Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis

Autores
Suriano, Micaela; Caram, Leónida Facundo; Caiafa, Cesar Federico; Merlino, Hernán; Rosso, Osvaldo Aníbal
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper investigates the temporal evolution of cryptocurrency time series using information measures such as complexity, entropy, and Fisher information. The main objective is to differentiate between various levels of randomness and chaos. The methodology was applied to 176 daily closing price time series of different cryptocurrencies, from October 2015 to October 2024, with more than 30 days of data and not completely null. Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) analysis reveals that daily cryptocurrency series with lengths of two years or less exhibit chaotic behavior, while those longer than two years display stochastic behavior. Most longer series resemble colored noise, with the parameter k varying between 0 and 2. Additionally, Natural Language Processing (NLP) analysis identified the most relevant terms in each white paper, facilitating a clustering method that resulted in four distinct clusters. However, no significant characteristics were found across these clusters in terms of the dynamics of the time series. This finding challenges the assumption that project narratives dictate market behavior. For this reason, investment recommendations should prioritize real-time informational metrics over whitepaper content.
Instituto de Física La Plata
Instituto Argentino de Radioastronomía
Materia
Física
permutation entropy
statistical complexity
cryptocurrency
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/181641
Acceder
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network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series AnalysisSuriano, MicaelaCaram, Leónida FacundoCaiafa, Cesar FedericoMerlino, HernánRosso, Osvaldo AníbalFísicapermutation entropystatistical complexitycryptocurrencyThis paper investigates the temporal evolution of cryptocurrency time series using information measures such as complexity, entropy, and Fisher information. The main objective is to differentiate between various levels of randomness and chaos. The methodology was applied to 176 daily closing price time series of different cryptocurrencies, from October 2015 to October 2024, with more than 30 days of data and not completely null. Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) analysis reveals that daily cryptocurrency series with lengths of two years or less exhibit chaotic behavior, while those longer than two years display stochastic behavior. Most longer series resemble colored noise, with the parameter k varying between 0 and 2. Additionally, Natural Language Processing (NLP) analysis identified the most relevant terms in each white paper, facilitating a clustering method that resulted in four distinct clusters. However, no significant characteristics were found across these clusters in terms of the dynamics of the time series. This finding challenges the assumption that project narratives dictate market behavior. For this reason, investment recommendations should prioritize real-time informational metrics over whitepaper content.Instituto de Física La PlataInstituto Argentino de Radioastronomía2025-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticulohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/181641enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1099-4300info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/e27040450info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-10-29T15:54:38Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/181641Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-10-29 15:54:39.017SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
title Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
spellingShingle Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
Suriano, Micaela
Física
permutation entropy
statistical complexity
cryptocurrency
title_short Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
title_full Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
title_fullStr Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
title_sort Information Theory Quantifiers in Cryptocurrency Time Series Analysis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Suriano, Micaela
Caram, Leónida Facundo
Caiafa, Cesar Federico
Merlino, Hernán
Rosso, Osvaldo Aníbal
author Suriano, Micaela
author_facet Suriano, Micaela
Caram, Leónida Facundo
Caiafa, Cesar Federico
Merlino, Hernán
Rosso, Osvaldo Aníbal
author_role author
author2 Caram, Leónida Facundo
Caiafa, Cesar Federico
Merlino, Hernán
Rosso, Osvaldo Aníbal
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Física
permutation entropy
statistical complexity
cryptocurrency
topic Física
permutation entropy
statistical complexity
cryptocurrency
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper investigates the temporal evolution of cryptocurrency time series using information measures such as complexity, entropy, and Fisher information. The main objective is to differentiate between various levels of randomness and chaos. The methodology was applied to 176 daily closing price time series of different cryptocurrencies, from October 2015 to October 2024, with more than 30 days of data and not completely null. Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) analysis reveals that daily cryptocurrency series with lengths of two years or less exhibit chaotic behavior, while those longer than two years display stochastic behavior. Most longer series resemble colored noise, with the parameter k varying between 0 and 2. Additionally, Natural Language Processing (NLP) analysis identified the most relevant terms in each white paper, facilitating a clustering method that resulted in four distinct clusters. However, no significant characteristics were found across these clusters in terms of the dynamics of the time series. This finding challenges the assumption that project narratives dictate market behavior. For this reason, investment recommendations should prioritize real-time informational metrics over whitepaper content.
Instituto de Física La Plata
Instituto Argentino de Radioastronomía
description This paper investigates the temporal evolution of cryptocurrency time series using information measures such as complexity, entropy, and Fisher information. The main objective is to differentiate between various levels of randomness and chaos. The methodology was applied to 176 daily closing price time series of different cryptocurrencies, from October 2015 to October 2024, with more than 30 days of data and not completely null. Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) analysis reveals that daily cryptocurrency series with lengths of two years or less exhibit chaotic behavior, while those longer than two years display stochastic behavior. Most longer series resemble colored noise, with the parameter k varying between 0 and 2. Additionally, Natural Language Processing (NLP) analysis identified the most relevant terms in each white paper, facilitating a clustering method that resulted in four distinct clusters. However, no significant characteristics were found across these clusters in terms of the dynamics of the time series. This finding challenges the assumption that project narratives dictate market behavior. For this reason, investment recommendations should prioritize real-time informational metrics over whitepaper content.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articulo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/181641
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/181641
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1099-4300
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/e27040450
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron:UNLP
reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron_str UNLP
institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
repository.mail.fl_str_mv alira@sedici.unlp.edu.ar
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