Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin

Autores
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Materia
La Plata Basin
Regional Climate Models
Future Hydrology Scenarios
Impact Studies
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4464
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata BasinSaurral, Ramiro IgnacioMontroull, Natalia BlancaCamilloni, Ines AngelaLa Plata BasinRegional Climate ModelsFuture Hydrology ScenariosImpact Studieshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaTaylor & Francis2013-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/4464Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 12-2013; 329-3431571-5124enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1571-5124info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:11:27Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/4464instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:11:27.775CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
spellingShingle Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
La Plata Basin
Regional Climate Models
Future Hydrology Scenarios
Impact Studies
title_short Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_full Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_fullStr Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_sort Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Montroull, Natalia Blanca
Camilloni, Ines Angela
author Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
author_facet Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
Montroull, Natalia Blanca
Camilloni, Ines Angela
author_role author
author2 Montroull, Natalia Blanca
Camilloni, Ines Angela
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv La Plata Basin
Regional Climate Models
Future Hydrology Scenarios
Impact Studies
topic La Plata Basin
Regional Climate Models
Future Hydrology Scenarios
Impact Studies
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Montroull, Natalia Blanca. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Camilloni, Ines Angela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
description There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin (LPB). As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4464
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 12-2013; 329-343
1571-5124
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/4464
identifier_str_mv Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; Montroull, Natalia Blanca; Camilloni, Ines Angela; Development of statistically unbiased 21st century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin; Taylor & Francis; International Journal of River Basin Management; 11; 4; 12-2013; 329-343
1571-5124
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/15715124.2014.885440
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1571-5124
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Taylor & Francis
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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