Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf

Autores
Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The Río de la Plata (RdP) Estuary is affected by significant surges several times per year. This phenomenon has historically caused catastrophic water-level enlargements of up to 4.44 m, threatening and claiming human lives and producing major economic and material damages. The negative surges are less frequent, but when they do occur, inhibit the access to the principal harbors and waterways and disable the drinking water intakes of the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (the Capital City of Argentina) with a population of more and 16 million people. Recent works suggest that the number and strength of the surge events have been increasing with time. Nevertheless, a state-of-the-art system for the forecast of those events is not available yet. In this work, the implementation of a numerical modelling system for the forecast/hindcast of storm surges and the associated currents in the RdP and the adjacent continental shelf are presented and validated. This pre-operational system is based on an adaptation of the CROCO community ocean model to solve the dynamics associated with the surge. The model was implemented using a set of routines written in open-source programming language (Linux and Python) to be cheap and efficient and to ensure an easy future transfer to the services responsible for the alerts. For a better representation of the regional atmospheric dynamics, wind speed and sea-level pressure used to force the simulations were corrected using direct observations collected at an oceanographic buoy anchored at the estuary. The model system performance in hindcast mode was quantified by comparison with observations from tidal gauges and current meters at several locations of the estuary and the adjacent shelf. Percent errors for water level over the whole estuary and currents in the intermediate and exterior estuary drove to average results of 8 and 13%, respectively. The skill scores resulted, on average, of 0.90 and 0.80, respectively. The model performance in both hindcast and forecast modes was evaluated during historical extreme storm surges. Results support the good performance of the model to simulate even extreme events with average skill scores of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Results are encouraging, particularly taking into account the limitations in the atmospheric forcing for the region, where only a relatively small number of direct observations are assimilated by the reanalysis and forecast models.
Fil: Dinapoli, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Simionato, Claudia Gloria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Moreira, Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Materia
PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING SYSTEM
RÍO DE LA PLATA ESTUARY
STORM SURGES ALERT AND FORECAST
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144108

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental ShelfDinapoli, MatiasSimionato, Claudia GloriaMoreira, DiegoPRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING SYSTEMRÍO DE LA PLATA ESTUARYSTORM SURGES ALERT AND FORECASThttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The Río de la Plata (RdP) Estuary is affected by significant surges several times per year. This phenomenon has historically caused catastrophic water-level enlargements of up to 4.44 m, threatening and claiming human lives and producing major economic and material damages. The negative surges are less frequent, but when they do occur, inhibit the access to the principal harbors and waterways and disable the drinking water intakes of the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (the Capital City of Argentina) with a population of more and 16 million people. Recent works suggest that the number and strength of the surge events have been increasing with time. Nevertheless, a state-of-the-art system for the forecast of those events is not available yet. In this work, the implementation of a numerical modelling system for the forecast/hindcast of storm surges and the associated currents in the RdP and the adjacent continental shelf are presented and validated. This pre-operational system is based on an adaptation of the CROCO community ocean model to solve the dynamics associated with the surge. The model was implemented using a set of routines written in open-source programming language (Linux and Python) to be cheap and efficient and to ensure an easy future transfer to the services responsible for the alerts. For a better representation of the regional atmospheric dynamics, wind speed and sea-level pressure used to force the simulations were corrected using direct observations collected at an oceanographic buoy anchored at the estuary. The model system performance in hindcast mode was quantified by comparison with observations from tidal gauges and current meters at several locations of the estuary and the adjacent shelf. Percent errors for water level over the whole estuary and currents in the intermediate and exterior estuary drove to average results of 8 and 13%, respectively. The skill scores resulted, on average, of 0.90 and 0.80, respectively. The model performance in both hindcast and forecast modes was evaluated during historical extreme storm surges. Results support the good performance of the model to simulate even extreme events with average skill scores of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Results are encouraging, particularly taking into account the limitations in the atmospheric forcing for the region, where only a relatively small number of direct observations are assimilated by the reanalysis and forecast models.Fil: Dinapoli, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Simionato, Claudia Gloria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Moreira, Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaSpringer2020-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/144108Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego; Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf; Springer; Natural Hazards; 103; 2; 6-2020; 2231-22590921-030XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04079-5info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s11069-020-04079-5info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:52:46Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144108instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:52:46.751CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
title Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
spellingShingle Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
Dinapoli, Matias
PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING SYSTEM
RÍO DE LA PLATA ESTUARY
STORM SURGES ALERT AND FORECAST
title_short Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
