Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina

Autores
Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Wilhelm, María Sol; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Lovino, Miguel Angel
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper analyses historical climate conditions and future climate projections in central-easternArgentina, focusing on temperature and precipitation patterns. The study assesses the ability ofCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models to representhistorical climate variability and generates projections of precipitation and temperature underthree combined socioeconomic and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 21st Century.Historical analysis for the 1901–2014 period reveals high correlations between model-simulatedand observed temperature. Precipitation simulations are less accurate; however, bias correctionintroduces notable improvements. Although the models properly recognise mean annual temperature and precipitation cycles, biases appear in the reproduction of the spatial patterns ofthese variables. Future projections indicate a significant increase in mean annual temperatureacross all scenarios, with the highest temperature rise in a fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, highlighting the importance of emissions mitigation. Precipitation is projected to increase in allscenarios, particularly in the western part of the study region, with potential implications forhydrology and agriculture. This study emphasises the need for ongoing research and monitoringto enhance our understanding of regional climate vulnerability and to inform local adaptationstrategies in the face of a changing climate.
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Wilhelm, María Sol. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Materia
central-eastern Argentina
CMIP6
future projections
model evaluation
precipitation variability
temperature trends
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/277005
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/277005
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern ArgentinaMuller, Gabriela VivianaWilhelm, María SolPierrestegui, Maria JosefinaLovino, Miguel Angelcentral-eastern ArgentinaCMIP6future projectionsmodel evaluationprecipitation variabilitytemperature trendshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This paper analyses historical climate conditions and future climate projections in central-easternArgentina, focusing on temperature and precipitation patterns. The study assesses the ability ofCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models to representhistorical climate variability and generates projections of precipitation and temperature underthree combined socioeconomic and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 21st Century.Historical analysis for the 1901–2014 period reveals high correlations between model-simulatedand observed temperature. Precipitation simulations are less accurate; however, bias correctionintroduces notable improvements. Although the models properly recognise mean annual temperature and precipitation cycles, biases appear in the reproduction of the spatial patterns ofthese variables. Future projections indicate a significant increase in mean annual temperatureacross all scenarios, with the highest temperature rise in a fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, highlighting the importance of emissions mitigation. Precipitation is projected to increase in allscenarios, particularly in the western part of the study region, with potential implications forhydrology and agriculture. This study emphasises the need for ongoing research and monitoringto enhance our understanding of regional climate vulnerability and to inform local adaptationstrategies in the face of a changing climate.Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Wilhelm, María Sol. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; ArgentinaFil: Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaCsiro Publishing2025-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/277005Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Wilhelm, María Sol; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina; Csiro Publishing; Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science; 75; 3; 11-2025; 1-162206-5865CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://connectsci.au/es/article/75/3/ES25027/265543/Historical-performance-and-future-climateinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1071/ES25027info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-12-17T14:17:32Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/277005instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-12-17 14:17:32.638CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
title Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
spellingShingle Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
central-eastern Argentina
CMIP6
future projections
model evaluation
precipitation variability
temperature trends
title_short Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
title_full Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
title_fullStr Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
title_sort Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Wilhelm, María Sol
Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina
Lovino, Miguel Angel
author Muller, Gabriela Viviana
author_facet Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Wilhelm, María Sol
Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina
Lovino, Miguel Angel
author_role author
author2 Wilhelm, María Sol
Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina
Lovino, Miguel Angel
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv central-eastern Argentina
CMIP6
future projections
model evaluation
precipitation variability
temperature trends
topic central-eastern Argentina
CMIP6
future projections
model evaluation
precipitation variability
temperature trends
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper analyses historical climate conditions and future climate projections in central-easternArgentina, focusing on temperature and precipitation patterns. The study assesses the ability ofCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models to representhistorical climate variability and generates projections of precipitation and temperature underthree combined socioeconomic and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 21st Century.Historical analysis for the 1901–2014 period reveals high correlations between model-simulatedand observed temperature. Precipitation simulations are less accurate; however, bias correctionintroduces notable improvements. Although the models properly recognise mean annual temperature and precipitation cycles, biases appear in the reproduction of the spatial patterns ofthese variables. Future projections indicate a significant increase in mean annual temperatureacross all scenarios, with the highest temperature rise in a fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, highlighting the importance of emissions mitigation. Precipitation is projected to increase in allscenarios, particularly in the western part of the study region, with potential implications forhydrology and agriculture. This study emphasises the need for ongoing research and monitoringto enhance our understanding of regional climate vulnerability and to inform local adaptationstrategies in the face of a changing climate.
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Wilhelm, María Sol. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina
Fil: Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas. Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climatico.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
description This paper analyses historical climate conditions and future climate projections in central-easternArgentina, focusing on temperature and precipitation patterns. The study assesses the ability ofCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models to representhistorical climate variability and generates projections of precipitation and temperature underthree combined socioeconomic and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 21st Century.Historical analysis for the 1901–2014 period reveals high correlations between model-simulatedand observed temperature. Precipitation simulations are less accurate; however, bias correctionintroduces notable improvements. Although the models properly recognise mean annual temperature and precipitation cycles, biases appear in the reproduction of the spatial patterns ofthese variables. Future projections indicate a significant increase in mean annual temperatureacross all scenarios, with the highest temperature rise in a fossil-fuel-intensive scenario, highlighting the importance of emissions mitigation. Precipitation is projected to increase in allscenarios, particularly in the western part of the study region, with potential implications forhydrology and agriculture. This study emphasises the need for ongoing research and monitoringto enhance our understanding of regional climate vulnerability and to inform local adaptationstrategies in the face of a changing climate.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/277005
Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Wilhelm, María Sol; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina; Csiro Publishing; Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science; 75; 3; 11-2025; 1-16
2206-5865
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/277005
identifier_str_mv Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Wilhelm, María Sol; Pierrestegui, Maria Josefina; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Historical performance and future climate projections from CMIP6 models in central-eastern Argentina; Csiro Publishing; Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science; 75; 3; 11-2025; 1-16
2206-5865
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://connectsci.au/es/article/75/3/ES25027/265543/Historical-performance-and-future-climate
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1071/ES25027
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Csiro Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Csiro Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1851851968715161600
score 13.176297

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