Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate
- Autores
- Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus G.; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; Salinger, Jim; He, Hong S.; Li, Mai He; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Srivastava, Arvind; Zhai, Panmao; Lippmann, Tanya; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhammad; Hou, Wei; Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Wu, Zhengfang
- Año de publicación
- 2022
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.
Fil: Du, Haibo. Northeast Normal University; China. Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences; China
Fil: Donat, Markus G.. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España
Fil: Zong, Shengwei. Northeast Normal University; China. Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences; China
Fil: Alexander, Lisa V.. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Manzanas, Rodrigo. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Kruger, Andries. University Of Pretoria; Sudáfrica
Fil: Choi, Gwangyong. Jeju National University; Corea del Sur
Fil: Salinger, Jim. Victoria University Of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: He, Hong S.. University of Missouri; Estados Unidos
Fil: Li, Mai He. Swiss Federal Research Institute; Suiza. Northeast Normal University; China
Fil: Fujibe, Fumiaki. Tokyo Metropolitan University; Japón
Fil: Nandintsetseg, Banzragch. Istanbul Technical University; Turquía. Nagoya University; Japón. Hydrology And Environment; Mongolia
Fil: Rehman, Shafiqur. King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals; Arabia Saudita
Fil: Abbas, Farhat. University Of Prince Edward Island; Canadá
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina
Fil: Srivastava, Arvind. India Meteorological Department; India
Fil: Zhai, Panmao. China Meteorological Administration; China
Fil: Lippmann, Tanya. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Yabi, Ibouraïma. University Of Abomey-calavi; Benín
Fil: Stambaugh, Michael C.. University of Missouri; Estados Unidos
Fil: Wang, Shengzhong. Northeast Normal University; China
Fil: Batbold, Altangerel. Hydrology And Environment; Mongolia
Fil: de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; Brasil
Fil: Adrees, Muhammad. Government College University Faisalabad; Pakistán. University Of Prince Edward Island; Canadá
Fil: Hou, Wei. China Meteorological Administration; China
Fil: Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Lucio, Paulo Sergio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Wu, Zhengfang. Northeast Normal University; China - Materia
-
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CLIMATE RECORDS
EXTREME EVENTS
PRECIPITATION - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
.jpg)
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/216405
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming ClimateDu, HaiboDonat, Markus G.Zong, ShengweiAlexander, Lisa V.Manzanas, RodrigoKruger, AndriesChoi, GwangyongSalinger, JimHe, Hong S.Li, Mai HeFujibe, FumiakiNandintsetseg, BanzragchRehman, ShafiqurAbbas, FarhatRusticucci, Matilde MonicaSrivastava, ArvindZhai, PanmaoLippmann, TanyaYabi, IbouraïmaStambaugh, Michael C.Wang, ShengzhongBatbold, Altangerelde Oliveira, Priscilla TelesAdrees, MuhammadHou, WeiSantos e Silva, Claudio MoisesLucio, Paulo SergioWu, ZhengfangCLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE PREDICTIONCLIMATE RECORDSEXTREME EVENTSPRECIPITATIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.Fil: Du, Haibo. Northeast Normal University; China. Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences; ChinaFil: Donat, Markus G.. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; EspañaFil: Zong, Shengwei. Northeast Normal University; China. Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences; ChinaFil: Alexander, Lisa V.. University of New South Wales; AustraliaFil: Manzanas, Rodrigo. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Kruger, Andries. University Of Pretoria; SudáfricaFil: Choi, Gwangyong. Jeju National University; Corea del SurFil: Salinger, Jim. Victoria University Of Wellington; Nueva ZelandaFil: He, Hong S.. University of Missouri; Estados UnidosFil: Li, Mai He. Swiss Federal Research Institute; Suiza. Northeast Normal University; ChinaFil: Fujibe, Fumiaki. Tokyo Metropolitan University; JapónFil: Nandintsetseg, Banzragch. Istanbul Technical University; Turquía. Nagoya University; Japón. Hydrology And Environment; MongoliaFil: Rehman, Shafiqur. King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals; Arabia SauditaFil: Abbas, Farhat. University Of Prince Edward Island; CanadáFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; ArgentinaFil: Srivastava, Arvind. India Meteorological Department; IndiaFil: Zhai, Panmao. China Meteorological Administration; ChinaFil: Lippmann, Tanya. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University of New South Wales; AustraliaFil: Yabi, Ibouraïma. University Of Abomey-calavi; BenínFil: Stambaugh, Michael C.. University of Missouri; Estados UnidosFil: Wang, Shengzhong. Northeast Normal University; ChinaFil: Batbold, Altangerel. Hydrology And Environment; MongoliaFil: de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Adrees, Muhammad. Government College University Faisalabad; Pakistán. University Of Prince Edward Island; CanadáFil: Hou, Wei. China Meteorological Administration; ChinaFil: Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BrasilFil: Lucio, Paulo Sergio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BrasilFil: Wu, Zhengfang. Northeast Normal University; ChinaAmer Meteorological Soc2022-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/216405Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus G.; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Manzanas, Rodrigo; et al.; Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 103; 4; 4-2022; 1130-11450003-0007CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/4/BAMS-D-21-0140.1.xmlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:06:33Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/216405instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:06:33.717CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| title |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| spellingShingle |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate Du, Haibo CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE RECORDS EXTREME EVENTS PRECIPITATION |
