Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach

Autores
Barreiro, Nadia Luisina; Ventura, Cecilia Ileana; Govezensky, T.; Nuñez, Matias; Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo; Barrio, R. A.
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open questions. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.
Fil: Barreiro, Nadia Luisina. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; Argentina
Fil: Ventura, Cecilia Ileana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Govezensky, T.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
Fil: Nuñez, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
Fil: Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; Argentina
Fil: Barrio, R. A.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
Materia
SEIRS model
Geo-stochastic approach
COVID propagation
Assessment of vaccination strategies
COVID-19
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/202325
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/202325
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approachBarreiro, Nadia LuisinaVentura, Cecilia IleanaGovezensky, T.Nuñez, MatiasBolcatto, Pablo GuillermoBarrio, R. A.SEIRS modelGeo-stochastic approachCOVID propagationAssessment of vaccination strategiesCOVID-19https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open questions. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.Fil: Barreiro, Nadia Luisina. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; ArgentinaFil: Ventura, Cecilia Ileana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Govezensky, T.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Nuñez, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; ArgentinaFil: Barrio, R. A.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoNature2022-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/202325Barreiro, Nadia Luisina; Ventura, Cecilia Ileana; Govezensky, T.; Nuñez, Matias; Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo; et al.; Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach; Nature; Scientific Reports; 12; 1; 1-2022; 1-122045-2322CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-05481-8info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:43:14Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/202325instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:43:15.278CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
title Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
spellingShingle Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
Barreiro, Nadia Luisina
SEIRS model
Geo-stochastic approach
COVID propagation
Assessment of vaccination strategies
COVID-19
title_short Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
title_full Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
title_fullStr Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
title_full_unstemmed Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
title_sort Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Barreiro, Nadia Luisina
Ventura, Cecilia Ileana
Govezensky, T.
Nuñez, Matias
Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo
Barrio, R. A.
author Barreiro, Nadia Luisina
author_facet Barreiro, Nadia Luisina
Ventura, Cecilia Ileana
Govezensky, T.
Nuñez, Matias
Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo
Barrio, R. A.
author_role author
author2 Ventura, Cecilia Ileana
Govezensky, T.
Nuñez, Matias
Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo
Barrio, R. A.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv SEIRS model
Geo-stochastic approach
COVID propagation
Assessment of vaccination strategies
COVID-19
topic SEIRS model
Geo-stochastic approach
COVID propagation
Assessment of vaccination strategies
COVID-19
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open questions. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.
Fil: Barreiro, Nadia Luisina. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; Argentina
Fil: Ventura, Cecilia Ileana. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Govezensky, T.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
Fil: Nuñez, Matias. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina
Fil: Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; Argentina
Fil: Barrio, R. A.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
description In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open questions. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/202325
Barreiro, Nadia Luisina; Ventura, Cecilia Ileana; Govezensky, T.; Nuñez, Matias; Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo; et al.; Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach; Nature; Scientific Reports; 12; 1; 1-2022; 1-12
2045-2322
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/202325
identifier_str_mv Barreiro, Nadia Luisina; Ventura, Cecilia Ileana; Govezensky, T.; Nuñez, Matias; Bolcatto, Pablo Guillermo; et al.; Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach; Nature; Scientific Reports; 12; 1; 1-2022; 1-12
2045-2322
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-05481-8
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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