Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century

Autores
Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Raga, Graciela B.
Año de publicación
2018
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980–2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980–2005, are projected by 2040–2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075–2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20–60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.
Fil: Zazulie, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Raga, Graciela B.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
Materia
Cmip5 Models
Elevation-Dependent Warming
Future Projections
Model Evaluation
Subtropical Central Andes
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/68001

id CONICETDig_000ba6f68800687a1b7cd18e744f7ec7
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/68001
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first centuryZazulie, NataliaRusticucci, Matilde MonicaRaga, Graciela B.Cmip5 ModelsElevation-Dependent WarmingFuture ProjectionsModel EvaluationSubtropical Central Andeshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980–2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980–2005, are projected by 2040–2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075–2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20–60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.Fil: Zazulie, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Raga, Graciela B.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoSpringer2018-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/68001Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Raga, Graciela B.; Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 51; 7-8; 10-2018; 2913-29250930-75751432-0894CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-4056-4info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-017-4056-4info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:53:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/68001instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:53:19.886CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
title Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
spellingShingle Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
Zazulie, Natalia
Cmip5 Models
Elevation-Dependent Warming
Future Projections
Model Evaluation
Subtropical Central Andes
title_short Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
title_full Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
title_fullStr Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
title_full_unstemmed Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
title_sort Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Zazulie, Natalia
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Raga, Graciela B.
author Zazulie, Natalia
author_facet Zazulie, Natalia
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Raga, Graciela B.
author_role author
author2 Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Raga, Graciela B.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cmip5 Models
Elevation-Dependent Warming
Future Projections
Model Evaluation
Subtropical Central Andes
topic Cmip5 Models
Elevation-Dependent Warming
Future Projections
Model Evaluation
Subtropical Central Andes
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980–2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980–2005, are projected by 2040–2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075–2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20–60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.
Fil: Zazulie, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Raga, Graciela B.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
description In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980–2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980–2005, are projected by 2040–2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075–2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20–60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/68001
Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Raga, Graciela B.; Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 51; 7-8; 10-2018; 2913-2925
0930-7575
1432-0894
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/68001
identifier_str_mv Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Raga, Graciela B.; Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 51; 7-8; 10-2018; 2913-2925
0930-7575
1432-0894
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-4056-4
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-017-4056-4
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1844613629897342976
score 13.070432