Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina

Autores
Lopez, Maria Soledad; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Rodriguez, Santiago T.; Radosevich, Ainelen; Müller, Gabriela V.; Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Introduction. Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, which include the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability concerning the epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods. A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during the major epidemics of 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus.Results. All analyzed components of the climate have influenced the evolution of dengue in the studied city. Climate extremes may have increased the frequency and magnitude of epidemics. Average temperature and precipitation have shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby defining the magnitude and duration of epidemics. Conclusion. The trend towards warmer conditions and increased intense precipitation events may drive more frequent and higher-incidence epidemics, given the specific average climate and climate variability of the studied city. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics.
Fil: Lopez, Maria Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Gomez, Andrea Alejandra. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Rodriguez, Santiago T.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Radosevich, Ainelen. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas; Argentina
Fil: Müller, Gabriela V.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Materia
dengue
climate extremes
epidemics
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/272259
Acceder
id CONICETDig_e4cf269483d794b78e44ed06f4b60524
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/272259
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of ArgentinaLopez, Maria SoledadLovino, Miguel AngelGomez, Andrea AlejandraRodriguez, Santiago T.Radosevich, AinelenMüller, Gabriela V.Estallo, Elizabet Liliadengueclimate extremesepidemicshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Introduction. Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, which include the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability concerning the epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods. A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during the major epidemics of 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus.Results. All analyzed components of the climate have influenced the evolution of dengue in the studied city. Climate extremes may have increased the frequency and magnitude of epidemics. Average temperature and precipitation have shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby defining the magnitude and duration of epidemics. Conclusion. The trend towards warmer conditions and increased intense precipitation events may drive more frequent and higher-incidence epidemics, given the specific average climate and climate variability of the studied city. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics.Fil: Lopez, Maria Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Gomez, Andrea Alejandra. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Rodriguez, Santiago T.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Radosevich, Ainelen. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas; ArgentinaFil: Müller, Gabriela V.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaElsevier2025-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/272259Lopez, Maria Soledad; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Rodriguez, Santiago T.; Radosevich, Ainelen; et al.; Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina; Elsevier; The Journal of Climate Change and Health; 22; 3-2025; 1-82667-2782CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100426info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:43:11Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/272259instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:43:11.643CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
title Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
spellingShingle Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
Lopez, Maria Soledad
dengue
climate extremes
epidemics
title_short Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
title_full Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
title_fullStr Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
title_sort Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lopez, Maria Soledad
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
Rodriguez, Santiago T.
Radosevich, Ainelen
Müller, Gabriela V.
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author Lopez, Maria Soledad
author_facet Lopez, Maria Soledad
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
Rodriguez, Santiago T.
Radosevich, Ainelen
Müller, Gabriela V.
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author_role author
author2 Lovino, Miguel Angel
Gomez, Andrea Alejandra
Rodriguez, Santiago T.
Radosevich, Ainelen
Müller, Gabriela V.
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv dengue
climate extremes
epidemics
topic dengue
climate extremes
epidemics
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Introduction. Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, which include the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability concerning the epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods. A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during the major epidemics of 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus.Results. All analyzed components of the climate have influenced the evolution of dengue in the studied city. Climate extremes may have increased the frequency and magnitude of epidemics. Average temperature and precipitation have shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby defining the magnitude and duration of epidemics. Conclusion. The trend towards warmer conditions and increased intense precipitation events may drive more frequent and higher-incidence epidemics, given the specific average climate and climate variability of the studied city. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics.
Fil: Lopez, Maria Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Gomez, Andrea Alejandra. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Rodriguez, Santiago T.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Radosevich, Ainelen. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas; Argentina
Fil: Müller, Gabriela V.. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
description Introduction. Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, which include the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability concerning the epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods. A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during the major epidemics of 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus.Results. All analyzed components of the climate have influenced the evolution of dengue in the studied city. Climate extremes may have increased the frequency and magnitude of epidemics. Average temperature and precipitation have shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby defining the magnitude and duration of epidemics. Conclusion. The trend towards warmer conditions and increased intense precipitation events may drive more frequent and higher-incidence epidemics, given the specific average climate and climate variability of the studied city. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/272259
Lopez, Maria Soledad; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Rodriguez, Santiago T.; Radosevich, Ainelen; et al.; Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina; Elsevier; The Journal of Climate Change and Health; 22; 3-2025; 1-8
2667-2782
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/272259
identifier_str_mv Lopez, Maria Soledad; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Gomez, Andrea Alejandra; Rodriguez, Santiago T.; Radosevich, Ainelen; et al.; Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina; Elsevier; The Journal of Climate Change and Health; 22; 3-2025; 1-8
2667-2782
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100426
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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