Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
- Autores
- Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda; Avila, Eldo Edgardo; Pedernera, Analía
- Año de publicación
- 2017
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo.
Fil: Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Júnior, Osmar Pinto. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Lopes de Lima, Francisco José. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros. Vale Institute of Technology; Brasil
Fil: Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Avila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Pedernera, Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina - Materia
-
Lightning
Climatic Projections
Southeastern Brazil - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/64791
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Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5Paes dos Santos, Ana PaulaJúnior, Osmar Pintodos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo QuadrosLopes de Lima, Francisco Joséde Souza, Everaldo BarreirosRodrigues de Morais, André ArrudaAvila, Eldo EdgardoPedernera, AnalíaLightningClimatic ProjectionsSoutheastern Brazilhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo.Fil: Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Júnior, Osmar Pinto. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Lopes de Lima, Francisco José. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros. Vale Institute of Technology; BrasilFil: Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Avila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Pedernera, Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; ArgentinaScientific Research Publishing2017-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/64791Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; et al.; Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; Scientific Research Publishing; American Journal of Climate Change; 06; 03; 1-9-2017; 539-5532167-94952167-9509CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://file.scirp.org/Html/5-2360529_78877.htminfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:51:53Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/64791instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:51:54.02CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
title |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula Lightning Climatic Projections Southeastern Brazil |
title_short |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
title_full |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
title_fullStr |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
title_sort |
Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula Júnior, Osmar Pinto dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros Lopes de Lima, Francisco José de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Analía |
author |
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula |
author_facet |
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula Júnior, Osmar Pinto dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros Lopes de Lima, Francisco José de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Analía |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Júnior, Osmar Pinto dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros Lopes de Lima, Francisco José de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Analía |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Lightning Climatic Projections Southeastern Brazil |
topic |
Lightning Climatic Projections Southeastern Brazil |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo. Fil: Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: Júnior, Osmar Pinto. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: Lopes de Lima, Francisco José. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros. Vale Institute of Technology; Brasil Fil: Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil Fil: Avila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina Fil: Pedernera, Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina |
description |
Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-09-01 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/64791 Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; et al.; Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; Scientific Research Publishing; American Journal of Climate Change; 06; 03; 1-9-2017; 539-553 2167-9495 2167-9509 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/64791 |
identifier_str_mv |
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; et al.; Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; Scientific Research Publishing; American Journal of Climate Change; 06; 03; 1-9-2017; 539-553 2167-9495 2167-9509 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://file.scirp.org/Html/5-2360529_78877.htm |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Scientific Research Publishing |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Scientific Research Publishing |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613593183551488 |
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13.070432 |