Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America

Autores
Müller, Omar Vicente; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Berbery, Ernesto H.
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF Model simulations at 15-km grid spacing over the La Plata basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2-m temperature in situ observations for the 2-yr period from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2014. Results show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Also, the probability of detection of rain days is above 80% in humid regions. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r > 0.80) while mean absolute errors, even at the maximum lead time, remain below 2.7°C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.7°C for maximum temperatures. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness for forecasting weather up to 1 week in advance and for monitoring climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead time can be extended into a second week, while bias correction methods can reduce some of the systematic errors.
Fil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. University of Maryland. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Estados Unidos
Materia
APPLICATIONS
COMMUNICATIONS/DECISION MAKING
FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL
FORECASTING
GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION/ENTITY
MODELS AND MODELING
REGIONAL MODELS
SOUTH AMERICA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/69063
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/69063
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South AmericaMüller, Omar VicenteLovino, Miguel AngelBerbery, Ernesto H.APPLICATIONSCOMMUNICATIONS/DECISION MAKINGFORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILLFORECASTINGGEOGRAPHIC LOCATION/ENTITYMODELS AND MODELINGREGIONAL MODELSSOUTH AMERICAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF Model simulations at 15-km grid spacing over the La Plata basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2-m temperature in situ observations for the 2-yr period from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2014. Results show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Also, the probability of detection of rain days is above 80% in humid regions. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r > 0.80) while mean absolute errors, even at the maximum lead time, remain below 2.7°C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.7°C for maximum temperatures. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness for forecasting weather up to 1 week in advance and for monitoring climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead time can be extended into a second week, while bias correction methods can reduce some of the systematic errors.Fil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; ArgentinaFil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. University of Maryland. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Estados UnidosAmerican Meteorological Society2016-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/69063Müller, Omar Vicente; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Berbery, Ernesto H.; Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America; American Meteorological Society; Weather and Forecasting; 31; 3; 6-2016; 1001-10170882-8156CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0130.1info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0130.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T12:04:42Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/69063instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 12:04:43.267CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
title Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
spellingShingle Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
Müller, Omar Vicente
APPLICATIONS
COMMUNICATIONS/DECISION MAKING
FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL
FORECASTING
GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION/ENTITY
MODELS AND MODELING
REGIONAL MODELS
SOUTH AMERICA
title_short Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
title_full Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
title_fullStr Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
title_sort Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Müller, Omar Vicente
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Berbery, Ernesto H.
author Müller, Omar Vicente
author_facet Müller, Omar Vicente
Lovino, Miguel Angel
Berbery, Ernesto H.
author_role author
author2 Lovino, Miguel Angel
Berbery, Ernesto H.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv APPLICATIONS
COMMUNICATIONS/DECISION MAKING
FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL
FORECASTING
GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION/ENTITY
MODELS AND MODELING
REGIONAL MODELS
SOUTH AMERICA
topic APPLICATIONS
COMMUNICATIONS/DECISION MAKING
FORECAST VERIFICATION/SKILL
FORECASTING
GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION/ENTITY
MODELS AND MODELING
REGIONAL MODELS
SOUTH AMERICA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF Model simulations at 15-km grid spacing over the La Plata basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2-m temperature in situ observations for the 2-yr period from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2014. Results show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Also, the probability of detection of rain days is above 80% in humid regions. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r > 0.80) while mean absolute errors, even at the maximum lead time, remain below 2.7°C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.7°C for maximum temperatures. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness for forecasting weather up to 1 week in advance and for monitoring climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead time can be extended into a second week, while bias correction methods can reduce some of the systematic errors.
Fil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Lovino, Miguel Angel. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina
Fil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. University of Maryland. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science; Estados Unidos
description Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF Model simulations at 15-km grid spacing over the La Plata basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2-m temperature in situ observations for the 2-yr period from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2014. Results show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Also, the probability of detection of rain days is above 80% in humid regions. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r > 0.80) while mean absolute errors, even at the maximum lead time, remain below 2.7°C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.7°C for maximum temperatures. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness for forecasting weather up to 1 week in advance and for monitoring climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead time can be extended into a second week, while bias correction methods can reduce some of the systematic errors.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/69063
Müller, Omar Vicente; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Berbery, Ernesto H.; Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America; American Meteorological Society; Weather and Forecasting; 31; 3; 6-2016; 1001-1017
0882-8156
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/69063
identifier_str_mv Müller, Omar Vicente; Lovino, Miguel Angel; Berbery, Ernesto H.; Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over Southern South America; American Meteorological Society; Weather and Forecasting; 31; 3; 6-2016; 1001-1017
0882-8156
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0130.1
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0130.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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