Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics

Autores
Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Picinini Freitas, Laís; Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo; King, Aaron A.; Pascual, Mercedes
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.
Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Picinini Freitas, Laís. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; Brasil
Fil: Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; Brasil
Fil: King, Aaron A.. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Pascual, Mercedes. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos
Materia
POPULATION DENSITY
DENGUE
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL WAVES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/213718
Acceder
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spelling Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemicsRomeo Aznar, Victoria TeresaPicinini Freitas, LaísGonçalves Cruz, OswaldoKing, Aaron A.Pascual, MercedesPOPULATION DENSITYDENGUEEPIDEMIOLOGICAL WAVEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Picinini Freitas, Laís. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; BrasilFil: Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; BrasilFil: King, Aaron A.. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Pascual, Mercedes. University of Chicago; Estados UnidosNature2022-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/213718Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Picinini Freitas, Laís; Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo; King, Aaron A.; Pascual, Mercedes; Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics; Nature; Nature Communications; 13; 1; 12-2022; 1-92041-1723CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-28231-winfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:36:36Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/213718instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:36:36.504CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
title Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
spellingShingle Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
POPULATION DENSITY
DENGUE
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL WAVES
title_short Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
title_full Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
title_fullStr Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
title_sort Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
Picinini Freitas, Laís
Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo
King, Aaron A.
Pascual, Mercedes
author Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
author_facet Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
Picinini Freitas, Laís
Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo
King, Aaron A.
Pascual, Mercedes
author_role author
author2 Picinini Freitas, Laís
Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo
King, Aaron A.
Pascual, Mercedes
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv POPULATION DENSITY
DENGUE
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL WAVES
topic POPULATION DENSITY
DENGUE
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL WAVES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.
Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Picinini Freitas, Laís. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; Brasil
Fil: Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo. Fundación Oswaldo Cruz; Brasil
Fil: King, Aaron A.. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Pascual, Mercedes. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos
description The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/213718
Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Picinini Freitas, Laís; Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo; King, Aaron A.; Pascual, Mercedes; Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics; Nature; Nature Communications; 13; 1; 12-2022; 1-9
2041-1723
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/213718
identifier_str_mv Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Picinini Freitas, Laís; Gonçalves Cruz, Oswaldo; King, Aaron A.; Pascual, Mercedes; Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics; Nature; Nature Communications; 13; 1; 12-2022; 1-9
2041-1723
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-022-28231-w
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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