The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies

Autores
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures.
Fil: Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina
Fil: Sartorio, Marco. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina
Fil: Boruchowicz, Cynthia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lopez Boo, Florencia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos
Fil: Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
PARTISANSHIP
COVID-19
DEATHS
POLICIES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/220287

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policiesFreira Polleri, Maria LuciaSartorio, MarcoBoruchowicz, CynthiaLopez Boo, FlorenciaNavajas Ahumada, Joaquin MarianoPARTISANSHIPCOVID-19DEATHSPOLICIEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures.Fil: Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; ArgentinaFil: Sartorio, Marco. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; ArgentinaFil: Boruchowicz, Cynthia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados UnidosFil: Lopez Boo, Florencia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados UnidosFil: Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaSpringer2021-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/220287Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano; The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies; Springer; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; 8; 1; 8-2021; 1-102662-9992CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-00870-2info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1057/s41599-021-00870-2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:33:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/220287instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:33:20.101CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
title The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
spellingShingle The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia
PARTISANSHIP
COVID-19
DEATHS
POLICIES
title_short The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
title_full The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
title_fullStr The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
title_full_unstemmed The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
title_sort The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia
Sartorio, Marco
Boruchowicz, Cynthia
Lopez Boo, Florencia
Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano
author Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia
author_facet Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia
Sartorio, Marco
Boruchowicz, Cynthia
Lopez Boo, Florencia
Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano
author_role author
author2 Sartorio, Marco
Boruchowicz, Cynthia
Lopez Boo, Florencia
Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PARTISANSHIP
COVID-19
DEATHS
POLICIES
topic PARTISANSHIP
COVID-19
DEATHS
POLICIES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures.
Fil: Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina
Fil: Sartorio, Marco. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina
Fil: Boruchowicz, Cynthia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lopez Boo, Florencia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos
Fil: Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/220287
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano; The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies; Springer; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; 8; 1; 8-2021; 1-10
2662-9992
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/220287
identifier_str_mv Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano; The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies; Springer; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; 8; 1; 8-2021; 1-10
2662-9992
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-00870-2
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1057/s41599-021-00870-2
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
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instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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