Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

Autores
Neukom, Raphael; Gergis, Joëlle; Karoly, David J.; Wanner, Heinz; Curran, Mark; Elbert, Julie; González Rouco, Fidel; Linsley, Braddock K.; Moy, Andrew D.; Mundo, Ignacio Alberto; Raible, Christoph C.; Steig, Eric J.; Van Ommen, Tas; Vance, Tessa; Villalba, Ricardo; Zinke, Jens; Frank, David
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The Earths climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594-1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000-1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean-atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations alone.
Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern; Suiza. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
Fil: Gergis, Joëlle. University of Melbourne; Australia
Fil: Karoly, David J.. University of Melbourne; Australia
Fil: Wanner, Heinz. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: Curran, Mark. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Elbert, Julie. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: González Rouco, Fidel. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
Fil: Linsley, Braddock K.. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Moy, Andrew D.. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Mundo, Ignacio Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales. Laboratorio de Investigacion de Sistemas Ecologicos y Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Raible, Christoph C.. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: Steig, Eric J.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos
Fil: Van Ommen, Tas. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Vance, Tessa. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Zinke, Jens. University of Western Australia; Australia. Australian Institute of Marine Science; Australia
Fil: Frank, David. University of Bern; Suiza. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
Materia
Inter-Hemispheric Climates
Tree Rings
Paleoclimatology
Little Ice Age
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/37215
Acceder
id CONICETDig_87ee1c4eca090ecedc496b648c420d55
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/37215
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millenniumNeukom, RaphaelGergis, JoëlleKaroly, David J.Wanner, HeinzCurran, MarkElbert, JulieGonzález Rouco, FidelLinsley, Braddock K.Moy, Andrew D.Mundo, Ignacio AlbertoRaible, Christoph C.Steig, Eric J.Van Ommen, TasVance, TessaVillalba, RicardoZinke, JensFrank, DavidInter-Hemispheric ClimatesTree RingsPaleoclimatologyLittle Ice Agehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The Earths climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594-1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000-1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean-atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations alone.Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern; Suiza. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; SuizaFil: Gergis, Joëlle. University of Melbourne; AustraliaFil: Karoly, David J.. University of Melbourne; AustraliaFil: Wanner, Heinz. University of Bern; SuizaFil: Curran, Mark. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Elbert, Julie. University of Bern; SuizaFil: González Rouco, Fidel. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; EspañaFil: Linsley, Braddock K.. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Moy, Andrew D.. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Mundo, Ignacio Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales. Laboratorio de Investigacion de Sistemas Ecologicos y Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Raible, Christoph C.. University of Bern; SuizaFil: Steig, Eric J.. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Van Ommen, Tas. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Vance, Tessa. University of Tasmania; AustraliaFil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Zinke, Jens. University of Western Australia; Australia. Australian Institute of Marine Science; AustraliaFil: Frank, David. University of Bern; Suiza. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; SuizaNature Publishing Group2014-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/37215Neukom, Raphael; Gergis, Joëlle; Karoly, David J.; Wanner, Heinz; Curran, Mark; et al.; Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 4; 5; 3-2014; 362-3671758-678XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2174info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/nclimate2174info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:36:39Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/37215instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:36:39.763CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
title Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
spellingShingle Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
Neukom, Raphael
Inter-Hemispheric Climates
Tree Rings
Paleoclimatology
Little Ice Age
title_short Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
title_full Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
title_fullStr Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
title_full_unstemmed Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
title_sort Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Neukom, Raphael
Gergis, Joëlle
Karoly, David J.
Wanner, Heinz
Curran, Mark
Elbert, Julie
González Rouco, Fidel
Linsley, Braddock K.
Moy, Andrew D.
Mundo, Ignacio Alberto
Raible, Christoph C.
Steig, Eric J.
Van Ommen, Tas
Vance, Tessa
Villalba, Ricardo
Zinke, Jens
Frank, David
author Neukom, Raphael
author_facet Neukom, Raphael
Gergis, Joëlle
Karoly, David J.
Wanner, Heinz
Curran, Mark
Elbert, Julie
González Rouco, Fidel
Linsley, Braddock K.
Moy, Andrew D.
Mundo, Ignacio Alberto
Raible, Christoph C.
Steig, Eric J.
Van Ommen, Tas
Vance, Tessa
Villalba, Ricardo
Zinke, Jens
Frank, David
author_role author
author2 Gergis, Joëlle
Karoly, David J.
Wanner, Heinz
Curran, Mark
Elbert, Julie
González Rouco, Fidel
Linsley, Braddock K.
Moy, Andrew D.
Mundo, Ignacio Alberto
Raible, Christoph C.
Steig, Eric J.
Van Ommen, Tas
Vance, Tessa
Villalba, Ricardo
Zinke, Jens
Frank, David
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Inter-Hemispheric Climates
Tree Rings
Paleoclimatology
Little Ice Age
topic Inter-Hemispheric Climates
Tree Rings
Paleoclimatology
Little Ice Age
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The Earths climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594-1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000-1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean-atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations alone.
Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern; Suiza. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
Fil: Gergis, Joëlle. University of Melbourne; Australia
Fil: Karoly, David J.. University of Melbourne; Australia
Fil: Wanner, Heinz. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: Curran, Mark. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Elbert, Julie. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: González Rouco, Fidel. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España. Universidad Complutense de Madrid; España
Fil: Linsley, Braddock K.. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Moy, Andrew D.. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Mundo, Ignacio Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales. Laboratorio de Investigacion de Sistemas Ecologicos y Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Raible, Christoph C.. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: Steig, Eric J.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos
Fil: Van Ommen, Tas. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Vance, Tessa. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Zinke, Jens. University of Western Australia; Australia. Australian Institute of Marine Science; Australia
Fil: Frank, David. University of Bern; Suiza. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza
description The Earths climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594-1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000-1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere-Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean-atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations alone.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/37215
Neukom, Raphael; Gergis, Joëlle; Karoly, David J.; Wanner, Heinz; Curran, Mark; et al.; Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 4; 5; 3-2014; 362-367
1758-678X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/37215
identifier_str_mv Neukom, Raphael; Gergis, Joëlle; Karoly, David J.; Wanner, Heinz; Curran, Mark; et al.; Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 4; 5; 3-2014; 362-367
1758-678X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2174
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/nclimate2174
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1846082833625382912
score 13.22299

Publicaciones similares