Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)

Autores
González, Marcela Hebe
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
A detailed statistical analysis was performed at the Neuquén river basin using precipitation data for 1980-2007. The hydrological year begins in March with a maximum in June, associated with rainfall and another relative maximum in October derived from snow-break. General features of rainy season and the excess or deficits thereof are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for a six-month period in the basin. SPI has a significant cycle of 14.3 years; the most severe excess (SPI greater than 2) has a return period of 25 years while the most severe droughts (SPI less than -2) has return a period of 10 years. The SPI corresponding to the rainy season (April-September) (SPI9) has no significant trend and it is used to classify wet/dry years. In order to establish the previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI9 variability, there are compared the composite fields of wet and dry years. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place during El Niño (La Niña) years, and/or when there are positive anomalies of precipitable water over the basin and/or when the zonal flow over the Pacific Ocean is weakened (intensified) and/or when there are negative pressure anomalies in the southern part of the country and Antarctic sea. Some prediction schemes, using multiple linear regressions were performed. One of the models derived using forward stepwise method explained the 42% of the SPI9 variance and retained two predictors related to circulation over the Pacific Ocean: one of them shows the relevance of the intensity of zonal flow in mid-latitudes and the other is because of the influence of low pressure near the Neuquén River basin. The cross-validation used to prove model efficiency showed a correlation of 0.41 between observed and estimated SPI9; a probability of detection of wet (dry) years of 80% (65%) and a false alarm relation of 25% in both cases.
Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Materia
PRECIPITACION
CUENCA
PREDICCION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4474

id CONICETDig_4afd2bffeb096f5b10aab143b31ff7a3
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4474
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)González, Marcela HebePRECIPITACIONCUENCAPREDICCIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1A detailed statistical analysis was performed at the Neuquén river basin using precipitation data for 1980-2007. The hydrological year begins in March with a maximum in June, associated with rainfall and another relative maximum in October derived from snow-break. General features of rainy season and the excess or deficits thereof are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for a six-month period in the basin. SPI has a significant cycle of 14.3 years; the most severe excess (SPI greater than 2) has a return period of 25 years while the most severe droughts (SPI less than -2) has return a period of 10 years. The SPI corresponding to the rainy season (April-September) (SPI9) has no significant trend and it is used to classify wet/dry years. In order to establish the previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI9 variability, there are compared the composite fields of wet and dry years. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place during El Niño (La Niña) years, and/or when there are positive anomalies of precipitable water over the basin and/or when the zonal flow over the Pacific Ocean is weakened (intensified) and/or when there are negative pressure anomalies in the southern part of the country and Antarctic sea. Some prediction schemes, using multiple linear regressions were performed. One of the models derived using forward stepwise method explained the 42% of the SPI9 variance and retained two predictors related to circulation over the Pacific Ocean: one of them shows the relevance of the intensity of zonal flow in mid-latitudes and the other is because of the influence of low pressure near the Neuquén River basin. The cross-validation used to prove model efficiency showed a correlation of 0.41 between observed and estimated SPI9; a probability of detection of wet (dry) years of 80% (65%) and a false alarm relation of 25% in both cases.Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaMDPI2015-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4474González, Marcela Hebe; Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina); MDPI; Climate; 3; 2; 5-2015; 349-3642225-1154enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/3/2/349/htminfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/cli3020349info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2225-1154info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:43:07Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4474instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:43:07.836CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
title Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
spellingShingle Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
González, Marcela Hebe
PRECIPITACION
CUENCA
PREDICCION
title_short Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
title_full Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
title_fullStr Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
title_full_unstemmed Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
title_sort Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv González, Marcela Hebe
author González, Marcela Hebe
author_facet González, Marcela Hebe
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PRECIPITACION
CUENCA
PREDICCION
topic PRECIPITACION
CUENCA
PREDICCION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv A detailed statistical analysis was performed at the Neuquén river basin using precipitation data for 1980-2007. The hydrological year begins in March with a maximum in June, associated with rainfall and another relative maximum in October derived from snow-break. General features of rainy season and the excess or deficits thereof are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for a six-month period in the basin. SPI has a significant cycle of 14.3 years; the most severe excess (SPI greater than 2) has a return period of 25 years while the most severe droughts (SPI less than -2) has return a period of 10 years. The SPI corresponding to the rainy season (April-September) (SPI9) has no significant trend and it is used to classify wet/dry years. In order to establish the previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI9 variability, there are compared the composite fields of wet and dry years. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place during El Niño (La Niña) years, and/or when there are positive anomalies of precipitable water over the basin and/or when the zonal flow over the Pacific Ocean is weakened (intensified) and/or when there are negative pressure anomalies in the southern part of the country and Antarctic sea. Some prediction schemes, using multiple linear regressions were performed. One of the models derived using forward stepwise method explained the 42% of the SPI9 variance and retained two predictors related to circulation over the Pacific Ocean: one of them shows the relevance of the intensity of zonal flow in mid-latitudes and the other is because of the influence of low pressure near the Neuquén River basin. The cross-validation used to prove model efficiency showed a correlation of 0.41 between observed and estimated SPI9; a probability of detection of wet (dry) years of 80% (65%) and a false alarm relation of 25% in both cases.
Fil: González, Marcela Hebe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
description A detailed statistical analysis was performed at the Neuquén river basin using precipitation data for 1980-2007. The hydrological year begins in March with a maximum in June, associated with rainfall and another relative maximum in October derived from snow-break. General features of rainy season and the excess or deficits thereof are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) for a six-month period in the basin. SPI has a significant cycle of 14.3 years; the most severe excess (SPI greater than 2) has a return period of 25 years while the most severe droughts (SPI less than -2) has return a period of 10 years. The SPI corresponding to the rainy season (April-September) (SPI9) has no significant trend and it is used to classify wet/dry years. In order to establish the previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI9 variability, there are compared the composite fields of wet and dry years. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place during El Niño (La Niña) years, and/or when there are positive anomalies of precipitable water over the basin and/or when the zonal flow over the Pacific Ocean is weakened (intensified) and/or when there are negative pressure anomalies in the southern part of the country and Antarctic sea. Some prediction schemes, using multiple linear regressions were performed. One of the models derived using forward stepwise method explained the 42% of the SPI9 variance and retained two predictors related to circulation over the Pacific Ocean: one of them shows the relevance of the intensity of zonal flow in mid-latitudes and the other is because of the influence of low pressure near the Neuquén River basin. The cross-validation used to prove model efficiency showed a correlation of 0.41 between observed and estimated SPI9; a probability of detection of wet (dry) years of 80% (65%) and a false alarm relation of 25% in both cases.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4474
González, Marcela Hebe; Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina); MDPI; Climate; 3; 2; 5-2015; 349-364
2225-1154
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4474
identifier_str_mv González, Marcela Hebe; Statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in Neuquen river basin (Comahue Region, Argentina); MDPI; Climate; 3; 2; 5-2015; 349-364
2225-1154
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/3/2/349/htm
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3390/cli3020349
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2225-1154
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1844614465601929216
score 13.070432