Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble

Autores
Tencer, Barbara; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America.
Fil: Tencer, Barbara. University Of Victoria; Canadá. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
COMPOUND EXTREMES
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59740
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59740
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensembleTencer, BarbaraBettolli, Maria LauraRusticucci, Matilde MonicaATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONCOMPOUND EXTREMESEXTREME TEMPERATUREHEAVY PRECIPITATIONREGIONAL CLIMATE MODELShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America.Fil: Tencer, Barbara. University Of Victoria; Canadá. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaInter-Research2016-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/59740Tencer, Barbara; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 68; 2-3; 5-2016; 183-1990936-577X1616-1572CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01396info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v68/n2-3/p183-199/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:57:00Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59740instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:57:00.925CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
spellingShingle Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
Tencer, Barbara
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
COMPOUND EXTREMES
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
title_short Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_full Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_fullStr Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_full_unstemmed Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
title_sort Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Tencer, Barbara
Bettolli, Maria Laura
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author Tencer, Barbara
author_facet Tencer, Barbara
Bettolli, Maria Laura
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author_role author
author2 Bettolli, Maria Laura
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
COMPOUND EXTREMES
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
topic ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
COMPOUND EXTREMES
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America.
Fil: Tencer, Barbara. University Of Victoria; Canadá. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description In this paper we analyse the joint distribution of extreme temperature and heavy precipitation events in southern South America during 1961-2000, and the predominant atmospheric circulation associated with the occurrence of compound extreme events. We show that the probability of occurrence of intense precipitation (daily rainfall higher than the 75th percentile) significantly increases during or following a warm night (minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile), but decreases during a cold night (minimum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) during the warm season. Heavy precipitation events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm days (maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile) or following such an event in eastern Argentina, but they rarely occur before. In contrast, cold days (maximum temperature lower than the 10th percentile) happen more often after an intense rain. Compound events are usually associated with 1 or 2 typical circulation patterns in each subregion. For example, warm days and heavy precipitation tends to occur more often when a trough over the Pacific Ocean and a cold front over the continent lead to warm and wet air advected to the east of the region of study. We also analysed the skill of 7 regional climate models from the CLARIS LPB project to simulate the statistical relationship between temperature and precipitation extremes in 1990-2000. Overall, models were able to simulate an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during warm nights and cold days, and an inhibition of precipitation during cold nights. However, models tend to fail to capture the spatial distribution of the compound extreme events in southeastern South America.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59740
Tencer, Barbara; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 68; 2-3; 5-2016; 183-199
0936-577X
1616-1572
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59740
identifier_str_mv Tencer, Barbara; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in southern South America: Associated atmospheric circulation, and simulations by a multi-RCM ensemble; Inter-Research; Climate Research; 68; 2-3; 5-2016; 183-199
0936-577X
1616-1572
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3354/cr01396
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v68/n2-3/p183-199/
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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