Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model

Autores
Saenz de Miera, Belen; Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Palacios, Alfredo; Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Casarini, Agustin; Espinola, Natalia; Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico; Alcaraz, Andrea; Augustovski, Federico Ariel; Pichón-Riviere, Andres
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented component of the World Health Organization MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63 000 premature deaths and 427 000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5)-MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-representing 0.8% of gross domestic product. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49 000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy for both gaining population health and reducing tobacco societal costs.
Fil: Saenz de Miera, Belen. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur; México
Fil: Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam. Public Health Service. National Institute Of Health; Estados Unidos
Fil: Palacios, Alfredo. University of York; Reino Unido
Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: Casarini, Agustin. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Espinola, Natalia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: Pichón-Riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Materia
TOBACCO
TAXES
MEXICO
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/266242
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation modelSaenz de Miera, BelenReynales Shigematsu, Luz MyriamPalacios, AlfredoBardach, Ariel EstebanCasarini, AgustinEspinola, NataliaRodriguez Cairoli, FedericoAlcaraz, AndreaAugustovski, Federico ArielPichón-Riviere, AndresTOBACCOTAXESMEXICOhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented component of the World Health Organization MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63 000 premature deaths and 427 000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5)-MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-representing 0.8% of gross domestic product. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49 000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy for both gaining population health and reducing tobacco societal costs.Fil: Saenz de Miera, Belen. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur; MéxicoFil: Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam. Public Health Service. National Institute Of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Palacios, Alfredo. University of York; Reino UnidoFil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Casarini, Agustin. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Espinola, Natalia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Pichón-Riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaOxford University Press2024-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/266242Saenz de Miera, Belen; Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Palacios, Alfredo; Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Casarini, Agustin; et al.; Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model; Oxford University Press; Health Policy and Planning; 39; 9; 11-2024; 902-9151460-2237CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/39/9/902/7731044info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/heapol/czae068info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-10T13:21:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/266242instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-10 13:21:19.345CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
title Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
spellingShingle Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
Saenz de Miera, Belen
TOBACCO
TAXES
MEXICO
title_short Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
title_full Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
title_fullStr Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
title_full_unstemmed Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
title_sort Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Saenz de Miera, Belen
Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam
Palacios, Alfredo
Bardach, Ariel Esteban
Casarini, Agustin
Espinola, Natalia
Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico
Alcaraz, Andrea
Augustovski, Federico Ariel
Pichón-Riviere, Andres
author Saenz de Miera, Belen
author_facet Saenz de Miera, Belen
Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam
Palacios, Alfredo
Bardach, Ariel Esteban
Casarini, Agustin
Espinola, Natalia
Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico
Alcaraz, Andrea
Augustovski, Federico Ariel
Pichón-Riviere, Andres
author_role author
author2 Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam
Palacios, Alfredo
Bardach, Ariel Esteban
Casarini, Agustin
Espinola, Natalia
Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico
Alcaraz, Andrea
Augustovski, Federico Ariel
Pichón-Riviere, Andres
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv TOBACCO
TAXES
MEXICO
topic TOBACCO
TAXES
MEXICO
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented component of the World Health Organization MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63 000 premature deaths and 427 000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5)-MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-representing 0.8% of gross domestic product. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49 000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy for both gaining population health and reducing tobacco societal costs.
Fil: Saenz de Miera, Belen. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur; México
Fil: Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam. Public Health Service. National Institute Of Health; Estados Unidos
Fil: Palacios, Alfredo. University of York; Reino Unido
Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: Casarini, Agustin. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Espinola, Natalia. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Rodriguez Cairoli, Federico. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; Argentina
Fil: Augustovski, Federico Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
Fil: Pichón-Riviere, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina
description Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented component of the World Health Organization MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63 000 premature deaths and 427 000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5)-MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-representing 0.8% of gross domestic product. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49 000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy for both gaining population health and reducing tobacco societal costs.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/266242
Saenz de Miera, Belen; Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Palacios, Alfredo; Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Casarini, Agustin; et al.; Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model; Oxford University Press; Health Policy and Planning; 39; 9; 11-2024; 902-915
1460-2237
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/266242
identifier_str_mv Saenz de Miera, Belen; Reynales Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Palacios, Alfredo; Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Casarini, Agustin; et al.; Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model; Oxford University Press; Health Policy and Planning; 39; 9; 11-2024; 902-915
1460-2237
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/39/9/902/7731044
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/heapol/czae068
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Oxford University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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