Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito

Autores
Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo
Año de publicación
2010
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Materia
Aedes Aegypti
Dengue
Eco-Epidemiology
Stochastic Models
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59096
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquitoOtero, Marcelo JavierSolari, Hernan GustavoAedes AegyptiDengueEco-EpidemiologyStochastic Modelshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaElsevier Science Inc2010-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/59096Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito; Elsevier Science Inc; Mathematical Biosciences; 223; 1; 1-2010; 32-460025-5564CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.mbs.2009.10.005info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:56:16Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59096instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:56:17.164CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
spellingShingle Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
Otero, Marcelo Javier
Aedes Aegypti
Dengue
Eco-Epidemiology
Stochastic Models
title_short Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_full Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_fullStr Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_full_unstemmed Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
title_sort Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Otero, Marcelo Javier
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author Otero, Marcelo Javier
author_facet Otero, Marcelo Javier
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author_role author
author2 Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Aedes Aegypti
Dengue
Eco-Epidemiology
Stochastic Models
topic Aedes Aegypti
Dengue
Eco-Epidemiology
Stochastic Models
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina
description We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that takes into account seasonal and spatial dynamics of the vector Aedes aegypti. It describes disease dynamics triggered by the arrival of infected people in a city. We show that the probability of an epidemic outbreak depends on seasonal variation in temperature and on the availability of breeding sites. We also show that the arrival date of an infected human in a susceptible population dramatically affects the distribution of the final size of epidemics and that early outbreaks have a low probability. However, early outbreaks are likely to produce large epidemics because they have a longer time to evolve before the winter extinction of vectors. Our model could be used to estimate the risk and final size of epidemic outbreaks in regions with seasonal climatic variations. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59096
Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito; Elsevier Science Inc; Mathematical Biosciences; 223; 1; 1-2010; 32-46
0025-5564
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59096
identifier_str_mv Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Stochastic eco-epidemiological model of dengue disease transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquito; Elsevier Science Inc; Mathematical Biosciences; 223; 1; 1-2010; 32-46
0025-5564
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.mbs.2009.10.005
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science Inc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science Inc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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