Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology

Autores
Pesco, Pablo Sebastián; Bergero, Paula Elena; Fabricius, Gabriel; Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions.Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence -vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission.When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (βij) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or βij were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.
Fil: Pesco, Pablo Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Fil: Bergero, Paula Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Fil: Fabricius, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Fil: Hozbor, Daniela Flavia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Materia
PERTUSSIS
TRANSMISSION
MATHEMATICAL MODEL
OUTBREAKS
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/5471
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiologyPesco, Pablo SebastiánBergero, Paula ElenaFabricius, GabrielHozbor, Daniela FlaviaPERTUSSISTRANSMISSIONMATHEMATICAL MODELOUTBREAKSEPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions.Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence -vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission.When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (βij) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or βij were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.Fil: Pesco, Pablo Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; ArgentinaFil: Bergero, Paula Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; ArgentinaFil: Fabricius, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; ArgentinaFil: Hozbor, Daniela Flavia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; ArgentinaElsevier2014-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/5471Pesco, Pablo Sebastián; Bergero, Paula Elena; Fabricius, Gabriel; Hozbor, Daniela Flavia; Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology; Elsevier; Epidemics; 7; 5-2014; 13-211755-4365enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000188info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.04.001info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:51:00Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/5471instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:51:01.224CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
spellingShingle Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
PERTUSSIS
TRANSMISSION
MATHEMATICAL MODEL
OUTBREAKS
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS
title_short Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_full Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_fullStr Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
title_sort Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
Bergero, Paula Elena
Fabricius, Gabriel
Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
author Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
author_facet Pesco, Pablo Sebastián
Bergero, Paula Elena
Fabricius, Gabriel
Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
author_role author
author2 Bergero, Paula Elena
Fabricius, Gabriel
Hozbor, Daniela Flavia
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PERTUSSIS
TRANSMISSION
MATHEMATICAL MODEL
OUTBREAKS
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS
topic PERTUSSIS
TRANSMISSION
MATHEMATICAL MODEL
OUTBREAKS
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions.Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence -vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission.When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (βij) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or βij were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.
Fil: Pesco, Pablo Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Fil: Bergero, Paula Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Fil: Fabricius, Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
Fil: Hozbor, Daniela Flavia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico La Plata. Instituto de Biotecnología y Biología Molecular; Argentina
description The incidence of the highly infectious respiratory disease named pertussis or whooping cough has been increasing for the past two decades in different countries, as in much of the highly vaccinated world. A decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, especially when acellular vaccines were used for primary doses and boosters, and pathogen adaptation to the immunity conferred by vaccines have been proposed as possible causes of the resurgence. The contributions of these factors are not expected to be the same in different communities, and this could lead to different epidemiological trends. In fact, differences in the magnitude and dynamics of pertussis outbreaks as well as in the distribution of notified cases by age have been reported in various regions.Using an age-structured mathematical model designed by us, we evaluated how the changes in some of the parameters that could be related to the above proposed causes of disease resurgence -vaccine effectiveness and effective transmission rates - may impact on pertussis transmission.When a linear decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) was assayed, a sustained increase in pertussis incidence was detected mainly in infants and children. On the other hand, when changes in effective transmission rates (βij) were made, a dynamic effect evidenced by the presence of large peaks followed by deep valleys was detected. In this case, greater incidence in adolescents than in children was observed. These different trends in the disease dynamics due to modifications in VE or βij were verified in 18 possible scenarios that represent different epidemiological situations. Interestingly we found that both incidence trends produced by the model and their age distribution resemble the profiles obtained from data reported in several regions. The implications of these correlations are discussed.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/5471
Pesco, Pablo Sebastián; Bergero, Paula Elena; Fabricius, Gabriel; Hozbor, Daniela Flavia; Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology; Elsevier; Epidemics; 7; 5-2014; 13-21
1755-4365
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/5471
identifier_str_mv Pesco, Pablo Sebastián; Bergero, Paula Elena; Fabricius, Gabriel; Hozbor, Daniela Flavia; Modelling the effect of changes in vaccine effectiveness and transmission contact rates on pertussis epidemiology; Elsevier; Epidemics; 7; 5-2014; 13-21
1755-4365
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000188
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.04.001
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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