Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario

Autores
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Weber, T.; Teichmann, C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Climate hazards associated with compound events (CEs) have lately received increasing attention over South America (SA) due to their potential risks and amplification of impacts. This work addressed the evaluation of different temperature- and precipitation-based CE in SA considering the CORDEX-CORE ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving earth system models (ESMs) in the reference period 1981–2010 and the late 21st century (2070–2099), for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. The assessment focused on model performance for the individual events—heatwaves (HWs), Extreme rainfall (ER) days, and dry-spells (DSs)—and their compound occurrence in terms of climatological frequency and duration. The spatial patterns of individual events were adequately reproduced by the RCMs, evidencing general overestimations in extreme precipitation intensities. In terms of CE, the frequencies of coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) were remarkable over central-eastern Brazil and southern SA (southeastern SA). The main features of CE were generally well-simulated by the RCMs, although they presented regional differences such as an underestimation of the maximum frequencies of these two CE in northeastern Brazil and southeastern SA, respectively. The high-resolution information was generally in line with the larger-scale driving ESMs. The climate change signal analysis generally showed robust future increases in CE frequency and duration in different areas of SA, as for coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) over northern SA and southern Brazil (southeastern SA). This was mostly consistent among the RCMs ensemble and notably strengthened in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5).
Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Weber, T.. Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; Alemania
Fil: Teichmann, C.. Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; Alemania
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
CORDEX
EXTREME EVENTS
PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
TEMPERATURE
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/221610

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenarioOlmo, Matías EzequielWeber, T.Teichmann, C.Bettolli, Maria LauraCLIMATE CHANGECORDEXEXTREME EVENTSPRECIPITATIONREGIONAL CLIMATE MODELSTEMPERATUREhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Climate hazards associated with compound events (CEs) have lately received increasing attention over South America (SA) due to their potential risks and amplification of impacts. This work addressed the evaluation of different temperature- and precipitation-based CE in SA considering the CORDEX-CORE ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving earth system models (ESMs) in the reference period 1981–2010 and the late 21st century (2070–2099), for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. The assessment focused on model performance for the individual events—heatwaves (HWs), Extreme rainfall (ER) days, and dry-spells (DSs)—and their compound occurrence in terms of climatological frequency and duration. The spatial patterns of individual events were adequately reproduced by the RCMs, evidencing general overestimations in extreme precipitation intensities. In terms of CE, the frequencies of coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) were remarkable over central-eastern Brazil and southern SA (southeastern SA). The main features of CE were generally well-simulated by the RCMs, although they presented regional differences such as an underestimation of the maximum frequencies of these two CE in northeastern Brazil and southeastern SA, respectively. The high-resolution information was generally in line with the larger-scale driving ESMs. The climate change signal analysis generally showed robust future increases in CE frequency and duration in different areas of SA, as for coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) over northern SA and southern Brazil (southeastern SA). This was mostly consistent among the RCMs ensemble and notably strengthened in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5).Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Weber, T.. Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; AlemaniaFil: Teichmann, C.. Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; AlemaniaFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaJohn Wiley & Sons2022-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/221610Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Weber, T.; Teichmann, C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario; John Wiley & Sons; Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; 127; 21; 10-2022; 1-202169-897X2169-8996CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022JD037708info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:11:11Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/221610instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:11:12.179CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
title Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
spellingShingle Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
CLIMATE CHANGE
CORDEX
EXTREME EVENTS
PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
TEMPERATURE
title_short Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
title_full Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
title_fullStr Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
title_full_unstemmed Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
title_sort Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Weber, T.
Teichmann, C.
Bettolli, Maria Laura
author Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
author_facet Olmo, Matías Ezequiel
Weber, T.
Teichmann, C.
Bettolli, Maria Laura
author_role author
author2 Weber, T.
Teichmann, C.
Bettolli, Maria Laura
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
CORDEX
EXTREME EVENTS
PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
TEMPERATURE
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
CORDEX
EXTREME EVENTS
PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
TEMPERATURE
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Climate hazards associated with compound events (CEs) have lately received increasing attention over South America (SA) due to their potential risks and amplification of impacts. This work addressed the evaluation of different temperature- and precipitation-based CE in SA considering the CORDEX-CORE ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving earth system models (ESMs) in the reference period 1981–2010 and the late 21st century (2070–2099), for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. The assessment focused on model performance for the individual events—heatwaves (HWs), Extreme rainfall (ER) days, and dry-spells (DSs)—and their compound occurrence in terms of climatological frequency and duration. The spatial patterns of individual events were adequately reproduced by the RCMs, evidencing general overestimations in extreme precipitation intensities. In terms of CE, the frequencies of coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) were remarkable over central-eastern Brazil and southern SA (southeastern SA). The main features of CE were generally well-simulated by the RCMs, although they presented regional differences such as an underestimation of the maximum frequencies of these two CE in northeastern Brazil and southeastern SA, respectively. The high-resolution information was generally in line with the larger-scale driving ESMs. The climate change signal analysis generally showed robust future increases in CE frequency and duration in different areas of SA, as for coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) over northern SA and southern Brazil (southeastern SA). This was mostly consistent among the RCMs ensemble and notably strengthened in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5).
Fil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Weber, T.. Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; Alemania
Fil: Teichmann, C.. Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; Alemania
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
description Climate hazards associated with compound events (CEs) have lately received increasing attention over South America (SA) due to their potential risks and amplification of impacts. This work addressed the evaluation of different temperature- and precipitation-based CE in SA considering the CORDEX-CORE ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving earth system models (ESMs) in the reference period 1981–2010 and the late 21st century (2070–2099), for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. The assessment focused on model performance for the individual events—heatwaves (HWs), Extreme rainfall (ER) days, and dry-spells (DSs)—and their compound occurrence in terms of climatological frequency and duration. The spatial patterns of individual events were adequately reproduced by the RCMs, evidencing general overestimations in extreme precipitation intensities. In terms of CE, the frequencies of coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) were remarkable over central-eastern Brazil and southern SA (southeastern SA). The main features of CE were generally well-simulated by the RCMs, although they presented regional differences such as an underestimation of the maximum frequencies of these two CE in northeastern Brazil and southeastern SA, respectively. The high-resolution information was generally in line with the larger-scale driving ESMs. The climate change signal analysis generally showed robust future increases in CE frequency and duration in different areas of SA, as for coincident HWs and DSs (sequential DSs and ER) over northern SA and southern Brazil (southeastern SA). This was mostly consistent among the RCMs ensemble and notably strengthened in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5).
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/221610
Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Weber, T.; Teichmann, C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario; John Wiley & Sons; Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; 127; 21; 10-2022; 1-20
2169-897X
2169-8996
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/221610
identifier_str_mv Olmo, Matías Ezequiel; Weber, T.; Teichmann, C.; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Compound events in South America using the CORDEX-CORE ensemble: Current climate conditions and future projections in a global warming scenario; John Wiley & Sons; Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; 127; 21; 10-2022; 1-20
2169-897X
2169-8996
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022JD037708
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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