The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
- Autores
- Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; Navarra, Antonio; Di Pietro, Pierluigi; Carril, Andrea Fabiana
- Año de publicación
- 2010
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.
Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina - Materia
-
Seasonal Prediction
Initial Conditions - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17840
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The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial ConditionsAlessandri, AndreaBorrelli, AndreaMasina, SimonaCherchi, AnnalisaGualdi, SilvioNavarra, AntonioDi Pietro, PierluigiCarril, Andrea FabianaSeasonal PredictionInitial Conditionshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; ItaliaFil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; ItaliaFil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaAmerican Meteorological Society2010-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-29520027-0644enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:47:02Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17840instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:47:02.472CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
title |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
spellingShingle |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions Alessandri, Andrea Seasonal Prediction Initial Conditions |
title_short |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
title_full |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
title_fullStr |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
title_sort |
The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Alessandri, Andrea Borrelli, Andrea Masina, Simona Cherchi, Annalisa Gualdi, Silvio Navarra, Antonio Di Pietro, Pierluigi Carril, Andrea Fabiana |
author |
Alessandri, Andrea |
author_facet |
Alessandri, Andrea Borrelli, Andrea Masina, Simona Cherchi, Annalisa Gualdi, Silvio Navarra, Antonio Di Pietro, Pierluigi Carril, Andrea Fabiana |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Borrelli, Andrea Masina, Simona Cherchi, Annalisa Gualdi, Silvio Navarra, Antonio Di Pietro, Pierluigi Carril, Andrea Fabiana |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Seasonal Prediction Initial Conditions |
topic |
Seasonal Prediction Initial Conditions |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics. Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia Fil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia Fil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia Fil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia Fil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia Fil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina |
description |
The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010-07 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840 Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-2952 0027-0644 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840 |
identifier_str_mv |
Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-2952 0027-0644 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
American Meteorological Society |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
American Meteorological Society |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |