What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot

Autores
Levers, Christian; Piquer-Rodríguez, María; Gollnow, Florian; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio; Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio; De Waroux, Yann le Polain; Müller, Daniel; Nori, Javier
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
español castellano
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Factor de Impacto 5.8
Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden.
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina.
Abstract Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden.
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina.
Materia
Land-use change
Future scenarios
Tropical dry forests and savannas
Forest-dependent people
Indigenous communities
Impact assessments
Social-ecological archetypes
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
Repositorio
Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
OAI Identificador
oai:rdu.unc.edu.ar:11086/552708
Acceder
id RDUUNC_dfa1798fa2a5c084554aaeea5a8e2316
oai_identifier_str oai:rdu.unc.edu.ar:11086/552708
network_acronym_str RDUUNC
repository_id_str 2572
network_name_str Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
spelling What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspotLevers, ChristianPiquer-Rodríguez, MaríaGollnow, FlorianBaumann, MatthiasCamino, MicaelaGasparri, Nestor IgnacioGavier-Pizarro, Gregorio IgnacioDe Waroux, Yann le PolainMüller, DanielNori, JavierLand-use changeFuture scenariosTropical dry forests and savannasForest-dependent peopleIndigenous communitiesImpact assessmentsSocial-ecological archetypesFactor de Impacto 5.8Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands.Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany.Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden.Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina.Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina.Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina.Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina.Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina.Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá.Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá.Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany.Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany.Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina.Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina.Abstract Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionFil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands.Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany.Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden.Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina.Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina.Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina.Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina.Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina.Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá.Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá.Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany.Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany.Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina.Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina.https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4810-9024https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8181-5049https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6314-1877https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2375-3622https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7375-6277https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8389-1379https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3239-0595https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3239-0595https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8988-0718https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7127-79342024-05-09info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfLevers, C., Piquer-Rodríguez, M., Gollnow, F., Baumann, M., Camino, M., Gasparri, N. I., ... & Kuemmerle, T. (2024). What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6), 064003.1748-9326http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552708https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6spainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)instname:Universidad Nacional de Córdobainstacron:UNC2025-10-23T11:17:08Zoai:rdu.unc.edu.ar:11086/552708Institucionalhttps://rdu.unc.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://rdu.unc.edu.ar/oai/snrdoca.unc@gmail.comArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:25722025-10-23 11:17:08.726Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC) - Universidad Nacional de Córdobafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
spellingShingle What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
Levers, Christian
Land-use change
Future scenarios
Tropical dry forests and savannas
Forest-dependent people
Indigenous communities
Impact assessments
Social-ecological archetypes
title_short What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_full What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_fullStr What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_full_unstemmed What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
title_sort What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Levers, Christian
Piquer-Rodríguez, María
Gollnow, Florian
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio
Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio
De Waroux, Yann le Polain
Müller, Daniel
Nori, Javier
author Levers, Christian
author_facet Levers, Christian
Piquer-Rodríguez, María
Gollnow, Florian
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio
Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio
De Waroux, Yann le Polain
Müller, Daniel
Nori, Javier
author_role author
author2 Piquer-Rodríguez, María
Gollnow, Florian
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio
Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio
De Waroux, Yann le Polain
Müller, Daniel
Nori, Javier
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4810-9024
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8181-5049
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6314-1877
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2375-3622
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7375-6277
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8389-1379
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3239-0595
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3239-0595
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8988-0718
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7127-7934
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Land-use change
Future scenarios
Tropical dry forests and savannas
Forest-dependent people
Indigenous communities
Impact assessments
Social-ecological archetypes
topic Land-use change
Future scenarios
Tropical dry forests and savannas
Forest-dependent people
Indigenous communities
Impact assessments
Social-ecological archetypes
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Factor de Impacto 5.8
Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden.
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina.
Abstract Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands.
Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden.
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina.
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina.
Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina.
Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá.
Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany.
Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.
Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina.
description Factor de Impacto 5.8
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-05-09
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
status_str publishedVersion
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv Levers, C., Piquer-Rodríguez, M., Gollnow, F., Baumann, M., Camino, M., Gasparri, N. I., ... & Kuemmerle, T. (2024). What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6), 064003.
1748-9326
http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552708
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6
identifier_str_mv Levers, C., Piquer-Rodríguez, M., Gollnow, F., Baumann, M., Camino, M., Gasparri, N. I., ... & Kuemmerle, T. (2024). What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6), 064003.
1748-9326
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6
url http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552708
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv spa
language spa
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
instname:Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
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reponame_str Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
collection Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
instacron_str UNC
institution UNC
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Digital Universitario (UNC) - Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
repository.mail.fl_str_mv oca.unc@gmail.com
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