Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina

Autores
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Año de publicación
2019
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Extreme cold events can cause crop damage as well as an increase in energy demand and even in the mortality rate. Identifying the atmospheric processes associated with the occurrence of these extremes would allow decision-makers to implement preventive and mitigation actions. The goal of this study is to identify predictors of cold extremes of minimum temperature during winter in Argentina (north of 40 °S), and their modulation by the different El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases for the period 1970?2015. Lagged correlation analysis between winter cold nights and several global and regional climate indices identified ENSO, subtropical jet intensity, position and intensity of the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), and a blocking index as the dominating forcings. The El Niño phase is associated with a decrease in the occurrence of cold extremes. In addition, an increase in the number of blocking events together with a weaker subtropical jet and, a less intense and northward shift of the SPA also inhibit the occurrence of cold extremes of the minimum temperature. Our results indicate persistence in the winter cold nights series compared with the previous season in eastern Argentina. Twowinters with opposite extreme conditions (high and low frequency of cold nights) were selected as case studies. Since both cases occurred under ENSO neutral conditions, we also searched for cold nights predictors consideringonly neutral years. We detected the presence of an equivalent barotropic structure located in southeastern Pacific in both events, which confirmed the importance of the SPA intensity and blocking events as predictors in absenceof an active El Niño.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
SEASONAL FORECAST
PREDICTABILITY
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
CLIMATE PREDICTION
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE INDICES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/148662
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in ArgentinaCollazo, Soledad MaribelBarrucand, Mariana GracielaRusticucci, Matilde MonicaSEASONAL FORECASTPREDICTABILITYEXTREME TEMPERATURECLIMATE PREDICTIONARGENTINACLIMATE INDICEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Extreme cold events can cause crop damage as well as an increase in energy demand and even in the mortality rate. Identifying the atmospheric processes associated with the occurrence of these extremes would allow decision-makers to implement preventive and mitigation actions. The goal of this study is to identify predictors of cold extremes of minimum temperature during winter in Argentina (north of 40 °S), and their modulation by the different El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases for the period 1970?2015. Lagged correlation analysis between winter cold nights and several global and regional climate indices identified ENSO, subtropical jet intensity, position and intensity of the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), and a blocking index as the dominating forcings. The El Niño phase is associated with a decrease in the occurrence of cold extremes. In addition, an increase in the number of blocking events together with a weaker subtropical jet and, a less intense and northward shift of the SPA also inhibit the occurrence of cold extremes of the minimum temperature. Our results indicate persistence in the winter cold nights series compared with the previous season in eastern Argentina. Twowinters with opposite extreme conditions (high and low frequency of cold nights) were selected as case studies. Since both cases occurred under ENSO neutral conditions, we also searched for cold nights predictors consideringonly neutral years. We detected the presence of an equivalent barotropic structure located in southeastern Pacific in both events, which confirmed the importance of the SPA intensity and blocking events as predictors in absenceof an active El Niño.Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaElsevier2019-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/148662Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 26; 100236; 10-2019; 1-152212-0947CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100236info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300040info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:42:34Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/148662instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:42:34.339CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
title Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
spellingShingle Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
Collazo, Soledad Maribel
SEASONAL FORECAST
PREDICTABILITY
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
CLIMATE PREDICTION
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE INDICES
title_short Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
title_full Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
title_fullStr Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
title_sort Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Collazo, Soledad Maribel
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author Collazo, Soledad Maribel
author_facet Collazo, Soledad Maribel
Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author_role author
author2 Barrucand, Mariana Graciela
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv SEASONAL FORECAST
PREDICTABILITY
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
CLIMATE PREDICTION
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE INDICES
topic SEASONAL FORECAST
PREDICTABILITY
EXTREME TEMPERATURE
CLIMATE PREDICTION
ARGENTINA
CLIMATE INDICES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Extreme cold events can cause crop damage as well as an increase in energy demand and even in the mortality rate. Identifying the atmospheric processes associated with the occurrence of these extremes would allow decision-makers to implement preventive and mitigation actions. The goal of this study is to identify predictors of cold extremes of minimum temperature during winter in Argentina (north of 40 °S), and their modulation by the different El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases for the period 1970?2015. Lagged correlation analysis between winter cold nights and several global and regional climate indices identified ENSO, subtropical jet intensity, position and intensity of the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), and a blocking index as the dominating forcings. The El Niño phase is associated with a decrease in the occurrence of cold extremes. In addition, an increase in the number of blocking events together with a weaker subtropical jet and, a less intense and northward shift of the SPA also inhibit the occurrence of cold extremes of the minimum temperature. Our results indicate persistence in the winter cold nights series compared with the previous season in eastern Argentina. Twowinters with opposite extreme conditions (high and low frequency of cold nights) were selected as case studies. Since both cases occurred under ENSO neutral conditions, we also searched for cold nights predictors consideringonly neutral years. We detected the presence of an equivalent barotropic structure located in southeastern Pacific in both events, which confirmed the importance of the SPA intensity and blocking events as predictors in absenceof an active El Niño.
Fil: Collazo, Soledad Maribel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Barrucand, Mariana Graciela. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description Extreme cold events can cause crop damage as well as an increase in energy demand and even in the mortality rate. Identifying the atmospheric processes associated with the occurrence of these extremes would allow decision-makers to implement preventive and mitigation actions. The goal of this study is to identify predictors of cold extremes of minimum temperature during winter in Argentina (north of 40 °S), and their modulation by the different El Ni~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases for the period 1970?2015. Lagged correlation analysis between winter cold nights and several global and regional climate indices identified ENSO, subtropical jet intensity, position and intensity of the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), and a blocking index as the dominating forcings. The El Niño phase is associated with a decrease in the occurrence of cold extremes. In addition, an increase in the number of blocking events together with a weaker subtropical jet and, a less intense and northward shift of the SPA also inhibit the occurrence of cold extremes of the minimum temperature. Our results indicate persistence in the winter cold nights series compared with the previous season in eastern Argentina. Twowinters with opposite extreme conditions (high and low frequency of cold nights) were selected as case studies. Since both cases occurred under ENSO neutral conditions, we also searched for cold nights predictors consideringonly neutral years. We detected the presence of an equivalent barotropic structure located in southeastern Pacific in both events, which confirmed the importance of the SPA intensity and blocking events as predictors in absenceof an active El Niño.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/148662
Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 26; 100236; 10-2019; 1-15
2212-0947
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/148662
identifier_str_mv Collazo, Soledad Maribel; Barrucand, Mariana Graciela; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Variability and predictability of winter cold nights in Argentina; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 26; 100236; 10-2019; 1-15
2212-0947
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100236
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300040
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.069144

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