Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System

Autores
Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The large and fast-flowing Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary is affected by extreme storm surges (above ±2 m with respect to tidal datum), which have large impacts on the millions of inhabitants and for navigation. In this work the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO) numerical model was modified and implemented as a set of regional one-way nested 2D applications for the hindcast/forecast of water level in the RdP. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was carried out to determine the impact on the numerical solutions of the uncertainties in the different modeling parameter forcings and to highlight the need for the construction of a modeling system that provides meaningful information to the potential users. The SA included the friction coefficients, the wind speed and di-rection, the atmospheric surface pressure, and the continental discharge. Water level is most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind forcing; even small changes in this input can create large errors in the water level forecast/hindcast. Forcing with different analyses’ wind products yielded differences of up to 50% in the peak water levels. Results also showed that the modeling system requires a reasonable adjustment of the bottom friction parameters; that it is important to include the atmospheric surface pressure forcing; and that, from the point of view of water level forecast, it is not necessary to couple a hydrological model in spite of the enormous runoff of this estuary. Given the strong sensitivity to errors in the wind forcing, we believe it is important to provide estimates of uncertainty together with hindcast/forecast water level for these predictions to be of greatest quality and practical applicability.
Fil: Dinapoli, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Simionato, Claudia Gloria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Moreira, Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Materia
Model sensitivity
Storm surge modelling
Río de la Plata estuary
Forecast
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144096
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144096
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spelling Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast SystemDinapoli, MatiasSimionato, Claudia GloriaMoreira, DiegoModel sensitivityStorm surge modellingRío de la Plata estuaryForecasthttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The large and fast-flowing Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary is affected by extreme storm surges (above ±2 m with respect to tidal datum), which have large impacts on the millions of inhabitants and for navigation. In this work the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO) numerical model was modified and implemented as a set of regional one-way nested 2D applications for the hindcast/forecast of water level in the RdP. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was carried out to determine the impact on the numerical solutions of the uncertainties in the different modeling parameter forcings and to highlight the need for the construction of a modeling system that provides meaningful information to the potential users. The SA included the friction coefficients, the wind speed and di-rection, the atmospheric surface pressure, and the continental discharge. Water level is most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind forcing; even small changes in this input can create large errors in the water level forecast/hindcast. Forcing with different analyses’ wind products yielded differences of up to 50% in the peak water levels. Results also showed that the modeling system requires a reasonable adjustment of the bottom friction parameters; that it is important to include the atmospheric surface pressure forcing; and that, from the point of view of water level forecast, it is not necessary to couple a hydrological model in spite of the enormous runoff of this estuary. Given the strong sensitivity to errors in the wind forcing, we believe it is important to provide estimates of uncertainty together with hindcast/forecast water level for these predictions to be of greatest quality and practical applicability.Fil: Dinapoli, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Simionato, Claudia Gloria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Moreira, Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaAmer Meteorological Soc2020-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/144096Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego; Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System; Amer Meteorological Soc; Weather and Forecasting; 35; 3; 6-2020; 1097-11120882-8156CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0171.1info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0171.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:15:36Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/144096instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:15:36.328CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
title Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
spellingShingle Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
Dinapoli, Matias
Model sensitivity
Storm surge modelling
Río de la Plata estuary
Forecast
title_short Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
title_full Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
title_fullStr Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
title_full_unstemmed Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
title_sort Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Dinapoli, Matias
Simionato, Claudia Gloria
Moreira, Diego
author Dinapoli, Matias
author_facet Dinapoli, Matias
Simionato, Claudia Gloria
Moreira, Diego
author_role author
author2 Simionato, Claudia Gloria
Moreira, Diego
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Model sensitivity
Storm surge modelling
Río de la Plata estuary
Forecast
topic Model sensitivity
Storm surge modelling
Río de la Plata estuary
Forecast
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The large and fast-flowing Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary is affected by extreme storm surges (above ±2 m with respect to tidal datum), which have large impacts on the millions of inhabitants and for navigation. In this work the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO) numerical model was modified and implemented as a set of regional one-way nested 2D applications for the hindcast/forecast of water level in the RdP. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was carried out to determine the impact on the numerical solutions of the uncertainties in the different modeling parameter forcings and to highlight the need for the construction of a modeling system that provides meaningful information to the potential users. The SA included the friction coefficients, the wind speed and di-rection, the atmospheric surface pressure, and the continental discharge. Water level is most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind forcing; even small changes in this input can create large errors in the water level forecast/hindcast. Forcing with different analyses’ wind products yielded differences of up to 50% in the peak water levels. Results also showed that the modeling system requires a reasonable adjustment of the bottom friction parameters; that it is important to include the atmospheric surface pressure forcing; and that, from the point of view of water level forecast, it is not necessary to couple a hydrological model in spite of the enormous runoff of this estuary. Given the strong sensitivity to errors in the wind forcing, we believe it is important to provide estimates of uncertainty together with hindcast/forecast water level for these predictions to be of greatest quality and practical applicability.
Fil: Dinapoli, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Simionato, Claudia Gloria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Moreira, Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
description The large and fast-flowing Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary is affected by extreme storm surges (above ±2 m with respect to tidal datum), which have large impacts on the millions of inhabitants and for navigation. In this work the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community Model (CROCO) numerical model was modified and implemented as a set of regional one-way nested 2D applications for the hindcast/forecast of water level in the RdP. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was carried out to determine the impact on the numerical solutions of the uncertainties in the different modeling parameter forcings and to highlight the need for the construction of a modeling system that provides meaningful information to the potential users. The SA included the friction coefficients, the wind speed and di-rection, the atmospheric surface pressure, and the continental discharge. Water level is most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind forcing; even small changes in this input can create large errors in the water level forecast/hindcast. Forcing with different analyses’ wind products yielded differences of up to 50% in the peak water levels. Results also showed that the modeling system requires a reasonable adjustment of the bottom friction parameters; that it is important to include the atmospheric surface pressure forcing; and that, from the point of view of water level forecast, it is not necessary to couple a hydrological model in spite of the enormous runoff of this estuary. Given the strong sensitivity to errors in the wind forcing, we believe it is important to provide estimates of uncertainty together with hindcast/forecast water level for these predictions to be of greatest quality and practical applicability.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144096
Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego; Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System; Amer Meteorological Soc; Weather and Forecasting; 35; 3; 6-2020; 1097-1112
0882-8156
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144096
identifier_str_mv Dinapoli, Matias; Simionato, Claudia Gloria; Moreira, Diego; Model Sensitivity during Extreme Positive and Negative Surges in the Río de la Plata Estuary: Highlighting the Need for an Appropriate Hindcast/Forecast System; Amer Meteorological Soc; Weather and Forecasting; 35; 3; 6-2020; 1097-1112
0882-8156
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0171.1
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0171.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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