Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100

Autores
Neukom, Raphael; Rohrer, Mario; Calanca, Pierluigi; Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; Acuña, Delia; Christie, Duncan A.; Morales, Mariano Santos
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000-2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965-2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16-84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071-2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat.
Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern; Suiza. Universitat Zurich; Suiza
Fil: Rohrer, Mario. Meteodat Gmbh; Suiza
Fil: Calanca, Pierluigi. Institute for Sustainability Sciences ISS; Suiza
Fil: Salzmann, Nadine. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universite de Fribourg (unifr);
Fil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; Suiza
Fil: Acuña, Delia. Servicio Nacional de Meteorología E Hidrología del Perú; Perú
Fil: Christie, Duncan A.. Center of Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTH AMERICA
CENTRAL ANDES
PRECIPITATION
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
PALEOCLIMATE
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/182817

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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100Neukom, RaphaelRohrer, MarioCalanca, PierluigiSalzmann, NadineHuggel, ChristianAcuña, DeliaChristie, Duncan A.Morales, Mariano SantosCLIMATE CHANGESOUTH AMERICACENTRAL ANDESPRECIPITATIONCLIMATE PROJECTIONSPALEOCLIMATEhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000-2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965-2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16-84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071-2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat.Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern; Suiza. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Rohrer, Mario. Meteodat Gmbh; SuizaFil: Calanca, Pierluigi. Institute for Sustainability Sciences ISS; SuizaFil: Salzmann, Nadine. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universite de Fribourg (unifr);Fil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Acuña, Delia. Servicio Nacional de Meteorología E Hidrología del Perú; PerúFil: Christie, Duncan A.. Center of Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; ChileFil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaIOP Publishing2015-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/182817Neukom, Raphael; Rohrer, Mario; Calanca, Pierluigi; Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; et al.; Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 10; 8; 8-2015; 1-141748-9326CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:51:29Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/182817instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:51:29.674CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
title Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
spellingShingle Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
Neukom, Raphael
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTH AMERICA
CENTRAL ANDES
PRECIPITATION
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
PALEOCLIMATE
title_short Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
title_full Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
title_fullStr Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
title_full_unstemmed Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
title_sort Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Neukom, Raphael
Rohrer, Mario
Calanca, Pierluigi
Salzmann, Nadine
Huggel, Christian
Acuña, Delia
Christie, Duncan A.
Morales, Mariano Santos
author Neukom, Raphael
author_facet Neukom, Raphael
Rohrer, Mario
Calanca, Pierluigi
Salzmann, Nadine
Huggel, Christian
Acuña, Delia
Christie, Duncan A.
Morales, Mariano Santos
author_role author
author2 Rohrer, Mario
Calanca, Pierluigi
Salzmann, Nadine
Huggel, Christian
Acuña, Delia
Christie, Duncan A.
Morales, Mariano Santos
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTH AMERICA
CENTRAL ANDES
PRECIPITATION
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
PALEOCLIMATE
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTH AMERICA
CENTRAL ANDES
PRECIPITATION
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
PALEOCLIMATE
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000-2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965-2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16-84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071-2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat.
Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern; Suiza. Universitat Zurich; Suiza
Fil: Rohrer, Mario. Meteodat Gmbh; Suiza
Fil: Calanca, Pierluigi. Institute for Sustainability Sciences ISS; Suiza
Fil: Salzmann, Nadine. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universite de Fribourg (unifr);
Fil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; Suiza
Fil: Acuña, Delia. Servicio Nacional de Meteorología E Hidrología del Perú; Perú
Fil: Christie, Duncan A.. Center of Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
description Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000-2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965-2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16-84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071-2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/182817
Neukom, Raphael; Rohrer, Mario; Calanca, Pierluigi; Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; et al.; Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 10; 8; 8-2015; 1-14
1748-9326
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/182817
identifier_str_mv Neukom, Raphael; Rohrer, Mario; Calanca, Pierluigi; Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; et al.; Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100; IOP Publishing; Environmental Research Letters; 10; 8; 8-2015; 1-14
1748-9326
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv IOP Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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