| title_short |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| title_full |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| title_fullStr |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| title_sort |
Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Du, Haibo Donat, Markus G. Zong, Shengwei Alexander, Lisa V. Manzanas, Rodrigo Kruger, Andries Choi, Gwangyong Salinger, Jim He, Hong S. Li, Mai He Fujibe, Fumiaki Nandintsetseg, Banzragch Rehman, Shafiqur Abbas, Farhat Rusticucci, Matilde Monica Srivastava, Arvind Zhai, Panmao Lippmann, Tanya Yabi, Ibouraïma Stambaugh, Michael C. Wang, Shengzhong Batbold, Altangerel de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles Adrees, Muhammad Hou, Wei Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises Lucio, Paulo Sergio Wu, Zhengfang |
| author |
Du, Haibo |
| author_facet |
Du, Haibo Donat, Markus G. Zong, Shengwei Alexander, Lisa V. Manzanas, Rodrigo Kruger, Andries Choi, Gwangyong Salinger, Jim He, Hong S. Li, Mai He Fujibe, Fumiaki Nandintsetseg, Banzragch Rehman, Shafiqur Abbas, Farhat Rusticucci, Matilde Monica Srivastava, Arvind Zhai, Panmao Lippmann, Tanya Yabi, Ibouraïma Stambaugh, Michael C. Wang, Shengzhong Batbold, Altangerel de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles Adrees, Muhammad Hou, Wei Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises Lucio, Paulo Sergio Wu, Zhengfang |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Donat, Markus G. Zong, Shengwei Alexander, Lisa V. Manzanas, Rodrigo Kruger, Andries Choi, Gwangyong Salinger, Jim He, Hong S. Li, Mai He Fujibe, Fumiaki Nandintsetseg, Banzragch Rehman, Shafiqur Abbas, Farhat Rusticucci, Matilde Monica Srivastava, Arvind Zhai, Panmao Lippmann, Tanya Yabi, Ibouraïma Stambaugh, Michael C. Wang, Shengzhong Batbold, Altangerel de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles Adrees, Muhammad Hou, Wei Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises Lucio, Paulo Sergio Wu, Zhengfang |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE RECORDS EXTREME EVENTS PRECIPITATION |
| topic |
CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE RECORDS EXTREME EVENTS PRECIPITATION |
| purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
| dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming. Fil: Du, Haibo. Northeast Normal University; China. Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences; China Fil: Donat, Markus G.. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España Fil: Zong, Shengwei. Northeast Normal University; China. Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences; China Fil: Alexander, Lisa V.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Manzanas, Rodrigo. Universidad de Cantabria; España Fil: Kruger, Andries. University Of Pretoria; Sudáfrica Fil: Choi, Gwangyong. Jeju National University; Corea del Sur Fil: Salinger, Jim. Victoria University Of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: He, Hong S.. University of Missouri; Estados Unidos Fil: Li, Mai He. Swiss Federal Research Institute; Suiza. Northeast Normal University; China Fil: Fujibe, Fumiaki. Tokyo Metropolitan University; Japón Fil: Nandintsetseg, Banzragch. Istanbul Technical University; Turquía. Nagoya University; Japón. Hydrology And Environment; Mongolia Fil: Rehman, Shafiqur. King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals; Arabia Saudita Fil: Abbas, Farhat. University Of Prince Edward Island; Canadá Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina Fil: Srivastava, Arvind. India Meteorological Department; India Fil: Zhai, Panmao. China Meteorological Administration; China Fil: Lippmann, Tanya. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Yabi, Ibouraïma. University Of Abomey-calavi; Benín Fil: Stambaugh, Michael C.. University of Missouri; Estados Unidos Fil: Wang, Shengzhong. Northeast Normal University; China Fil: Batbold, Altangerel. Hydrology And Environment; Mongolia Fil: de Oliveira, Priscilla Teles. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; Brasil Fil: Adrees, Muhammad. Government College University Faisalabad; Pakistán. University Of Prince Edward Island; Canadá Fil: Hou, Wei. China Meteorological Administration; China Fil: Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil Fil: Lucio, Paulo Sergio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil Fil: Wu, Zhengfang. Northeast Normal University; China |
| description |
Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming. |
| publishDate |
2022 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-04 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
| format |
article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/216405 Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus G.; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Manzanas, Rodrigo; et al.; Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 103; 4; 4-2022; 1130-1145 0003-0007 CONICET Digital CONICET |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/216405 |
| identifier_str_mv |
Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus G.; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Manzanas, Rodrigo; et al.; Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 103; 4; 4-2022; 1130-1145 0003-0007 CONICET Digital CONICET |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/4/BAMS-D-21-0140.1.xml |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf application/pdf |
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Amer Meteorological Soc |
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Amer Meteorological Soc |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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