Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

• Autores: Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Teles de Oliveira, Priscilla; Adrees, Muhammad; Hou, Wei; Zong, Shengwei; Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Wu, Zhengfang
• Año de publicación: 2019
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: precipitation; persistent extremes; global
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.
Fil: Du, Haibo. Northeast Normal University; China
Fil: Alexander, Lisa V.. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Donat, Markus G.. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Lippmann, Tanya. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Srivastava, Arvind. National Climate Centre; India
Fil: Salinger, Jim. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Kruger, Andries. University of Pretoria; Sudáfrica
Fil: Choi, Gwangyong. Jeju National University; Corea del Sur
Fil: He, Hong S.. Northeast Normal University; China
Fil: Fujibe, Fumiaki. Tokyo Metropolitan University; Japón
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Nandintsetseg, Banzragch. No especifíca;
Fil: Manzanas, Rodrigo. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Rehman, Shafiqur. No especifíca;
Fil: Abbas, Farhat. Government College University; Pakistán
Fil: Zhai, Panmao. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Yabi, Ibouraïma. No especifíca;
Fil: Stambaugh, Michael C.. No especifíca;
Fil: Wang, Shengzhong. No especifíca;
Fil: Batbold, Altangerel. No especifíca;
Fil: Teles de Oliveira, Priscilla. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; Brasil
Fil: Adrees, Muhammad. Government College University; Pakistán
Fil: Hou, Wei. No especifíca;
Fil: Zong, Shengwei. No especifíca;
Fil: Santos e Silva, Claudio Moises. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Lucio, Paulo Sergio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; Brasil
Fil: Wu, Zhengfang. No especifíca;