Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017

Autores
Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Coelho, C.A.S.; Osman, Marisol; Firpo, M.Â.F.; Vera, Carolina Susana
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The demand of subseasonal predictions (from one to about four weeks in advance) has been consid-erably increasing as these predictions can potentially help prepare for the occurrence of high-impact events such as heat or cold waves that affect both social and economic activities. This study aims to assess the subseasonal temperature prediction quality of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against the Japan Meteorological Agency reanalyses. Two consecutive weeks of July 2017 were analyzed, which presented anomalously cold and warm conditions over central South America. The quality of 20 years of hindcasts for the two investigated weeks was compared to that for similar weeks during the JJA season and of 3 years of real-time forecasts for the same season. Anomalously cold temperatures observed during the week of 17–23 July 2017 were well predicted one week in advance. Moreover, the warm anomalies observed during the following week of 24–30 July 2017 were well predicted two weeks in advance. Higher linear association and discrimination (ability to distinguish events from nonevents), but reduced reliability, was found for the 20 years of hindcasts for the target week than for the hindcasts produced for all of the JJA season. In addition, the real-time forecasts showed generally better performance over some regions of South America than the hindcasts. The assessment provides robust evidence about temperature prediction quality to build confidence in regional subseasonal forecasts as well as to identify regions in which the predictions have better performance.
Fil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Coelho, C.A.S.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Firpo, M.Â.F.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Materia
forecast verification
skill
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144403
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144403
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017Alvarez, Mariano SebastiánCoelho, C.A.S.Osman, MarisolFirpo, M.Â.F.Vera, Carolina Susanaforecast verificationskillhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The demand of subseasonal predictions (from one to about four weeks in advance) has been consid-erably increasing as these predictions can potentially help prepare for the occurrence of high-impact events such as heat or cold waves that affect both social and economic activities. This study aims to assess the subseasonal temperature prediction quality of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against the Japan Meteorological Agency reanalyses. Two consecutive weeks of July 2017 were analyzed, which presented anomalously cold and warm conditions over central South America. The quality of 20 years of hindcasts for the two investigated weeks was compared to that for similar weeks during the JJA season and of 3 years of real-time forecasts for the same season. Anomalously cold temperatures observed during the week of 17–23 July 2017 were well predicted one week in advance. Moreover, the warm anomalies observed during the following week of 24–30 July 2017 were well predicted two weeks in advance. Higher linear association and discrimination (ability to distinguish events from nonevents), but reduced reliability, was found for the 20 years of hindcasts for the target week than for the hindcasts produced for all of the JJA season. In addition, the real-time forecasts showed generally better performance over some regions of South America than the hindcasts. The assessment provides robust evidence about temperature prediction quality to build confidence in regional subseasonal forecasts as well as to identify regions in which the predictions have better performance.Fil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Coelho, C.A.S.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Firpo, M.Â.F.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaAmer Meteorological Soc2020-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/144403Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Coelho, C.A.S.; Osman, Marisol; Firpo, M.Â.F.; Vera, Carolina Susana; Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017; Amer Meteorological Soc; Weather and Forecasting; 35; 5; 10-2020; 1871-18890882-8156CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/35/5/1871/353354/Assessment-of-ECMWF-Subseasonal-Temperatureinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0200.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:53:49Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144403instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:53:49.921CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
title Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
spellingShingle Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
forecast verification
skill
title_short Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
title_full Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
title_fullStr Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
title_full_unstemmed Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
title_sort Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
Coelho, C.A.S.
Osman, Marisol
Firpo, M.Â.F.
Vera, Carolina Susana
author Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
author_facet Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián
Coelho, C.A.S.
Osman, Marisol
Firpo, M.Â.F.
Vera, Carolina Susana
author_role author
author2 Coelho, C.A.S.
Osman, Marisol
Firpo, M.Â.F.
Vera, Carolina Susana
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv forecast verification
skill
topic forecast verification
skill
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The demand of subseasonal predictions (from one to about four weeks in advance) has been consid-erably increasing as these predictions can potentially help prepare for the occurrence of high-impact events such as heat or cold waves that affect both social and economic activities. This study aims to assess the subseasonal temperature prediction quality of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against the Japan Meteorological Agency reanalyses. Two consecutive weeks of July 2017 were analyzed, which presented anomalously cold and warm conditions over central South America. The quality of 20 years of hindcasts for the two investigated weeks was compared to that for similar weeks during the JJA season and of 3 years of real-time forecasts for the same season. Anomalously cold temperatures observed during the week of 17–23 July 2017 were well predicted one week in advance. Moreover, the warm anomalies observed during the following week of 24–30 July 2017 were well predicted two weeks in advance. Higher linear association and discrimination (ability to distinguish events from nonevents), but reduced reliability, was found for the 20 years of hindcasts for the target week than for the hindcasts produced for all of the JJA season. In addition, the real-time forecasts showed generally better performance over some regions of South America than the hindcasts. The assessment provides robust evidence about temperature prediction quality to build confidence in regional subseasonal forecasts as well as to identify regions in which the predictions have better performance.
Fil: Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Coelho, C.A.S.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Firpo, M.Â.F.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Brasil
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
description The demand of subseasonal predictions (from one to about four weeks in advance) has been consid-erably increasing as these predictions can potentially help prepare for the occurrence of high-impact events such as heat or cold waves that affect both social and economic activities. This study aims to assess the subseasonal temperature prediction quality of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against the Japan Meteorological Agency reanalyses. Two consecutive weeks of July 2017 were analyzed, which presented anomalously cold and warm conditions over central South America. The quality of 20 years of hindcasts for the two investigated weeks was compared to that for similar weeks during the JJA season and of 3 years of real-time forecasts for the same season. Anomalously cold temperatures observed during the week of 17–23 July 2017 were well predicted one week in advance. Moreover, the warm anomalies observed during the following week of 24–30 July 2017 were well predicted two weeks in advance. Higher linear association and discrimination (ability to distinguish events from nonevents), but reduced reliability, was found for the 20 years of hindcasts for the target week than for the hindcasts produced for all of the JJA season. In addition, the real-time forecasts showed generally better performance over some regions of South America than the hindcasts. The assessment provides robust evidence about temperature prediction quality to build confidence in regional subseasonal forecasts as well as to identify regions in which the predictions have better performance.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144403
Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Coelho, C.A.S.; Osman, Marisol; Firpo, M.Â.F.; Vera, Carolina Susana; Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017; Amer Meteorological Soc; Weather and Forecasting; 35; 5; 10-2020; 1871-1889
0882-8156
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144403
identifier_str_mv Alvarez, Mariano Sebastián; Coelho, C.A.S.; Osman, Marisol; Firpo, M.Â.F.; Vera, Carolina Susana; Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in central and Southeastern South America during July 2017; Amer Meteorological Soc; Weather and Forecasting; 35; 5; 10-2020; 1871-1889
0882-8156
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/35/5/1871/353354/Assessment-of-ECMWF-Subseasonal-Temperature
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0200.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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