The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies
- Autores
- Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano
- Año de publicación
- 2021
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures.
Fil: Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina
Fil: Sartorio, Marco. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina
Fil: Boruchowicz, Cynthia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lopez Boo, Florencia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos
Fil: Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina - Materia
-
PARTISANSHIP
COVID-19
DEATHS
POLICIES - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/220287
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policiesFreira Polleri, Maria LuciaSartorio, MarcoBoruchowicz, CynthiaLopez Boo, FlorenciaNavajas Ahumada, Joaquin MarianoPARTISANSHIPCOVID-19DEATHSPOLICIEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures.Fil: Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; ArgentinaFil: Sartorio, Marco. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; ArgentinaFil: Boruchowicz, Cynthia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados UnidosFil: Lopez Boo, Florencia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados UnidosFil: Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaSpringer2021-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/220287Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano; The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies; Springer; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; 8; 1; 8-2021; 1-102662-9992CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-00870-2info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1057/s41599-021-00870-2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:33:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/220287instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:33:20.101CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
title |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
spellingShingle |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia PARTISANSHIP COVID-19 DEATHS POLICIES |
title_short |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
title_full |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
title_fullStr |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
title_full_unstemmed |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
title_sort |
The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia Sartorio, Marco Boruchowicz, Cynthia Lopez Boo, Florencia Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano |
author |
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia |
author_facet |
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia Sartorio, Marco Boruchowicz, Cynthia Lopez Boo, Florencia Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sartorio, Marco Boruchowicz, Cynthia Lopez Boo, Florencia Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
PARTISANSHIP COVID-19 DEATHS POLICIES |
topic |
PARTISANSHIP COVID-19 DEATHS POLICIES |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.1 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures. Fil: Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina Fil: Sartorio, Marco. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina Fil: Boruchowicz, Cynthia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos Fil: Lopez Boo, Florencia. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.; Estados Unidos Fil: Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Escuela de Negocios; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina |
description |
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that has forced governments around the world to implement large-scale interventions such as school closures and national lockdowns. Previous research has shown that partisanship plays a major role in explaining public attitudes towards these policies and beliefs about the intensity of the crisis. However, it remains unclear whether and how partisan differences in policy support relate to partisan gaps in beliefs about the number of deaths that the pandemic will cause. Do individuals who forecast fewer COVID-19 deaths show less agreement with preventive measures? How does partisanship correlate with people’s beliefs about the intensity of the crisis and their support for COVID-19 policies? Here, we sought to answer these questions by performing a behavioral experiment in Argentina (Experiment 1, N = 640) and three quasi-replication studies in Uruguay (Experiment 2, N = 372), Brazil (Experiment 3, N = 353) and the United States (Experiment 4, N = 630). In all settings, participants forecasted the number of COVID-19 deaths in their country after considering either a high or low number, and then rated their agreement with a series of interventions. This anchoring procedure, which experimentally induced a large variability in the forecasted number of deaths, did not modify policy preferences. Instead, each experiment provided evidence that partisanship was a key indicator of the optimism of forecasts and the degree of support for COVID-19 policies. Remarkably, we found that the number of forecasted deaths was robustly uncorrelated with participants’ agreement with preventive measures designed to prevent those deaths. We discuss these empirical observations in the light of recently proposed theories of tribal partisan behavior. Moreover, we argue that these results may inform policy making as they suggest that even the most effective communication strategy focused on alerting the public about the severity of the pandemic would probably not translate into greater support for COVID-19 preventive measures. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-08 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/220287 Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano; The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies; Springer; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; 8; 1; 8-2021; 1-10 2662-9992 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/220287 |
identifier_str_mv |
Freira Polleri, Maria Lucia; Sartorio, Marco; Boruchowicz, Cynthia; Lopez Boo, Florencia; Navajas Ahumada, Joaquin Mariano; The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies; Springer; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications; 8; 1; 8-2021; 1-10 2662-9992 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-00870-2 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1057/s41599-021-00870-2 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
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application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
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Springer |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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