Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology

Autores
Pesco, Pablo Sebastián; Bergero, Paula Elena; Fabricius, Gabriel; Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions. Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence - vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission. When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (βij) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or βij were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.
Facultad de Ciencias Exactas
Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas
Instituto de Biotecnologia y Biologia Molecular
Materia
Ciencias Exactas
Epidemiological trends
Mathematical model
Outbreaks
Pertussis
Transmission
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/85025

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network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiologyPesco, Pablo SebastiánBergero, Paula ElenaFabricius, GabrielHozbor, Daniela FlaviaCiencias ExactasEpidemiological trendsMathematical modelOutbreaksPertussisTransmissionThe incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions. Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence - vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission. When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (β<SUB>ij</SUB>) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or β<SUB>ij</SUB> were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.Facultad de Ciencias ExactasInstituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y AplicadasInstituto de Biotecnologia y Biologia Molecular2014info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticulohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdf13-21http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/85025enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1755-4365info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.04.001info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:16:24Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/85025Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:16:25.112SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
spellingShingle Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
Ciencias Exactas
Epidemiological trends
Mathematical model
Outbreaks
Pertussis
Transmission
title_short Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_full Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_fullStr Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_sort Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
Bergero, Paula Elena
Fabricius, Gabriel
Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
author Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
author_facet Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
Bergero, Paula Elena
Fabricius, Gabriel
Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
author_role author
author2 Bergero, Paula Elena
Fabricius, Gabriel
Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Exactas
Epidemiological trends
Mathematical model
Outbreaks
Pertussis
Transmission
topic Ciencias Exactas
Epidemiological trends
Mathematical model
Outbreaks
Pertussis
Transmission
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions. Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence - vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission. When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (β<SUB>ij</SUB>) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or β<SUB>ij</SUB> were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.
Facultad de Ciencias Exactas
Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas
Instituto de Biotecnologia y Biologia Molecular
description The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions. Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence - vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission. When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (β<SUB>ij</SUB>) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or β<SUB>ij</SUB> were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articulo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/85025
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/85025
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1755-4365
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.04.001
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
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