Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis

Autores
Gurevitz, Juan Manuel; Antman, Julián Gustavo; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Morales, Juan Manuel
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.
Fil: Gurevitz, Juan Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
Fil: Antman, Julián Gustavo. Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud; Argentina
Fil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina
Fil: Morales, Juan Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
Materia
DENGUE FEVER
EPIDEMIOLOGY
AEDES AEGYPTI
SPATIAL ANALYSIS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/157357
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolisGurevitz, Juan ManuelAntman, Julián GustavoLaneri, Karina FabianaMorales, Juan ManuelDENGUE FEVEREPIDEMIOLOGYAEDES AEGYPTISPATIAL ANALYSIShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.Fil: Gurevitz, Juan Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Antman, Julián Gustavo. Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud; ArgentinaFil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; ArgentinaFil: Morales, Juan Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaPublic Library of Science2021-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/157357Gurevitz, Juan Manuel; Antman, Julián Gustavo; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Morales, Juan Manuel; Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis; Public Library of Science; Neglected Tropical Diseases; 15; 6; 6-20211935-2735CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:00:21Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/157357instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:00:21.325CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
title Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
spellingShingle Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
Gurevitz, Juan Manuel
DENGUE FEVER
EPIDEMIOLOGY
AEDES AEGYPTI
SPATIAL ANALYSIS
title_short Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
title_full Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
title_fullStr Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
title_full_unstemmed Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
title_sort Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Gurevitz, Juan Manuel
Antman, Julián Gustavo
Laneri, Karina Fabiana
Morales, Juan Manuel
author Gurevitz, Juan Manuel
author_facet Gurevitz, Juan Manuel
Antman, Julián Gustavo
Laneri, Karina Fabiana
Morales, Juan Manuel
author_role author
author2 Antman, Julián Gustavo
Laneri, Karina Fabiana
Morales, Juan Manuel
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv DENGUE FEVER
EPIDEMIOLOGY
AEDES AEGYPTI
SPATIAL ANALYSIS
topic DENGUE FEVER
EPIDEMIOLOGY
AEDES AEGYPTI
SPATIAL ANALYSIS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.
Fil: Gurevitz, Juan Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
Fil: Antman, Julián Gustavo. Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud; Argentina
Fil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina
Fil: Morales, Juan Manuel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
description Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/157357
Gurevitz, Juan Manuel; Antman, Julián Gustavo; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Morales, Juan Manuel; Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis; Public Library of Science; Neglected Tropical Diseases; 15; 6; 6-2021
1935-2735
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/157357
identifier_str_mv Gurevitz, Juan Manuel; Antman, Julián Gustavo; Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Morales, Juan Manuel; Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis; Public Library of Science; Neglected Tropical Diseases; 15; 6; 6-2021
1935-2735
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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