The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes

Autores
Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; Puzis, Rami; Pilosof, Shai
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines.
Fil: Guerstein, Sharon. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Dekel, Ma'ayan. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Miron, Oren. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Davidovitch, Nadav. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Puzis, Rami. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Pilosof, Shai. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Materia
COVID-19
Vaccination
Epidemiooy
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163089

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomesGuerstein, SharonRomeo Aznar, Victoria TeresaDekel, Ma'ayanMiron, OrenDavidovitch, NadavPuzis, RamiPilosof, ShaiCOVID-19VaccinationEpidemiooyhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines.Fil: Guerstein, Sharon. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Dekel, Ma'ayan. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Miron, Oren. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Davidovitch, Nadav. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Puzis, Rami. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelFil: Pilosof, Shai. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; IsraelPublic Library of Science2021-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/163089Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; et al.; The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes; Public Library of Science; Plos Computational Biology; 17; 8; 8-2021; 1-161553-734XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:54:58Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/163089instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:54:59.085CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
title The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
spellingShingle The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
Guerstein, Sharon
COVID-19
Vaccination
Epidemiooy
title_short The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
title_full The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
title_fullStr The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
title_full_unstemmed The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
title_sort The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Guerstein, Sharon
Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
Dekel, Ma'ayan
Miron, Oren
Davidovitch, Nadav
Puzis, Rami
Pilosof, Shai
author Guerstein, Sharon
author_facet Guerstein, Sharon
Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
Dekel, Ma'ayan
Miron, Oren
Davidovitch, Nadav
Puzis, Rami
Pilosof, Shai
author_role author
author2 Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa
Dekel, Ma'ayan
Miron, Oren
Davidovitch, Nadav
Puzis, Rami
Pilosof, Shai
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Vaccination
Epidemiooy
topic COVID-19
Vaccination
Epidemiooy
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.7
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines.
Fil: Guerstein, Sharon. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Dekel, Ma'ayan. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Miron, Oren. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Davidovitch, Nadav. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Puzis, Rami. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
Fil: Pilosof, Shai. Ben Gurion University of the Negev; Israel
description Social distancing is an effective population-level mitigation strategy to prevent COVID19 propagation but it does not reduce the number of susceptible individuals and bears severe social consequences-a dire situation that can be overcome with the recently developed vaccines. Although a combination of these interventions should provide greater benefits than their isolated deployment, a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between them is missing. To tackle this challenge we developed an age-structured deterministic model in which vaccines are deployed during the pandemic to individuals who do not show symptoms. The model allows for flexible and dynamic prioritization strategies with shifts between target groups. We find a strong interaction between social distancing and vaccination in their effect on the proportion of hospitalizations. In particular, prioritizing vaccines to elderly (60+) before adults (20-59) is more effective when social distancing is applied to adults or uniformly. In addition, the temporal reproductive number Rt is only affected by vaccines when deployed at sufficiently high rates and in tandem with social distancing. Finally, the same reduction in hospitalization can be achieved via different combination of strategies, giving decision makers flexibility in choosing public health policies. Our study provides insights into the factors that affect vaccination success and provides methodology to test different intervention strategies in a way that will align with ethical guidelines.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163089
Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; et al.; The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes; Public Library of Science; Plos Computational Biology; 17; 8; 8-2021; 1-16
1553-734X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/163089
identifier_str_mv Guerstein, Sharon; Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa; Dekel, Ma'ayan; Miron, Oren; Davidovitch, Nadav; et al.; The interplay between vaccination and social distancing strategies affects COVID19 population-level outcomes; Public Library of Science; Plos Computational Biology; 17; 8; 8-2021; 1-16
1553-734X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009319
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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