Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America

Autores
Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Osman, Marisol
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Summer rainfall trends in southeastern South America (SE-SA) have received attention in recent decades because of their importance for climate impacts. More than one driving mechanism has been identified for the trends, some of which have opposing effects. It is still not clear how much each mechanism has contributed to the observed trends or how their combined influence will affect future changes. Here, we address the second question and study how the CMIP6 summer SE-SA rainfall response to greenhouse warming can be explained by mechanisms related to large-scale extratropical circulation responses in the Southern Hemisphere to remote drivers (RDs) of regional climate change. We find that the regional uncertainty is well represented by combining the influence of four RDs: tropical upper-tropospheric amplification of surface warming, the delay in the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown date, and two RDs characterizing recognized tropical Pacific SST warming patterns. Applying a storyline framework, we identify the combination of RD responses that lead to the most extreme drying and wetting scenarios. Although most scenarios involve wetting, SE-SA drying can result if high upper-tropospheric tropical warming and early stratospheric polar vortex breakdown conditions are combined with low central and eastern Pacific warming. We also show how the definition of the SE-SA regional box can impact the results since the spatial patterns characterizing the dynamical influences are complex and the rainfall changes can be averaged out if these are not considered when aggregating. This article’s perspective and the associated methodology are applicable to other regions of the globe.
Fil: Mindlin, Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Shepherd, Theodore Gordon. University of Reading; Reino Unido
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Materia
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNCERTAINTY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/224770
Acceder
id CONICETDig_d1fb129673397175af4f6faa3ea8ad1a
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/224770
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South AmericaMindlin, JuliaVera, Carolina SusanaShepherd, Theodore GordonOsman, MarisolATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONCLIMATE CHANGEUNCERTAINTYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Summer rainfall trends in southeastern South America (SE-SA) have received attention in recent decades because of their importance for climate impacts. More than one driving mechanism has been identified for the trends, some of which have opposing effects. It is still not clear how much each mechanism has contributed to the observed trends or how their combined influence will affect future changes. Here, we address the second question and study how the CMIP6 summer SE-SA rainfall response to greenhouse warming can be explained by mechanisms related to large-scale extratropical circulation responses in the Southern Hemisphere to remote drivers (RDs) of regional climate change. We find that the regional uncertainty is well represented by combining the influence of four RDs: tropical upper-tropospheric amplification of surface warming, the delay in the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown date, and two RDs characterizing recognized tropical Pacific SST warming patterns. Applying a storyline framework, we identify the combination of RD responses that lead to the most extreme drying and wetting scenarios. Although most scenarios involve wetting, SE-SA drying can result if high upper-tropospheric tropical warming and early stratospheric polar vortex breakdown conditions are combined with low central and eastern Pacific warming. We also show how the definition of the SE-SA regional box can impact the results since the spatial patterns characterizing the dynamical influences are complex and the rainfall changes can be averaged out if these are not considered when aggregating. This article’s perspective and the associated methodology are applicable to other regions of the globe.Fil: Mindlin, Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Shepherd, Theodore Gordon. University of Reading; Reino UnidoFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaAmer Meteorological Soc2023-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/224770Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Osman, Marisol; Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America; Amer Meteorological Soc; Journal Of Climate; 36; 22; 11-2023; 7973-79910894-8755CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/22/JCLI-D-23-0134.1.xmlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0134.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:05:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/224770instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:05:20.132CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
title Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
spellingShingle Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
Mindlin, Julia
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNCERTAINTY
title_short Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
title_full Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
title_fullStr Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
title_full_unstemmed Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
title_sort Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Mindlin, Julia
Vera, Carolina Susana
Shepherd, Theodore Gordon
Osman, Marisol
author Mindlin, Julia
author_facet Mindlin, Julia
Vera, Carolina Susana
Shepherd, Theodore Gordon
Osman, Marisol
author_role author
author2 Vera, Carolina Susana
Shepherd, Theodore Gordon
Osman, Marisol
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNCERTAINTY
topic ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
UNCERTAINTY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Summer rainfall trends in southeastern South America (SE-SA) have received attention in recent decades because of their importance for climate impacts. More than one driving mechanism has been identified for the trends, some of which have opposing effects. It is still not clear how much each mechanism has contributed to the observed trends or how their combined influence will affect future changes. Here, we address the second question and study how the CMIP6 summer SE-SA rainfall response to greenhouse warming can be explained by mechanisms related to large-scale extratropical circulation responses in the Southern Hemisphere to remote drivers (RDs) of regional climate change. We find that the regional uncertainty is well represented by combining the influence of four RDs: tropical upper-tropospheric amplification of surface warming, the delay in the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown date, and two RDs characterizing recognized tropical Pacific SST warming patterns. Applying a storyline framework, we identify the combination of RD responses that lead to the most extreme drying and wetting scenarios. Although most scenarios involve wetting, SE-SA drying can result if high upper-tropospheric tropical warming and early stratospheric polar vortex breakdown conditions are combined with low central and eastern Pacific warming. We also show how the definition of the SE-SA regional box can impact the results since the spatial patterns characterizing the dynamical influences are complex and the rainfall changes can be averaged out if these are not considered when aggregating. This article’s perspective and the associated methodology are applicable to other regions of the globe.
Fil: Mindlin, Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Shepherd, Theodore Gordon. University of Reading; Reino Unido
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
description Summer rainfall trends in southeastern South America (SE-SA) have received attention in recent decades because of their importance for climate impacts. More than one driving mechanism has been identified for the trends, some of which have opposing effects. It is still not clear how much each mechanism has contributed to the observed trends or how their combined influence will affect future changes. Here, we address the second question and study how the CMIP6 summer SE-SA rainfall response to greenhouse warming can be explained by mechanisms related to large-scale extratropical circulation responses in the Southern Hemisphere to remote drivers (RDs) of regional climate change. We find that the regional uncertainty is well represented by combining the influence of four RDs: tropical upper-tropospheric amplification of surface warming, the delay in the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown date, and two RDs characterizing recognized tropical Pacific SST warming patterns. Applying a storyline framework, we identify the combination of RD responses that lead to the most extreme drying and wetting scenarios. Although most scenarios involve wetting, SE-SA drying can result if high upper-tropospheric tropical warming and early stratospheric polar vortex breakdown conditions are combined with low central and eastern Pacific warming. We also show how the definition of the SE-SA regional box can impact the results since the spatial patterns characterizing the dynamical influences are complex and the rainfall changes can be averaged out if these are not considered when aggregating. This article’s perspective and the associated methodology are applicable to other regions of the globe.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/224770
Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Osman, Marisol; Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America; Amer Meteorological Soc; Journal Of Climate; 36; 22; 11-2023; 7973-7991
0894-8755
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/224770
identifier_str_mv Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Osman, Marisol; Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America; Amer Meteorological Soc; Journal Of Climate; 36; 22; 11-2023; 7973-7991
0894-8755
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/22/JCLI-D-23-0134.1.xml
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0134.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1842269905911545856
score 13.13397

Publicaciones similares