Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5

Autores
Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos; Pinto Júnior, Osmar; Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos; Lima, Francisco José Lopes de; Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de; Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de; Avila, Eldo Edgardo; Pedernera, Débora Analía
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil.
Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Brazil and the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is a growing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences. In this context, this work presents the development of a methodology for the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil), using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climate change scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variable of climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship between the observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are known as outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT detection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections, it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climate we observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in the scenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of high emissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidence in the State of São Paulo.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil.
Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Investigación Climatológica
Materia
Lightning
Climatic projections
Southeastern Brazil
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
Repositorio
Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
OAI Identificador
oai:rdu.unc.edu.ar:11086/552549
Acceder
id RDUUNC_d466a8e09398a7e48daf98580a072858
oai_identifier_str oai:rdu.unc.edu.ar:11086/552549
network_acronym_str RDUUNC
repository_id_str 2572
network_name_str Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
spelling Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5Santos, Ana Paula Paes dosPinto Júnior, OsmarSantos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dosLima, Francisco José Lopes deSouza, Everaldo Barreiros deMorais, André Arruda Rodrigues deAvila, Eldo EdgardoPedernera, Débora AnalíaLightningClimatic projectionsSoutheastern BrazilFil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil.Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Brazil and the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is a growing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences. In this context, this work presents the development of a methodology for the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil), using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climate change scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variable of climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship between the observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are known as outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT detection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections, it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climate we observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in the scenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of high emissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidence in the State of São Paulo.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionFil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil.Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.Investigación Climatológicahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7736-7818https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4651-1741https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8269-4805https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6313-98682017info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/octet-streamSantos, A. P. P., Pinto Júnior, O., Santos, S. R. Q., Lima, F. J. L., Souza, E. B., Morais, A. A. R., Ávila, E. E. y Pedernera, D. A. (2017). Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. American Journal of Climate Change, 6 (3), 539-553. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.630272167-9495http://hdl.handle.net/11086/5525492167-9509enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)instname:Universidad Nacional de Córdobainstacron:UNC2025-09-29T13:43:41Zoai:rdu.unc.edu.ar:11086/552549Institucionalhttps://rdu.unc.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://rdu.unc.edu.ar/oai/snrdoca.unc@gmail.comArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:25722025-09-29 13:43:41.855Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC) - Universidad Nacional de Córdobafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
spellingShingle Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos
Lightning
Climatic projections
Southeastern Brazil
title_short Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_full Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_fullStr Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_full_unstemmed Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_sort Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos
Pinto Júnior, Osmar
Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos
Lima, Francisco José Lopes de
Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de
Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de
Avila, Eldo Edgardo
Pedernera, Débora Analía
author Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos
author_facet Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos
Pinto Júnior, Osmar
Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos
Lima, Francisco José Lopes de
Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de
Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de
Avila, Eldo Edgardo
Pedernera, Débora Analía
author_role author
author2 Pinto Júnior, Osmar
Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos
Lima, Francisco José Lopes de
Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de
Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de
Avila, Eldo Edgardo
Pedernera, Débora Analía
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7736-7818
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4651-1741
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8269-4805
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6313-9868
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Lightning
Climatic projections
Southeastern Brazil
topic Lightning
Climatic projections
Southeastern Brazil
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil.
Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Brazil and the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is a growing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences. In this context, this work presents the development of a methodology for the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil), using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climate change scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variable of climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship between the observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are known as outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT detection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections, it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climate we observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in the scenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of high emissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidence in the State of São Paulo.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil.
Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina.
Investigación Climatológica
description Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
status_str publishedVersion
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv Santos, A. P. P., Pinto Júnior, O., Santos, S. R. Q., Lima, F. J. L., Souza, E. B., Morais, A. A. R., Ávila, E. E. y Pedernera, D. A. (2017). Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. American Journal of Climate Change, 6 (3), 539-553. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027
2167-9495
http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552549
2167-9509
identifier_str_mv Santos, A. P. P., Pinto Júnior, O., Santos, S. R. Q., Lima, F. J. L., Souza, E. B., Morais, A. A. R., Ávila, E. E. y Pedernera, D. A. (2017). Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. American Journal of Climate Change, 6 (3), 539-553. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027
2167-9495
2167-9509
url http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552549
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/octet-stream
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
instname:Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
instacron:UNC
reponame_str Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
collection Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
instacron_str UNC
institution UNC
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC) - Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
repository.mail.fl_str_mv oca.unc@gmail.com
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score 13.070432

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