The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions

Autores
Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; Navarra, Antonio; Di Pietro, Pierluigi; Carril, Andrea Fabiana
Año de publicación
2010
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.
Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Materia
Seasonal Prediction
Initial Conditions
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17840
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17840
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial ConditionsAlessandri, AndreaBorrelli, AndreaMasina, SimonaCherchi, AnnalisaGualdi, SilvioNavarra, AntonioDi Pietro, PierluigiCarril, Andrea FabianaSeasonal PredictionInitial Conditionshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; ItaliaFil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; ItaliaFil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; ItaliaFil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaAmerican Meteorological Society2010-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-29520027-0644enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T14:40:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17840instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 14:40:44.851CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
title The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
spellingShingle The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
Alessandri, Andrea
Seasonal Prediction
Initial Conditions
title_short The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
title_full The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
title_fullStr The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
title_full_unstemmed The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
title_sort The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Alessandri, Andrea
Borrelli, Andrea
Masina, Simona
Cherchi, Annalisa
Gualdi, Silvio
Navarra, Antonio
Di Pietro, Pierluigi
Carril, Andrea Fabiana
author Alessandri, Andrea
author_facet Alessandri, Andrea
Borrelli, Andrea
Masina, Simona
Cherchi, Annalisa
Gualdi, Silvio
Navarra, Antonio
Di Pietro, Pierluigi
Carril, Andrea Fabiana
author_role author
author2 Borrelli, Andrea
Masina, Simona
Cherchi, Annalisa
Gualdi, Silvio
Navarra, Antonio
Di Pietro, Pierluigi
Carril, Andrea Fabiana
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Seasonal Prediction
Initial Conditions
topic Seasonal Prediction
Initial Conditions
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.
Fil: Alessandri, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Borrelli, Andrea. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia
Fil: Masina, Simona. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Cherchi, Annalisa. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Gualdi, Silvio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Navarra, Antonio. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici; Italia. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Di Pietro, Pierluigi. Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia; Italia
Fil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
description The development of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial-conditions estimation includes a reduced-order optimal interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine-member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991–2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e., without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), it is shown that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures of the system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the 1997/98 El Nin˜o, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. The results presented in this paper indicate a better prediction of global-scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably because of the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above-normal and below-normal temperature anomalies are shown in both the tropics and extratropics.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840
Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-2952
0027-0644
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17840
identifier_str_mv Alessandri, Andrea; Borrelli, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gualdi, Silvio; et al.; The INGV–CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: Improved Ocean Initial Conditions; American Meteorological Society; Monthly Energy Review; 138; 7; 7-2010; 2930-2952
0027-0644
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3178.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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