Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks

Autores
Pinto, Oscar Alejandro; Muñoz, Miguel A.
Año de publicación
2011
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.
Fil: Pinto, Oscar Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Física Aplicada "Dr. Jorge Andrés Zgrablich". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Física Aplicada "Dr. Jorge Andrés Zgrablich"; Argentina
Fil: Muñoz, Miguel A.. Universidad de Granada. Facultad de Ciencias. Departamento de Electromagnetismo y Física de la Materia. Instituto "Carlos I" de Física Teórica y Computacional; España
Materia
Epidemic Outbreaks
accidental pathogens
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/192803
Acceder
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spelling Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic OutbreaksPinto, Oscar AlejandroMuñoz, Miguel A.Epidemic Outbreaksaccidental pathogenshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.Fil: Pinto, Oscar Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Física Aplicada "Dr. Jorge Andrés Zgrablich". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Física Aplicada "Dr. Jorge Andrés Zgrablich"; ArgentinaFil: Muñoz, Miguel A.. Universidad de Granada. Facultad de Ciencias. Departamento de Electromagnetismo y Física de la Materia. Instituto "Carlos I" de Física Teórica y Computacional; EspañaPublic Library of Science2011-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/192803Pinto, Oscar Alejandro; Muñoz, Miguel A.; Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks; Public Library of Science; Plos One; 6; 7; 7-2011; 1-71932-6203CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0021946info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0021946info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:39:13Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/192803instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:39:14.095CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
title Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
spellingShingle Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
Pinto, Oscar Alejandro
Epidemic Outbreaks
accidental pathogens
title_short Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
title_full Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
title_fullStr Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
title_sort Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Pinto, Oscar Alejandro
Muñoz, Miguel A.
author Pinto, Oscar Alejandro
author_facet Pinto, Oscar Alejandro
Muñoz, Miguel A.
author_role author
author2 Muñoz, Miguel A.
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Epidemic Outbreaks
accidental pathogens
topic Epidemic Outbreaks
accidental pathogens
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.
Fil: Pinto, Oscar Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Física Aplicada "Dr. Jorge Andrés Zgrablich". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Física Aplicada "Dr. Jorge Andrés Zgrablich"; Argentina
Fil: Muñoz, Miguel A.. Universidad de Granada. Facultad de Ciencias. Departamento de Electromagnetismo y Física de la Materia. Instituto "Carlos I" de Física Teórica y Computacional; España
description Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/192803
Pinto, Oscar Alejandro; Muñoz, Miguel A.; Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks; Public Library of Science; Plos One; 6; 7; 7-2011; 1-7
1932-6203
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/192803
identifier_str_mv Pinto, Oscar Alejandro; Muñoz, Miguel A.; Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks; Public Library of Science; Plos One; 6; 7; 7-2011; 1-7
1932-6203
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0021946
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0021946
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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