Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds

Autores
Perez, Andres M; Ward, Michael P; Charmandarián, Armando; Ritacco, Viviana
Año de publicación
2002
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Fil: Perez, Andres M. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
Fil: Ward, Michael P. Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, 1243 Veterinary Pathobiology Building, Purdue University; Estados Unidos.
Fil: Charmandarián, Armando. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
Fil: Ritacco, Viviana. ANLIS Dr.C.G.Malbrán. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas; Argentina.
Transmission of bovine tuberculosis was quantified in three dairy herds located in south Santa Fe Province, Argentina. Using estimates of Mycobacterium bovis transmission (beta) and a Reed-Frost simulation model, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the study herds over time was investigated. The Reed-Frost model was modified by incorporating randomness in both beta and the incubation period (alpha) of M. bovis. The mean estimated herd beta was 2.2 infective contacts per year and did not differ significantly between the study herds. Modeling alpha as Poisson distributed (mean 24 months) best fit the observed prevalences. Infection was predicted by the model either to spread quickly (<10 years) within a herd and reach a high prevalence (>50%), or to persist at a low prevalence (<5-10%). The model was robust, predictions were realistic and the mean beta estimated was consistent with previous studies of bovine tuberculosis.
Fuente
Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2002; 54(4):361-72.
Materia
Tuberculosis
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Santa Fe
Argentina
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
none
Repositorio
Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN
Institución
Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"
OAI Identificador
oai:sgc.anlis.gob.ar:Publications/123456789/1907

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network_name_str Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN
spelling Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herdsPerez, Andres MWard, Michael PCharmandarián, ArmandoRitacco, VivianaTuberculosisMycobacterium tuberculosisSanta FeArgentinaFil: Perez, Andres M. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.Fil: Ward, Michael P. Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, 1243 Veterinary Pathobiology Building, Purdue University; Estados Unidos.Fil: Charmandarián, Armando. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.Fil: Ritacco, Viviana. ANLIS Dr.C.G.Malbrán. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas; Argentina.Transmission of bovine tuberculosis was quantified in three dairy herds located in south Santa Fe Province, Argentina. Using estimates of Mycobacterium bovis transmission (beta) and a Reed-Frost simulation model, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the study herds over time was investigated. The Reed-Frost model was modified by incorporating randomness in both beta and the incubation period (alpha) of M. bovis. The mean estimated herd beta was 2.2 infective contacts per year and did not differ significantly between the study herds. Modeling alpha as Poisson distributed (mean 24 months) best fit the observed prevalences. Infection was predicted by the model either to spread quickly (<10 years) within a herd and reach a high prevalence (>50%), or to persist at a low prevalence (<5-10%). The model was robust, predictions were realistic and the mean beta estimated was consistent with previous studies of bovine tuberculosis.Elsevier2002-08-30info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdf0167-5877http://sgc.anlis.gob.ar/handle/123456789/190710.1016/s0167-5877(02)00043-0Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2002; 54(4):361-72.reponame:Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁNinstname:Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"instacron:ANLISPreventive veterinary medicinenoneinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesseng2025-09-29T14:30:30Zoai:sgc.anlis.gob.ar:Publications/123456789/1907Institucionalhttp://sgc.anlis.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://sgc.anlis.gob.ar/oai/biblioteca@anlis.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:a2025-09-29 14:30:31.094Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN - Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
title Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
spellingShingle Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
Perez, Andres M
Tuberculosis
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Santa Fe
Argentina
title_short Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
title_full Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
title_fullStr Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
title_full_unstemmed Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
title_sort Simulation model of within-herd transmission of bovine tuberculosis in Argentine dairy herds
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Perez, Andres M
Ward, Michael P
Charmandarián, Armando
Ritacco, Viviana
author Perez, Andres M
author_facet Perez, Andres M
Ward, Michael P
Charmandarián, Armando
Ritacco, Viviana
author_role author
author2 Ward, Michael P
Charmandarián, Armando
Ritacco, Viviana
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Tuberculosis
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Santa Fe
Argentina
topic Tuberculosis
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Santa Fe
Argentina
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Fil: Perez, Andres M. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
Fil: Ward, Michael P. Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, 1243 Veterinary Pathobiology Building, Purdue University; Estados Unidos.
Fil: Charmandarián, Armando. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
Fil: Ritacco, Viviana. ANLIS Dr.C.G.Malbrán. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas; Argentina.
Transmission of bovine tuberculosis was quantified in three dairy herds located in south Santa Fe Province, Argentina. Using estimates of Mycobacterium bovis transmission (beta) and a Reed-Frost simulation model, the prevalence of tuberculosis infection in the study herds over time was investigated. The Reed-Frost model was modified by incorporating randomness in both beta and the incubation period (alpha) of M. bovis. The mean estimated herd beta was 2.2 infective contacts per year and did not differ significantly between the study herds. Modeling alpha as Poisson distributed (mean 24 months) best fit the observed prevalences. Infection was predicted by the model either to spread quickly (<10 years) within a herd and reach a high prevalence (>50%), or to persist at a low prevalence (<5-10%). The model was robust, predictions were realistic and the mean beta estimated was consistent with previous studies of bovine tuberculosis.
description Fil: Perez, Andres M. School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of Rosario (UNR); Argentina.
publishDate 2002
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2002-08-30
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv 0167-5877
http://sgc.anlis.gob.ar/handle/123456789/1907
10.1016/s0167-5877(02)00043-0
identifier_str_mv 0167-5877
10.1016/s0167-5877(02)00043-0
url http://sgc.anlis.gob.ar/handle/123456789/1907
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Preventive veterinary medicine
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv none
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv none
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Preventive Veterinary Medicine 2002; 54(4):361-72.
reponame:Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN
instname:Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"
instacron:ANLIS
reponame_str Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN
collection Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN
instname_str Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"
instacron_str ANLIS
institution ANLIS
repository.name.fl_str_mv Sistema de Gestión del Conocimiento ANLIS MALBRÁN - Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán"
repository.mail.fl_str_mv biblioteca@anlis.gov.ar
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