Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective

Autores
Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Doblas Reyes, F. J.; Gonzalez Reviriego, N.; Osman, Marisol; Terrado, M.
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Under the pressing warming of climate, interpretable and useful-for-adaptation information has become a need in society and has promoted rapid methodological advances in climate science. One such advance is the development of the dynamical-storyline approach, with which the spread in multi-model scenario projections can be represented as a set of physically plausible scenarios (storylines) defined by (a) a global warming level and (b) changes in large-scale dynamical conditions that arise from climate forcing. Moreover, if changes in regional climate are assessed in such a way that they can clearly inform societal systems or management of natural ecosystems, they can potentially aid decision-making in a practical manner. Such is the aim of the climatic impact-driver (CID) framework, proposed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we combine the dynamical-storyline approach with the CID framework and apply them to climate services. We focus on CIDs associated with the viticulture sector and the region of the South American Andes, where currently both Argentina and Chile produce wine. We explain the benefits of this approach from a communication and adaptation perspective. In particular, we found that the CIDs related to seasonally aggregated temperatures are mainly dependent on the global warming level although in some regions, but they can also be sensitive to changes in dynamical conditions. Meanwhile, CIDs related to extreme temperature values and precipitation depend strongly on the dynamical response. We show how adaptation to climate-related compound risks can be informed by a storyline approach, given that they can address compound uncertainty in multiple locations, variables and seasons.
Fil: Mindlin, Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Shepherd, Theodore Gordon. University Of Reading. Departament Of Meteorology; Reino Unido
Fil: Doblas Reyes, F. J.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España
Fil: Gonzalez Reviriego, N.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Alemania
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Terrado, M.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
Materia
CLIMATIC IMPACT-DRIVERS
VITICULTURE
STORYLINES
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261064
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspectiveMindlin, JuliaVera, Carolina SusanaShepherd, Theodore GordonDoblas Reyes, F. J.Gonzalez Reviriego, N.Osman, MarisolTerrado, M.CLIMATIC IMPACT-DRIVERSVITICULTURESTORYLINESMODEL UNCERTAINTYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Under the pressing warming of climate, interpretable and useful-for-adaptation information has become a need in society and has promoted rapid methodological advances in climate science. One such advance is the development of the dynamical-storyline approach, with which the spread in multi-model scenario projections can be represented as a set of physically plausible scenarios (storylines) defined by (a) a global warming level and (b) changes in large-scale dynamical conditions that arise from climate forcing. Moreover, if changes in regional climate are assessed in such a way that they can clearly inform societal systems or management of natural ecosystems, they can potentially aid decision-making in a practical manner. Such is the aim of the climatic impact-driver (CID) framework, proposed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we combine the dynamical-storyline approach with the CID framework and apply them to climate services. We focus on CIDs associated with the viticulture sector and the region of the South American Andes, where currently both Argentina and Chile produce wine. We explain the benefits of this approach from a communication and adaptation perspective. In particular, we found that the CIDs related to seasonally aggregated temperatures are mainly dependent on the global warming level although in some regions, but they can also be sensitive to changes in dynamical conditions. Meanwhile, CIDs related to extreme temperature values and precipitation depend strongly on the dynamical response. We show how adaptation to climate-related compound risks can be informed by a storyline approach, given that they can address compound uncertainty in multiple locations, variables and seasons.Fil: Mindlin, Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Shepherd, Theodore Gordon. University Of Reading. Departament Of Meteorology; Reino UnidoFil: Doblas Reyes, F. J.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; EspañaFil: Gonzalez Reviriego, N.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; AlemaniaFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Terrado, M.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaElsevier2024-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/261064Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Doblas Reyes, F. J.; Gonzalez Reviriego, N.; et al.; Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective; Elsevier; Climate Services; 34; 4-2024; 1-152405-8807CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880724000359info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:53:46Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/261064instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:53:46.495CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
title Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
spellingShingle Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
Mindlin, Julia
CLIMATIC IMPACT-DRIVERS
VITICULTURE
STORYLINES
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
title_short Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
title_full Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
title_fullStr Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
title_sort Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Mindlin, Julia
Vera, Carolina Susana
Shepherd, Theodore Gordon
Doblas Reyes, F. J.
