Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina

Autores
Dominguez, Diana A.; González, Marcela Hebe
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
español castellano
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper attempts to understand the rainfall interannual variability in order to predict seasonal precipitation using a linear regression model. This work analyze summer precipitation (December, January and February) in central-west Argentina based on comparing the behavior of previous (in November) atmospheric and oceanic variables in extreme years with drought and excess precipitation. The main predictors were geopotential height and warming of central Pacific Ocean. Generally,higher than normal precipitation cases were associated with the weakening of the subtropical high and subpolar low, a weakening of zonal flow and therefore greater energy exchange between low and high latitudes and warm anomalies of sea surface temperature in November in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This analysis allowed us to define, predictors that were used to generate a multiple linear regression model using forward stepwise methodology which explained 28% of variance of summer precipitation.
Fil: Dominguez, Diana A.. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Materia
PRECIPITACION
PREDICCION ESTACIONAL
ESTADISTICA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4514
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da ArgentinaStatistical prediction of summer rainfall in central west ArgentinaDominguez, Diana A.González, Marcela HebePRECIPITACIONPREDICCION ESTACIONALESTADISTICAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This paper attempts to understand the rainfall interannual variability in order to predict seasonal precipitation using a linear regression model. This work analyze summer precipitation (December, January and February) in central-west Argentina based on comparing the behavior of previous (in November) atmospheric and oceanic variables in extreme years with drought and excess precipitation. The main predictors were geopotential height and warming of central Pacific Ocean. Generally,higher than normal precipitation cases were associated with the weakening of the subtropical high and subpolar low, a weakening of zonal flow and therefore greater energy exchange between low and high latitudes and warm anomalies of sea surface temperature in November in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This analysis allowed us to define, predictors that were used to generate a multiple linear regression model using forward stepwise methodology which explained 28% of variance of summer precipitation.Fil: Dominguez, Diana A.. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: González, Marcela Hebe. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaUniversidade Federal de Santa María2015-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4514Dominguez, Diana A.; González, Marcela Hebe; Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina; Universidade Federal de Santa María; Ciencia E Natura; 37; Ed. especial SIC; 1-2015; 75-820100-8307spainfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://cascavel.ufsm.br/revistas/ojs-2.2.2/index.php/cienciaenatura/article/view/16219info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5902/2179460X16219info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0100-8307info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:54:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4514instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:54:02.44CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
Statistical prediction of summer rainfall in central west Argentina
title Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
spellingShingle Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
Dominguez, Diana A.
PRECIPITACION
PREDICCION ESTACIONAL
ESTADISTICA
title_short Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
title_full Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
title_fullStr Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
title_sort Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Dominguez, Diana A.
González, Marcela Hebe
author Dominguez, Diana A.
author_facet Dominguez, Diana A.
González, Marcela Hebe
author_role author
author2 González, Marcela Hebe
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PRECIPITACION
PREDICCION ESTACIONAL
ESTADISTICA
topic PRECIPITACION
PREDICCION ESTACIONAL
ESTADISTICA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper attempts to understand the rainfall interannual variability in order to predict seasonal precipitation using a linear regression model. This work analyze summer precipitation (December, January and February) in central-west Argentina based on comparing the behavior of previous (in November) atmospheric and oceanic variables in extreme years with drought and excess precipitation. The main predictors were geopotential height and warming of central Pacific Ocean. Generally,higher than normal precipitation cases were associated with the weakening of the subtropical high and subpolar low, a weakening of zonal flow and therefore greater energy exchange between low and high latitudes and warm anomalies of sea surface temperature in November in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This analysis allowed us to define, predictors that were used to generate a multiple linear regression model using forward stepwise methodology which explained 28% of variance of summer precipitation.
Fil: Dominguez, Diana A.. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
description This paper attempts to understand the rainfall interannual variability in order to predict seasonal precipitation using a linear regression model. This work analyze summer precipitation (December, January and February) in central-west Argentina based on comparing the behavior of previous (in November) atmospheric and oceanic variables in extreme years with drought and excess precipitation. The main predictors were geopotential height and warming of central Pacific Ocean. Generally,higher than normal precipitation cases were associated with the weakening of the subtropical high and subpolar low, a weakening of zonal flow and therefore greater energy exchange between low and high latitudes and warm anomalies of sea surface temperature in November in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This analysis allowed us to define, predictors that were used to generate a multiple linear regression model using forward stepwise methodology which explained 28% of variance of summer precipitation.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4514
Dominguez, Diana A.; González, Marcela Hebe; Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina; Universidade Federal de Santa María; Ciencia E Natura; 37; Ed. especial SIC; 1-2015; 75-82
0100-8307
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4514
identifier_str_mv Dominguez, Diana A.; González, Marcela Hebe; Previsão estatística da precipitação de verão no centro-oeste da Argentina; Universidade Federal de Santa María; Ciencia E Natura; 37; Ed. especial SIC; 1-2015; 75-82
0100-8307
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://cascavel.ufsm.br/revistas/ojs-2.2.2/index.php/cienciaenatura/article/view/16219
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5902/2179460X16219
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/0100-8307
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Santa María
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Santa María
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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