Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

Autores
Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Aragão Rêgo, H.H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August - which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.
Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina
Fil: Aragão Rêgo, H.H.. Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Maranhão; Brasil
Fil: Stanley, H. E.. Boston University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Braunstein, Lidia Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina
Materia
Ebola
Epidemic
Metapopulation models
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/62958
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategiesValdez, Lucas DanielAragão Rêgo, H.H.Stanley, H. E.Braunstein, Lidia AdrianaEbolaEpidemicMetapopulation modelshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August - which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: Aragão Rêgo, H.H.. Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Maranhão; BrasilFil: Stanley, H. E.. Boston University; Estados UnidosFil: Braunstein, Lidia Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaNature Publishing Group2015-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/62958Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Aragão Rêgo, H.H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana; Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies; Nature Publishing Group; Scientific Reports; 5; 7-2015; 1-102045-2322CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.nature.com/articles/srep12172info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/srep12172info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:55:55Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/62958instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:55:55.676CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
title Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
spellingShingle Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
Valdez, Lucas Daniel
Ebola
Epidemic
Metapopulation models
title_short Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
title_full Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
title_fullStr Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
title_sort Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Valdez, Lucas Daniel
Aragão Rêgo, H.H.
Stanley, H. E.
Braunstein, Lidia Adriana
author Valdez, Lucas Daniel
author_facet Valdez, Lucas Daniel
Aragão Rêgo, H.H.
Stanley, H. E.
Braunstein, Lidia Adriana
author_role author
author2 Aragão Rêgo, H.H.
Stanley, H. E.
Braunstein, Lidia Adriana
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ebola
Epidemic
Metapopulation models
topic Ebola
Epidemic
Metapopulation models
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August - which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.
Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina
Fil: Aragão Rêgo, H.H.. Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Maranhão; Brasil
Fil: Stanley, H. E.. Boston University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Braunstein, Lidia Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina
description The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August - which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/62958
Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Aragão Rêgo, H.H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana; Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies; Nature Publishing Group; Scientific Reports; 5; 7-2015; 1-10
2045-2322
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/62958
identifier_str_mv Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Aragão Rêgo, H.H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana; Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies; Nature Publishing Group; Scientific Reports; 5; 7-2015; 1-10
2045-2322
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.nature.com/articles/srep12172
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/srep12172
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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