Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5

Autores
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda; Avila, Eldo Edgardo; Pedernera, Analía
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo.
Fil: Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Júnior, Osmar Pinto. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Lopes de Lima, Francisco José. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros. Vale Institute of Technology; Brasil
Fil: Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Avila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Pedernera, Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina
Materia
Lightning
Climatic Projections
Southeastern Brazil
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/64791
Acceder
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spelling Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5Paes dos Santos, Ana PaulaJúnior, Osmar Pintodos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo QuadrosLopes de Lima, Francisco Joséde Souza, Everaldo BarreirosRodrigues de Morais, André ArrudaAvila, Eldo EdgardoPedernera, AnalíaLightningClimatic ProjectionsSoutheastern Brazilhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo.Fil: Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Júnior, Osmar Pinto. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Lopes de Lima, Francisco José. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros. Vale Institute of Technology; BrasilFil: Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Avila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Pedernera, Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; ArgentinaScientific Research Publishing2017-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/64791Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; et al.; Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; Scientific Research Publishing; American Journal of Climate Change; 06; 03; 1-9-2017; 539-5532167-94952167-9509CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://file.scirp.org/Html/5-2360529_78877.htminfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:21:17Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/64791instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:21:18.094CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
spellingShingle Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula
Lightning
Climatic Projections
Southeastern Brazil
title_short Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_full Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_fullStr Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_full_unstemmed Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
title_sort Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula
Júnior, Osmar Pinto
dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros
Lopes de Lima, Francisco José
de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros
Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda
Avila, Eldo Edgardo
Pedernera, Analía
author Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula
author_facet Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula
Júnior, Osmar Pinto
dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros
Lopes de Lima, Francisco José
de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros
Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda
Avila, Eldo Edgardo
Pedernera, Analía
author_role author
author2 Júnior, Osmar Pinto
dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros
Lopes de Lima, Francisco José
de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros
Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda
Avila, Eldo Edgardo
Pedernera, Analía
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Lightning
Climatic Projections
Southeastern Brazil
topic Lightning
Climatic Projections
Southeastern Brazil
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo.
Fil: Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Júnior, Osmar Pinto. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Lopes de Lima, Francisco José. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros. Vale Institute of Technology; Brasil
Fil: Rodrigues de Morais, André Arruda. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Avila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina
Fil: Pedernera, Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina
description Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Braziland the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is agrowing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences.In this context, this work presents the development of a methodologyfor the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil),using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climatechange scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variableof climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship betweenthe observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are knownas outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDATdetection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections,it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climatewe observed events of lightning below the average, the future climatereveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in thescenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of highemissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidencein the State of São Paulo.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-09-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/64791
Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; et al.; Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; Scientific Research Publishing; American Journal of Climate Change; 06; 03; 1-9-2017; 539-553
2167-9495
2167-9509
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/64791
identifier_str_mv Paes dos Santos, Ana Paula; Júnior, Osmar Pinto; dos Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros; Lopes de Lima, Francisco José; de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros; et al.; Climatic Projections of Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5; Scientific Research Publishing; American Journal of Climate Change; 06; 03; 1-9-2017; 539-553
2167-9495
2167-9509
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://file.scirp.org/Html/5-2360529_78877.htm
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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