What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot

Autores
Levers, Christian; Piquer Rodríguez, María; Gollnow, Florian; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio; Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio; le Polain de Waroux, Yann; Müller, Daniela María; Nori, Javier; Pötzschner, Florian; Romero Muñoz, Alfredo; Kuemmerle, Tobias
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity; Alemania
Fil: Piquer Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Freie Universität Berlin; Alemania
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Stockholm Environment Institute; Suecia
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Proyecto Quimilero; Argentina
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo; Argentina
Fil: Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina
Fil: le Polain de Waroux, Yann. McGill University; Canadá
Fil: Müller, Daniela María. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies; Alemania
Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina
Fil: Pötzschner, Florian. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania
Fil: Romero Muñoz, Alfredo. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department. Conservation Biogeography Lab.; Alemania
Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania
Materia
Areas protegidas
Chaco
Land use
Future
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268567
Acceder
id CONICETDig_c5181c1ef37ab5491e0722a9f387bbb1
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268567
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspotLevers, ChristianPiquer Rodríguez, MaríaGollnow, FlorianBaumann, MatthiasCamino, MicaelaGasparri, Nestor IgnacioGavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignaciole Polain de Waroux, YannMüller, Daniela MaríaNori, JavierPötzschner, FlorianRomero Muñoz, AlfredoKuemmerle, TobiasAreas protegidasChacoLand useFuturehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity; AlemaniaFil: Piquer Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Freie Universität Berlin; AlemaniaFil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Stockholm Environment Institute; SueciaFil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; AlemaniaFil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Proyecto Quimilero; ArgentinaFil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo; ArgentinaFil: Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; ArgentinaFil: le Polain de Waroux, Yann. McGill University; CanadáFil: Müller, Daniela María. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies; AlemaniaFil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; ArgentinaFil: Pötzschner, Florian. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; AlemaniaFil: Romero Muñoz, Alfredo. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department. Conservation Biogeography Lab.; AlemaniaFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; AlemaniaIOP Publishing2024-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/268567Levers, Christian; Piquer Rodríguez, María; Gollnow, Florian; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; et al.; What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 19; 6; 5-2024; 1-161748-9326CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:05:24Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/268567instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:05:24.425CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
spellingShingle What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
Levers, Christian
Areas protegidas
Chaco
Land use
Future
title_short What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_full What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_fullStr What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_full_unstemmed What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_sort What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Levers, Christian
Piquer Rodríguez, María
Gollnow, Florian
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio
Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio
le Polain de Waroux, Yann
Müller, Daniela María
Nori, Javier
Pötzschner, Florian
Romero Muñoz, Alfredo
Kuemmerle, Tobias
author Levers, Christian
author_facet Levers, Christian
Piquer Rodríguez, María
Gollnow, Florian
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio
Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio
le Polain de Waroux, Yann
Müller, Daniela María
Nori, Javier
Pötzschner, Florian
Romero Muñoz, Alfredo
Kuemmerle, Tobias
author_role author
author2 Piquer Rodríguez, María
Gollnow, Florian
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio
Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio
le Polain de Waroux, Yann
Müller, Daniela María
Nori, Javier
Pötzschner, Florian
Romero Muñoz, Alfredo
Kuemmerle, Tobias
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Areas protegidas
Chaco
Land use
Future
topic Areas protegidas
Chaco
Land use
Future
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity; Alemania
Fil: Piquer Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Freie Universität Berlin; Alemania
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Alemania. Stockholm Environment Institute; Suecia
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Proyecto Quimilero; Argentina
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo; Argentina
Fil: Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina
Fil: le Polain de Waroux, Yann. McGill University; Canadá
Fil: Müller, Daniela María. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies; Alemania
Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina
Fil: Pötzschner, Florian. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania
Fil: Romero Muñoz, Alfredo. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department. Conservation Biogeography Lab.; Alemania
Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-universitat Zu Berlin. Geography Department.; Alemania
description Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/268567
Levers, Christian; Piquer Rodríguez, María; Gollnow, Florian; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; et al.; What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 19; 6; 5-2024; 1-16
1748-9326
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/268567
identifier_str_mv Levers, Christian; Piquer Rodríguez, María; Gollnow, Florian; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; et al.; What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?: Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 19; 6; 5-2024; 1-16
1748-9326
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1846781331784073216
score 12.982451

Publicaciones similares