Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial

Autores
Haimovich, Francisco; Vazquez, Emmanuel José; Adelman, Melissa
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de trabajo
Estado
versión enviada
Descripción
Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
Dropout prevention
Early warning
Impact evaluation
School management
Guatemala
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/121906

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spelling Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trialHaimovich, FranciscoVazquez, Emmanuel JoséAdelman, MelissaCiencias EconómicasDropout preventionEarly warningImpact evaluationSchool managementGuatemalaAcross many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales2021-08info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionDocumento de trabajohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajoapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/121906enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/no-285/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:28:59Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/121906Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:29:00.142SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
title Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
spellingShingle Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
Haimovich, Francisco
Ciencias Económicas
Dropout prevention
Early warning
Impact evaluation
School management
Guatemala
title_short Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
title_full Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
title_fullStr Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
title_full_unstemmed Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
title_sort Scalable early warning systems for school dropout prevention: evidence from a 4.000-school randomized controlled trial
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Haimovich, Francisco
Vazquez, Emmanuel José
Adelman, Melissa
author Haimovich, Francisco
author_facet Haimovich, Francisco
Vazquez, Emmanuel José
Adelman, Melissa
author_role author
author2 Vazquez, Emmanuel José
Adelman, Melissa
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
Dropout prevention
Early warning
Impact evaluation
School management
Guatemala
topic Ciencias Económicas
Dropout prevention
Early warning
Impact evaluation
School management
Guatemala
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
description Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-08
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dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
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