Gonzalez Reviriego, N.
Osman, Marisol
Terrado, M.
author Mindlin, Julia
author_facet Mindlin, Julia
Vera, Carolina Susana
Shepherd, Theodore Gordon
Doblas Reyes, F. J.
Gonzalez Reviriego, N.
Osman, Marisol
Terrado, M.
author_role author
author2 Vera, Carolina Susana
Shepherd, Theodore Gordon
Doblas Reyes, F. J.
Gonzalez Reviriego, N.
Osman, Marisol
Terrado, M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATIC IMPACT-DRIVERS
VITICULTURE
STORYLINES
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
topic CLIMATIC IMPACT-DRIVERS
VITICULTURE
STORYLINES
MODEL UNCERTAINTY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Under the pressing warming of climate, interpretable and useful-for-adaptation information has become a need in society and has promoted rapid methodological advances in climate science. One such advance is the development of the dynamical-storyline approach, with which the spread in multi-model scenario projections can be represented as a set of physically plausible scenarios (storylines) defined by (a) a global warming level and (b) changes in large-scale dynamical conditions that arise from climate forcing. Moreover, if changes in regional climate are assessed in such a way that they can clearly inform societal systems or management of natural ecosystems, they can potentially aid decision-making in a practical manner. Such is the aim of the climatic impact-driver (CID) framework, proposed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we combine the dynamical-storyline approach with the CID framework and apply them to climate services. We focus on CIDs associated with the viticulture sector and the region of the South American Andes, where currently both Argentina and Chile produce wine. We explain the benefits of this approach from a communication and adaptation perspective. In particular, we found that the CIDs related to seasonally aggregated temperatures are mainly dependent on the global warming level although in some regions, but they can also be sensitive to changes in dynamical conditions. Meanwhile, CIDs related to extreme temperature values and precipitation depend strongly on the dynamical response. We show how adaptation to climate-related compound risks can be informed by a storyline approach, given that they can address compound uncertainty in multiple locations, variables and seasons.
Fil: Mindlin, Julia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Shepherd, Theodore Gordon. University Of Reading. Departament Of Meteorology; Reino Unido
Fil: Doblas Reyes, F. J.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España
Fil: Gonzalez Reviriego, N.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Alemania
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Terrado, M.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
description Under the pressing warming of climate, interpretable and useful-for-adaptation information has become a need in society and has promoted rapid methodological advances in climate science. One such advance is the development of the dynamical-storyline approach, with which the spread in multi-model scenario projections can be represented as a set of physically plausible scenarios (storylines) defined by (a) a global warming level and (b) changes in large-scale dynamical conditions that arise from climate forcing. Moreover, if changes in regional climate are assessed in such a way that they can clearly inform societal systems or management of natural ecosystems, they can potentially aid decision-making in a practical manner. Such is the aim of the climatic impact-driver (CID) framework, proposed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we combine the dynamical-storyline approach with the CID framework and apply them to climate services. We focus on CIDs associated with the viticulture sector and the region of the South American Andes, where currently both Argentina and Chile produce wine. We explain the benefits of this approach from a communication and adaptation perspective. In particular, we found that the CIDs related to seasonally aggregated temperatures are mainly dependent on the global warming level although in some regions, but they can also be sensitive to changes in dynamical conditions. Meanwhile, CIDs related to extreme temperature values and precipitation depend strongly on the dynamical response. We show how adaptation to climate-related compound risks can be informed by a storyline approach, given that they can address compound uncertainty in multiple locations, variables and seasons.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/261064
Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Doblas Reyes, F. J.; Gonzalez Reviriego, N.; et al.; Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective; Elsevier; Climate Services; 34; 4-2024; 1-15
2405-8807
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/261064
identifier_str_mv Mindlin, Julia; Vera, Carolina Susana; Shepherd, Theodore Gordon; Doblas Reyes, F. J.; Gonzalez Reviriego, N.; et al.; Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective; Elsevier; Climate Services; 34; 4-2024; 1-15
2405-8807
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880724000359
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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