publishing2012-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/17285Blazquez, Josefina; Nuñez, Mario Nestor; Kusunoki, Shoji; Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments; Scientific Research Publishing; Atmospheric and Climate Sciences; 2; 4; 10-2012; 381-4002160-0414enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/acs.2012.24034info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://file.scirp.org/pdf/ACS20120400001_44648089.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:43:47Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17285instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:43:47.597CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
title Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
spellingShingle Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
Blazquez, Josefina
Climate projections
High resolution global model
South America
Uncertainties
title_short Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
title_full Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
title_fullStr Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
title_full_unstemmed Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
title_sort Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Blazquez, Josefina
Nuñez, Mario Nestor
Kusunoki, Shoji
author Blazquez, Josefina
author_facet Blazquez, Josefina
Nuñez, Mario Nestor
Kusunoki, Shoji
author_role author
author2 Nuñez, Mario Nestor
Kusunoki, Shoji
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate projections
High resolution global model
South America
Uncertainties
topic Climate projections
High resolution global model
South America
Uncertainties
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in mean climate, as well as in the annual cycles and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are discussed. An analysis is also made of the uncertainties of the 60 km resolution model experiments. For the near and distant future, both, the 20 km and 60 km resolution MRI/JMA models project that temperature changes will be positive in all seasons. The greatest values of change are over the Andes and over tropical and subtropical latitudes of the study region. In all the subregions analysed, the 20 km model projects greater changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature than the 60 km model. Changes in summer precipitation are positive over most of the continent, except for southern Chile. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase over northern Argentina and north-western South America and to decrease over central Chile in winter, which might be due to the southward shift of the Pacific storm-track. The most significant positive change in Southeastern South America (SESA) is projected to occur in spring precipitation. In general, projected changes in the annual cycle are greater in the rainy seasons of each subregion. No significant changes are expected in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. La Plata basin is projected to experience increased runoff, which would indicate that the projected rise in precipitation would have stronger effect than projected warming. The analysis of climate projection uncertainties revealed that temperature projections are more reliable than precipitation projections; and that uncertainty in near future simulations is greater than in simulations of the end of the century.
Fil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Nuñez, Mario Nestor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Kusunoki, Shoji. Meteorological Research Institute; Japón
description This paper analyses the climate change projected for the near and distant future in South America using MRI/JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) global model simulations with resolutions of 20 and 60 km. Changes in mean climate, as well as in the annual cycles and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are discussed. An analysis is also made of the uncertainties of the 60 km resolution model experiments. For the near and distant future, both, the 20 km and 60 km resolution MRI/JMA models project that temperature changes will be positive in all seasons. The greatest values of change are over the Andes and over tropical and subtropical latitudes of the study region. In all the subregions analysed, the 20 km model projects greater changes in the annual cycle of mean temperature than the 60 km model. Changes in summer precipitation are positive over most of the continent, except for southern Chile. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase over northern Argentina and north-western South America and to decrease over central Chile in winter, which might be due to the southward shift of the Pacific storm-track. The most significant positive change in Southeastern South America (SESA) is projected to occur in spring precipitation. In general, projected changes in the annual cycle are greater in the rainy seasons of each subregion. No significant changes are expected in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. La Plata basin is projected to experience increased runoff, which would indicate that the projected rise in precipitation would have stronger effect than projected warming. The analysis of climate projection uncertainties revealed that temperature projections are more reliable than precipitation projections; and that uncertainty in near future simulations is greater than in simulations of the end of the century.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2012-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17285
Blazquez, Josefina; Nuñez, Mario Nestor; Kusunoki, Shoji; Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments; Scientific Research Publishing; Atmospheric and Climate Sciences; 2; 4; 10-2012; 381-400
2160-0414
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17285
identifier_str_mv Blazquez, Josefina; Nuñez, Mario Nestor; Kusunoki, Shoji; Climate Projections and Uncertainties over South America from MRI/JMA Global Model Experiments; Scientific Research Publishing; Atmospheric and Climate Sciences; 2; 4; 10-2012; 381-400
2160-0414
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/acs.2012.24034
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://file.scirp.org/pdf/ACS20120400001_44648089.pdf
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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