Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections
- Autores
- Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena
- Año de publicación
- 2013
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes.
Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina
Fil: Andrade, Kelen M.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil
Fil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina - Materia
-
Atmospheric Features
Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0
Cold Air Intrusion
Future Projections
Temperature Changes in South America
Temperature Extremes - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/80124
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Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projectionsFonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, IracemaMuller, Gabriela VivianaAndrade, Kelen M.Fernández Long, María ElenaAtmospheric FeaturesCmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0Cold Air IntrusionFuture ProjectionsTemperature Changes in South AmericaTemperature Extremeshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes.Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; BrasilFil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; ArgentinaFil: Andrade, Kelen M.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; BrasilFil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaElsevier Science2013-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/80124Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena; Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 111; 12-2013; 31-420921-8181CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811300177Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.006info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:59:37Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/80124instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:59:37.967CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
title |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
spellingShingle |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Atmospheric Features Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0 Cold Air Intrusion Future Projections Temperature Changes in South America Temperature Extremes |
title_short |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
title_full |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
title_fullStr |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
title_sort |
Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Muller, Gabriela Viviana Andrade, Kelen M. Fernández Long, María Elena |
author |
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema |
author_facet |
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Muller, Gabriela Viviana Andrade, Kelen M. Fernández Long, María Elena |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Muller, Gabriela Viviana Andrade, Kelen M. Fernández Long, María Elena |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Atmospheric Features Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0 Cold Air Intrusion Future Projections Temperature Changes in South America Temperature Extremes |
topic |
Atmospheric Features Cmip3-Gfdl-Cm2.0 Cold Air Intrusion Future Projections Temperature Changes in South America Temperature Extremes |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes. Fil: Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil Fil: Muller, Gabriela Viviana. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina Fil: Andrade, Kelen M.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; Brasil Fil: Fernández Long, María Elena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina |
description |
Cold air intrusions in three areas frequently affected by frosts of southeastern South America are analyzed based on GFDL-CM2.0 Coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic Global Circulation Model. The general objective is to investigate the model ability to simulate the frequency of intrusions in the present climate as well as the changes in the frequency of occurrence and atmospheric characteristics in a future climate scenario. The cold period (May to September) is analyzed for the control period 1961 to 1990 and for the period 2081 to 2100 from the CMIP3 A2 scenario, which reflects the extreme global warming. The coupled GFDL-CM2.0 overestimated the number of cold air intrusions for the present climate (control). This systematic error should be considered in the analyses of future climate results. Future projections indicated a reduction of these cases in GFDL results. As this model overestimated the number of cases, the reduction could be even greater. Composites of extreme cases for the present and future climate in the three areas indicated intensification of the temperature gradient which suggests more vigorous frontal systems, intensification of post-frontal highs and cold air extending to lower latitudes as compared to the present climate. Anomaly intensification was related to the climatological mean temperature, which is higher in the future than in the present. Therefore, even with less cold air intrusion over southeastern South America and a lower number of frost cases in the three areas, the occurrence of more intense systems would have an impact on the agriculture of these areas and such impact would extend to lower latitudes. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-12 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/80124 Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena; Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 111; 12-2013; 31-42 0921-8181 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/80124 |
identifier_str_mv |
Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema; Muller, Gabriela Viviana; Andrade, Kelen M.; Fernández Long, María Elena; Cold air intrusions over southeastern South America - GFDL model behavior regarding climate simulations in the 20th century and future projections; Elsevier Science; Global and Planetary Change; 111; 12-2013; 31-42 0921-8181 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811300177X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.08.006 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613767517700096 |
score |
13.070432 |