Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina

Autores
Gutierrez, Javier Armando; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Aparicio, Juan Pablo; Sibona, Gustavo Javier
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world, giving place to more frequent outbreaks in Latin America. In the non-endemic city of San Ramón de la Nueva Orán, located in Northwest Argentina, large dengue outbreaks alternate with several years of smaller ones. This pattern, as well as the understanding of the underlying mechanisms, could be essential to design proper strategies to reduce epidemic size. We develop a stochastic model that includes climate variables, social structure, and mobility between a non-endemic city and an endemic area. Climatic variables were input of a mosquito population ecological model, which in turn was coupled to a meta-population, spatially explicit, epidemiological model. Human mobility was included into the model given the high border crossing to the northern country of Bolivia, where dengue transmission is sustained during the whole year. We tested different hypotheses regarding people mobility as well as climate variability by fitting numerical simulations to weekly clinical data reported from 2009 to 2016. After assessing the number of imported cases that triggered the observed outbreaks, our model allows to explain the observed epidemic pattern. We found that the number of vectors per host and the effective reproductive number are proxies for large epidemics. Both proxies are related with climate variability such as rainfall and temperature, opening the possibility to test these meteorological variables for forecast purposes.
Fil: Gutierrez, Javier Armando. Universidad Nacional de Salta; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Aparicio, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; Argentina
Fil: Sibona, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina
Materia
DENGUE
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
MOSQUITOES POPULATION
OUTBREAK
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217888
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest ArgentinaGutierrez, Javier ArmandoLaneri, Karina FabianaAparicio, Juan PabloSibona, Gustavo JavierDENGUEMATHEMATICAL MODELLINGMOSQUITOES POPULATIONOUTBREAKhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world, giving place to more frequent outbreaks in Latin America. In the non-endemic city of San Ramón de la Nueva Orán, located in Northwest Argentina, large dengue outbreaks alternate with several years of smaller ones. This pattern, as well as the understanding of the underlying mechanisms, could be essential to design proper strategies to reduce epidemic size. We develop a stochastic model that includes climate variables, social structure, and mobility between a non-endemic city and an endemic area. Climatic variables were input of a mosquito population ecological model, which in turn was coupled to a meta-population, spatially explicit, epidemiological model. Human mobility was included into the model given the high border crossing to the northern country of Bolivia, where dengue transmission is sustained during the whole year. We tested different hypotheses regarding people mobility as well as climate variability by fitting numerical simulations to weekly clinical data reported from 2009 to 2016. After assessing the number of imported cases that triggered the observed outbreaks, our model allows to explain the observed epidemic pattern. We found that the number of vectors per host and the effective reproductive number are proxies for large epidemics. Both proxies are related with climate variability such as rainfall and temperature, opening the possibility to test these meteorological variables for forecast purposes.Fil: Gutierrez, Javier Armando. Universidad Nacional de Salta; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Aparicio, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; ArgentinaFil: Sibona, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; ArgentinaElsevier2022-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/217888Gutierrez, Javier Armando; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Aparicio, Juan Pablo; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina; Elsevier; Infectious Disease Modelling; 7; 4; 12-2022; 823-8342468-0427CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2468042722000811info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.004info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:58:46Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217888instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:58:47.083CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
title Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
spellingShingle Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
Gutierrez, Javier Armando
DENGUE
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
MOSQUITOES POPULATION
OUTBREAK
title_short Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
title_full Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
title_fullStr Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
title_sort Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gutierrez, Javier Armando
Laneri, Karina Fabiana
Aparicio, Juan Pablo
Sibona, Gustavo Javier
author Gutierrez, Javier Armando
author_facet Gutierrez, Javier Armando
Laneri, Karina Fabiana
Aparicio, Juan Pablo
Sibona, Gustavo Javier
author_role author
author2 Laneri, Karina Fabiana
Aparicio, Juan Pablo
Sibona, Gustavo Javier
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv DENGUE
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
MOSQUITOES POPULATION
OUTBREAK
topic DENGUE
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING
MOSQUITOES POPULATION
OUTBREAK
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world, giving place to more frequent outbreaks in Latin America. In the non-endemic city of San Ramón de la Nueva Orán, located in Northwest Argentina, large dengue outbreaks alternate with several years of smaller ones. This pattern, as well as the understanding of the underlying mechanisms, could be essential to design proper strategies to reduce epidemic size. We develop a stochastic model that includes climate variables, social structure, and mobility between a non-endemic city and an endemic area. Climatic variables were input of a mosquito population ecological model, which in turn was coupled to a meta-population, spatially explicit, epidemiological model. Human mobility was included into the model given the high border crossing to the northern country of Bolivia, where dengue transmission is sustained during the whole year. We tested different hypotheses regarding people mobility as well as climate variability by fitting numerical simulations to weekly clinical data reported from 2009 to 2016. After assessing the number of imported cases that triggered the observed outbreaks, our model allows to explain the observed epidemic pattern. We found that the number of vectors per host and the effective reproductive number are proxies for large epidemics. Both proxies are related with climate variability such as rainfall and temperature, opening the possibility to test these meteorological variables for forecast purposes.
Fil: Gutierrez, Javier Armando. Universidad Nacional de Salta; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Aparicio, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; Argentina
Fil: Sibona, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina
description In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world, giving place to more frequent outbreaks in Latin America. In the non-endemic city of San Ramón de la Nueva Orán, located in Northwest Argentina, large dengue outbreaks alternate with several years of smaller ones. This pattern, as well as the understanding of the underlying mechanisms, could be essential to design proper strategies to reduce epidemic size. We develop a stochastic model that includes climate variables, social structure, and mobility between a non-endemic city and an endemic area. Climatic variables were input of a mosquito population ecological model, which in turn was coupled to a meta-population, spatially explicit, epidemiological model. Human mobility was included into the model given the high border crossing to the northern country of Bolivia, where dengue transmission is sustained during the whole year. We tested different hypotheses regarding people mobility as well as climate variability by fitting numerical simulations to weekly clinical data reported from 2009 to 2016. After assessing the number of imported cases that triggered the observed outbreaks, our model allows to explain the observed epidemic pattern. We found that the number of vectors per host and the effective reproductive number are proxies for large epidemics. Both proxies are related with climate variability such as rainfall and temperature, opening the possibility to test these meteorological variables for forecast purposes.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217888
Gutierrez, Javier Armando; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Aparicio, Juan Pablo; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina; Elsevier; Infectious Disease Modelling; 7; 4; 12-2022; 823-834
2468-0427
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217888
identifier_str_mv Gutierrez, Javier Armando; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Aparicio, Juan Pablo; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina; Elsevier; Infectious Disease Modelling; 7; 4; 12-2022; 823-834
2468-0427
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2468042722000811
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.004
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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