The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
- Autores
- Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; Puzis, Rami; Pilosof, Shai
- Año de publicación
- 2021
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines.
Fil: Guerstein, Sharon. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Dekel, Ma'ayan. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Miron, Oren. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Davidovitch, Nadav. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Puzis, Rami. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Pilosof, Shai. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel - Materia
-
COVID-19
Vaccination
Epidemiooy - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163089
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomesGuerstein, SharonRomeo Aznar, Victoria TeresaDekel, Ma'ayanMiron, OrenDavidovitch, NadavPuzis, RamiPilosof, ShaiCOVID-19VaccinationEpidemiooyhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines.Fil: Guerstein, Sharon. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Dekel, Ma'ayan. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Miron, Oren. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Davidovitch, Nadav. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Puzis, Rami. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Pilosof, Shai. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelPublic Library of Science2021-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/163089Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; et al.; The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes; Public Library of Science; Plos Computational Biology; 17; 8; 8-2021; 1-161553-734XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:54:58Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163089instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:54:59.085CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
title |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
spellingShingle |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes Guerstein, Sharon COVID-19 Vaccination Epidemiooy |
title_short |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
title_full |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
title_fullStr |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
title_full_unstemmed |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
title_sort |
The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Guerstein, Sharon Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa Dekel, Ma'ayan Miron, Oren Davidovitch, Nadav Puzis, Rami Pilosof, Shai |
author |
Guerstein, Sharon |
author_facet |
Guerstein, Sharon Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa Dekel, Ma'ayan Miron, Oren Davidovitch, Nadav Puzis, Rami Pilosof, Shai |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa Dekel, Ma'ayan Miron, Oren Davidovitch, Nadav Puzis, Rami Pilosof, Shai |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Vaccination Epidemiooy |
topic |
COVID-19 Vaccination Epidemiooy |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines. Fil: Guerstein, Sharon. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Dekel, Ma'ayan. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel Fil: Miron, Oren. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel Fil: Davidovitch, Nadav. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel Fil: Puzis, Rami. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel Fil: Pilosof, Shai. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel |
description |
Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-08 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163089 Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; et al.; The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes; Public Library of Science; Plos Computational Biology; 17; 8; 8-2021; 1-16 1553-734X CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163089 |
identifier_str_mv |
Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; et al.; The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes; Public Library of Science; Plos Computational Biology; 17; 8; 8-2021; 1-16 1553-734X CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
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openAccess |
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
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application/pdf application/pdf |
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Public Library of Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library of Science |
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reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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