title_full Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
title_fullStr Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
title_full_unstemmed Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
title_sort Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Dinapoli, Matias
Simionato, Claudia Gloria
Moreira, Diego
author Dinapoli, Matias
author_facet Dinapoli, Matias
Simionato, Claudia Gloria
Moreira, Diego
author_role author
author2 Simionato, Claudia Gloria
Moreira, Diego
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING SYSTEM
RÍO DE LA PLATA ESTUARY
STORM SURGES ALERT AND FORECAST
topic PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING SYSTEM
RÍO DE LA PLATA ESTUARY
STORM SURGES ALERT AND FORECAST
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The Río de la Plata (RdP) Estuary is affected by significant surges several times per year. This phenomenon has historically caused catastrophic water-level enlargements of up to 4.44 m, threatening and claiming human lives and producing major economic and material damages. The negative surges are less frequent, but when they do occur, inhibit the access to the principal harbors and waterways and disable the drinking water intakes of the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (the Capital City of Argentina) with a population of more and 16 million people. Recent works suggest that the number and strength of the surge events have been increasing with time. Nevertheless, a state-of-the-art system for the forecast of those events is not available yet. In this work, the implementation of a numerical modelling system for the forecast/hindcast of storm surges and the associated currents in the RdP and the adjacent continental shelf are presented and validated. This pre-operational system is based on an adaptation of the CROCO community ocean model to solve the dynamics associated with the surge. The model was implemented using a set of routines written in open-source programming language (Linux and Python) to be cheap and efficient and to ensure an easy future transfer to the services responsible for the alerts. For a better representation of the regional atmospheric dynamics, wind speed and sea-level pressure used to force the simulations were corrected using direct observations collected at an oceanographic buoy anchored at the estuary. The model system performance in hindcast mode was quantified by comparison with observations from tidal gauges and current meters at several locations of the estuary and the adjacent shelf. Percent errors for water level over the whole estuary and currents in the intermediate and exterior estuary drove to average results of 8 and 13%, respectively. The skill scores resulted, on average, of 0.90 and 0.80, respectively. The model performance in both hindcast and forecast modes was evaluated during historical extreme storm surges. Results support the good performance of the model to simulate even extreme events with average skill scores of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Results are encouraging, particularly taking into account the limitations in the atmospheric forcing for the region, where only a relatively small number of direct observations are assimilated by the reanalysis and forecast models.
Fil: Dinapoli, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Simionato, Claudia Gloria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Moreira, Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
description The Río de la Plata (RdP) Estuary is affected by significant surges several times per year. This phenomenon has historically caused catastrophic water-level enlargements of up to 4.44 m, threatening and claiming human lives and producing major economic and material damages. The negative surges are less frequent, but when they do occur, inhibit the access to the principal harbors and waterways and disable the drinking water intakes of the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (the Capital City of Argentina) with a population of more and 16 million people. Recent works suggest that the number and strength of the surge events have been increasing with time. Nevertheless, a state-of-the-art system for the forecast of those events is not available yet. In this work, the implementation of a numerical modelling system for the forecast/hindcast of storm surges and the associated currents in the RdP and the adjacent continental shelf are presented and validated. This pre-operational system is based on an adaptation of the CROCO community ocean model to solve the dynamics associated with the surge. The model was implemented using a set of routines written in open-source programming language (Linux and Python) to be cheap and efficient and to ensure an easy future transfer to the services responsible for the alerts. For a better representation of the regional atmospheric dynamics, wind speed and sea-level pressure used to force the simulations were corrected using direct observations collected at an oceanographic buoy anchored at the estuary. The model system performance in hindcast mode was quantified by comparison with observations from tidal gauges and current meters at several locations of the estuary and the adjacent shelf. Percent errors for water level over the whole estuary and currents in the intermediate and exterior estuary drove to average results of 8 and 13%, respectively. The skill scores resulted, on average, of 0.90 and 0.80, respectively. The model performance in both hindcast and forecast modes was evaluated during historical extreme storm surges. Results support the good performance of the model to simulate even extreme events with average skill scores of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Results are encouraging, particularly taking into account the limitations in the atmospheric forcing for the region, where only a relatively small number of direct observations are assimilated by the reanalysis and forecast models.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144108
Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego; Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf; Springer; Natural Hazards; 103; 2; 6-2020; 2231-2259
0921-030X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144108
identifier_str_mv Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego; Development and validation of a storm surge forecasting/hindcasting modelling system for the extensive Río de la Plata Estuary and its adjacent Continental Shelf; Springer; Natural Hazards; 103; 2; 6-2020; 2231-2259
0921-030X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04079-5
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s11069-020-04079-5
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
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instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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