Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
- Autores
- Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela
- Año de publicación
- 2013
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina - Materia
-
La Plata Basin
Regional Climate Models
Future Hydrology Scenarios
Impact Studies - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4464
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Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata BasinSaurral, Ramiro IgnacioMontroull, Natalia BlancaCamilloni, Ines AngelaLa Plata BasinRegional Climate ModelsFuture Hydrology ScenariosImpact Studieshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaTaylor & Francis2013-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4464Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 12-2013; 329-3431571-5124enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1571-5124info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:42:51Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4464instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:42:51.815CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
title |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
spellingShingle |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio La Plata Basin Regional Climate Models Future Hydrology Scenarios Impact Studies |
title_short |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
title_full |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
title_fullStr |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
title_sort |
Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela |
author |
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio |
author_facet |
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Montroull, Natalia Blanca Camilloni, Ines Angela |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
La Plata Basin Regional Climate Models Future Hydrology Scenarios Impact Studies |
topic |
La Plata Basin Regional Climate Models Future Hydrology Scenarios Impact Studies |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina |
description |
There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-12 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4464 Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 12-2013; 329-343 1571-5124 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4464 |
identifier_str_mv |
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 12-2013; 329-343 1571-5124 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1571-5124 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Taylor & Francis |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Taylor & Francis |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613349355028480 |
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13.070432 |