Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica

Autores
Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Garcia Skabar, Yanina; Ruiz, Juan Jose; Vidal, Luciano; Salio, Paola Veronica
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
During November-December 2012, high-resolution (4 km-38 vertical levels), convection-12 allowing 48 hours WRF-ARW forecasts were produced at the National Weather Service of 13 Argentina. The aim of this paper is to evaluate hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts to 14 assess the model performance on representing its location, intensity, spatial variability and 15 diurnal cycle. The focus is on the central-east region of Argentina and south of Brazil. The study 16 is based on a combination of visual comparison of forecasted and estimates accumulated 17 precipitation fields and objective scores calculated employing 8-km resolution CMORPH (CPC 18 MORPHing technique) satellite rainfall estimations. Additional insight is gained by examining 19 an organized convective event occurred during 6th and 7th December 2012. As a complement, 20 radar data is considered to evaluate convective features using simulated model reflectivity. 21 Results show that WRF model forecast captures quite well the position and timing of the major 22 convective events, even though the magnitude of events was underestimated. Total amounts 23 averaged over the verification domain are underestimate as well as the areal coverage for 24 small thresholds. In general, results suggest that convection-allowing WRF-ARW model has the 25 potential to improve short range forecasts over the region although it should be evaluated 26 over a longer period of time.
Fil: Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Garcia Skabar, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Vidal, Luciano. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Materia
Verification
Performance
High Resolution
Rainfall
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4509
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmericaMatsudo, Cynthia MarianaGarcia Skabar, YaninaRuiz, Juan JoseVidal, LucianoSalio, Paola VeronicaVerificationPerformanceHigh ResolutionRainfallhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1During November-December 2012, high-resolution (4 km-38 vertical levels), convection-12 allowing 48 hours WRF-ARW forecasts were produced at the National Weather Service of 13 Argentina. The aim of this paper is to evaluate hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts to 14 assess the model performance on representing its location, intensity, spatial variability and 15 diurnal cycle. The focus is on the central-east region of Argentina and south of Brazil. The study 16 is based on a combination of visual comparison of forecasted and estimates accumulated 17 precipitation fields and objective scores calculated employing 8-km resolution CMORPH (CPC 18 MORPHing technique) satellite rainfall estimations. Additional insight is gained by examining 19 an organized convective event occurred during 6th and 7th December 2012. As a complement, 20 radar data is considered to evaluate convective features using simulated model reflectivity. 21 Results show that WRF model forecast captures quite well the position and timing of the major 22 convective events, even though the magnitude of events was underestimated. Total amounts 23 averaged over the verification domain are underestimate as well as the areal coverage for 24 small thresholds. In general, results suggest that convection-allowing WRF-ARW model has the 25 potential to improve short range forecasts over the region although it should be evaluated 26 over a longer period of time.Fil: Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Garcia Skabar, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Vidal, Luciano. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaIndia Meteorological Department2015-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4509Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Garcia Skabar, Yanina; Ruiz, Juan Jose; Vidal, Luciano; Salio, Paola Veronica; Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica; India Meteorological Department; Mausam; 66; 3; 1-2015; 445-4560252-9416enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://mausamjournal.imd.gov.in/index.php/MAUSAM/article/view/554info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:54:50Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4509instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:54:50.641CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
title Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
spellingShingle Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana
Verification
Performance
High Resolution
Rainfall
title_short Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
title_full Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
title_fullStr Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
title_full_unstemmed Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
title_sort Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana
Garcia Skabar, Yanina
Ruiz, Juan Jose
Vidal, Luciano
Salio, Paola Veronica
author Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana
author_facet Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana
Garcia Skabar, Yanina
Ruiz, Juan Jose
Vidal, Luciano
Salio, Paola Veronica
author_role author
author2 Garcia Skabar, Yanina
Ruiz, Juan Jose
Vidal, Luciano
Salio, Paola Veronica
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Verification
Performance
High Resolution
Rainfall
topic Verification
Performance
High Resolution
Rainfall
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv During November-December 2012, high-resolution (4 km-38 vertical levels), convection-12 allowing 48 hours WRF-ARW forecasts were produced at the National Weather Service of 13 Argentina. The aim of this paper is to evaluate hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts to 14 assess the model performance on representing its location, intensity, spatial variability and 15 diurnal cycle. The focus is on the central-east region of Argentina and south of Brazil. The study 16 is based on a combination of visual comparison of forecasted and estimates accumulated 17 precipitation fields and objective scores calculated employing 8-km resolution CMORPH (CPC 18 MORPHing technique) satellite rainfall estimations. Additional insight is gained by examining 19 an organized convective event occurred during 6th and 7th December 2012. As a complement, 20 radar data is considered to evaluate convective features using simulated model reflectivity. 21 Results show that WRF model forecast captures quite well the position and timing of the major 22 convective events, even though the magnitude of events was underestimated. Total amounts 23 averaged over the verification domain are underestimate as well as the areal coverage for 24 small thresholds. In general, results suggest that convection-allowing WRF-ARW model has the 25 potential to improve short range forecasts over the region although it should be evaluated 26 over a longer period of time.
Fil: Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Garcia Skabar, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
Fil: Vidal, Luciano. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
description During November-December 2012, high-resolution (4 km-38 vertical levels), convection-12 allowing 48 hours WRF-ARW forecasts were produced at the National Weather Service of 13 Argentina. The aim of this paper is to evaluate hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts to 14 assess the model performance on representing its location, intensity, spatial variability and 15 diurnal cycle. The focus is on the central-east region of Argentina and south of Brazil. The study 16 is based on a combination of visual comparison of forecasted and estimates accumulated 17 precipitation fields and objective scores calculated employing 8-km resolution CMORPH (CPC 18 MORPHing technique) satellite rainfall estimations. Additional insight is gained by examining 19 an organized convective event occurred during 6th and 7th December 2012. As a complement, 20 radar data is considered to evaluate convective features using simulated model reflectivity. 21 Results show that WRF model forecast captures quite well the position and timing of the major 22 convective events, even though the magnitude of events was underestimated. Total amounts 23 averaged over the verification domain are underestimate as well as the areal coverage for 24 small thresholds. In general, results suggest that convection-allowing WRF-ARW model has the 25 potential to improve short range forecasts over the region although it should be evaluated 26 over a longer period of time.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4509
Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Garcia Skabar, Yanina; Ruiz, Juan Jose; Vidal, Luciano; Salio, Paola Veronica; Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica; India Meteorological Department; Mausam; 66; 3; 1-2015; 445-456
0252-9416
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4509
identifier_str_mv Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana; Garcia Skabar, Yanina; Ruiz, Juan Jose; Vidal, Luciano; Salio, Paola Veronica; Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern SouthAmerica; India Meteorological Department; Mausam; 66; 3; 1-2015; 445-456
0252-9416
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://mausamjournal.imd.gov.in/index.php/MAUSAM/article/view/554
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv India Meteorological Department
publisher.none.fl_str_mv India Meteorological Department
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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