Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak

Autores
Barmak, Daniel Hernan; Dorso, Claudio Oscar; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infected humans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with high levels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks.
Fil: Barmak, Daniel Hernan. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina;
Fil: Dorso, Claudio Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;
Materia
Dengue Fever
Infectious Disease Control
Mathematical Modelling
Spatial Modelling
Outbreaks
Spatial Modelling
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2543
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2543
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreakBarmak, Daniel HernanDorso, Claudio OscarOtero, Marcelo JavierSolari, Hernan GustavoDengue FeverInfectious Disease ControlMathematical ModellingSpatial ModellingOutbreaksSpatial Modellinghttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infected humans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with high levels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks.Fil: Barmak, Daniel Hernan. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina;Fil: Dorso, Claudio Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;Cambridge University Press2013-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/2543Barmak, Daniel Hernan; Dorso, Claudio Oscar; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak; Cambridge University Press; Epidemiology and Infection; 142; 3; 3-2013; 545-5610950-2688http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9153582&fileId=S0950268813001301enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0950268813001301info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:31:14Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2543instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:31:15.059CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
title Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
spellingShingle Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
Barmak, Daniel Hernan
Dengue Fever
Infectious Disease Control
Mathematical Modelling
Spatial Modelling
Outbreaks
Spatial Modelling
title_short Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
title_full Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
title_fullStr Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
title_full_unstemmed Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
title_sort Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Barmak, Daniel Hernan
Dorso, Claudio Oscar
Otero, Marcelo Javier
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author Barmak, Daniel Hernan
author_facet Barmak, Daniel Hernan
Dorso, Claudio Oscar
Otero, Marcelo Javier
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author_role author
author2 Dorso, Claudio Oscar
Otero, Marcelo Javier
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Dengue Fever
Infectious Disease Control
Mathematical Modelling
Spatial Modelling
Outbreaks
Spatial Modelling
topic Dengue Fever
Infectious Disease Control
Mathematical Modelling
Spatial Modelling
Outbreaks
Spatial Modelling
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infected humans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with high levels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks.
Fil: Barmak, Daniel Hernan. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina;
Fil: Dorso, Claudio Oscar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina;
description We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infected humans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with high levels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2543
Barmak, Daniel Hernan; Dorso, Claudio Oscar; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak; Cambridge University Press; Epidemiology and Infection; 142; 3; 3-2013; 545-561
0950-2688
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9153582&fileId=S0950268813001301
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2543
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9153582&fileId=S0950268813001301
identifier_str_mv Barmak, Daniel Hernan; Dorso, Claudio Oscar; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak; Cambridge University Press; Epidemiology and Infection; 142; 3; 3-2013; 545-561
0950-2688
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0950268813001301
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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