Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections

Autores
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes.
Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina
Fil: Andrade, Kelen M.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina
Materia
Atmospheric Features
Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0
Cold Air Intrusion
Future Projections
Temperature Changes in South America
Temperature Extremes
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/80124
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projectionsFonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, IracemaMuller, Gabriela VivianaAndrade, Kelen M.Fernández Long, María ElenaAtmospheric FeaturesCmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0Cold Air IntrusionFuture ProjectionsTemperature Changes in South AmericaTemperature Extremeshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes.Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; BrasilFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; ArgentinaFil: Andrade, Kelen M.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; BrasilFil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaElsevier Science2013-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/80124Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena; Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 111; 12-2013; 31-420921-8181CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811300177Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.006info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:55:18Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/80124instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:55:18.922CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
title Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
spellingShingle Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema
Atmospheric Features
Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0
Cold Air Intrusion
Future Projections
Temperature Changes in South America
Temperature Extremes
title_short Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
title_full Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
title_fullStr Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
title_full_unstemmed Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
title_sort Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Andrade, Kelen M.
Fernández Long, María Elena
author Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema
author_facet Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema
Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Andrade, Kelen M.
Fernández Long, María Elena
author_role author
author2 Muller, Gabriela Viviana
Andrade, Kelen M.
Fernández Long, María Elena
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Atmospheric Features
Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0
Cold Air Intrusion
Future Projections
Temperature Changes in South America
Temperature Extremes
topic Atmospheric Features
Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0
Cold Air Intrusion
Future Projections
Temperature Changes in South America
Temperature Extremes
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes.
Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina
Fil: Andrade, Kelen M.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina
description Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/80124
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena; Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 111; 12-2013; 31-42
0921-8181
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/80124
identifier_str_mv Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena; Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 111; 12-2013; 31-42
0921-8181
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811300177X
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.006
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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