The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

Autores
Lewis, Huw W.; Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; Arnold, Alex; Fallmann, Joachim; Harris, Chris; Pearson, David; Ramsdale, Steven; Martínez De La Torre, Alberto; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor; Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen; Marthews, Toby R.; O'Neill, Clare; Rumbold, Heather; O'Dea, Enda; Brereton, Ashley; Guihou, Karen; Hines, Adrian; Butenschon, Momme; Dadson, Simon J.; Palmer, Tamzin; Holt, Jason; Reynard, Nick; Best, Martin; Edwards, John; Siddorn, John
Año de publicación
2018
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.
Fil: Lewis, Huw W.. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Graham, Jennifer. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Saulter, Andrew. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Bornemann, Jorge. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Arnold, Alex. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Fallmann, Joachim. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Harris, Chris. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Pearson, David. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Ramsdale, Steven. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Martínez De La Torre, Alberto. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Bricheno, Lucy. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Blyth, Eleanor. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Bell, Victoria A.. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Davies, Helen. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Marthews, Toby R.. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: O'Neill, Clare. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Rumbold, Heather. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: O'Dea, Enda. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Brereton, Ashley. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Guihou, Karen. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Hines, Adrian. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Butenschon, Momme. Plymouth Marine Laboratory; Reino Unido
Fil: Dadson, Simon J.. University of Oxford; Reino Unido
Fil: Palmer, Tamzin. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Holt, Jason. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Reynard, Nick. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Best, Martin. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Edwards, John. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Siddorn, John. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Materia
Modelling
Prediction
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/135307

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spelling The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction systemLewis, Huw W.Manuel Castillo Sanchez, JuanGraham, JenniferSaulter, AndrewBornemann, JorgeArnold, AlexFallmann, JoachimHarris, ChrisPearson, DavidRamsdale, StevenMartínez De La Torre, AlbertoBricheno, LucyBlyth, EleanorBell, Victoria A.Davies, HelenMarthews, Toby R.O'Neill, ClareRumbold, HeatherO'Dea, EndaBrereton, AshleyGuihou, KarenHines, AdrianButenschon, MommeDadson, Simon J.Palmer, TamzinHolt, JasonReynard, NickBest, MartinEdwards, JohnSiddorn, JohnModellingPredictionhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.Fil: Lewis, Huw W.. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Graham, Jennifer. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Saulter, Andrew. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Bornemann, Jorge. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Arnold, Alex. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Fallmann, Joachim. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Harris, Chris. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Pearson, David. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Ramsdale, Steven. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Martínez De La Torre, Alberto. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Bricheno, Lucy. National Oceanography Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Blyth, Eleanor. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Bell, Victoria A.. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Davies, Helen. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Marthews, Toby R.. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: O'Neill, Clare. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Rumbold, Heather. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: O'Dea, Enda. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Brereton, Ashley. National Oceanography Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Guihou, Karen. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Hines, Adrian. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Butenschon, Momme. Plymouth Marine Laboratory; Reino UnidoFil: Dadson, Simon J.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Palmer, Tamzin. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Holt, Jason. National Oceanography Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Reynard, Nick. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Best, Martin. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Edwards, John. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoFil: Siddorn, John. Exeter Met Office; Reino UnidoCopernicus GmbH2018-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/135307Lewis, Huw W.; Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; et al.; The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system; Copernicus GmbH; Geoscientific Model Development; 11; 1; 1-2018; 1-421991-9603CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/1/2018/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:06:35Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/135307instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:06:36.119CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
title The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
spellingShingle The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
Lewis, Huw W.
Modelling
Prediction
title_short The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
title_full The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
title_fullStr The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
title_full_unstemmed The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
title_sort The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lewis, Huw W.
Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan
Graham, Jennifer
Saulter, Andrew
Bornemann, Jorge
Arnold, Alex
Fallmann, Joachim
Harris, Chris
Pearson, David
Ramsdale, Steven
Martínez De La Torre, Alberto
Bricheno, Lucy
Blyth, Eleanor
Bell, Victoria A.
Davies, Helen
Marthews, Toby R.
O'Neill, Clare
Rumbold, Heather
O'Dea, Enda
Brereton, Ashley
Guihou, Karen
Hines, Adrian
Butenschon, Momme
Dadson, Simon J.
Palmer, Tamzin
Holt, Jason
Reynard, Nick
Best, Martin
Edwards, John
Siddorn, John
author Lewis, Huw W.
author_facet Lewis, Huw W.
Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan
Graham, Jennifer
Saulter, Andrew
Bornemann, Jorge
Arnold, Alex
Fallmann, Joachim
Harris, Chris
Pearson, David
Ramsdale, Steven
Martínez De La Torre, Alberto
Bricheno, Lucy
Blyth, Eleanor
Bell, Victoria A.
Davies, Helen
Marthews, Toby R.
O'Neill, Clare
Rumbold, Heather
O'Dea, Enda
Brereton, Ashley
Guihou, Karen
Hines, Adrian
Butenschon, Momme
Dadson, Simon J.
Palmer, Tamzin
Holt, Jason
Reynard, Nick
Best, Martin
Edwards, John
Siddorn, John
author_role author
author2 Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan
Graham, Jennifer
Saulter, Andrew
Bornemann, Jorge
Arnold, Alex
Fallmann, Joachim
Harris, Chris
Pearson, David
Ramsdale, Steven
Martínez De La Torre, Alberto
Bricheno, Lucy
Blyth, Eleanor
Bell, Victoria A.
Davies, Helen
Marthews, Toby R.
O'Neill, Clare
Rumbold, Heather
O'Dea, Enda
Brereton, Ashley
Guihou, Karen
Hines, Adrian
Butenschon, Momme
Dadson, Simon J.
Palmer, Tamzin
Holt, Jason
Reynard, Nick
Best, Martin
Edwards, John
Siddorn, John
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Modelling
Prediction
topic Modelling
Prediction
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.
Fil: Lewis, Huw W.. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Graham, Jennifer. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Saulter, Andrew. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Bornemann, Jorge. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Arnold, Alex. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Fallmann, Joachim. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Harris, Chris. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Pearson, David. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Ramsdale, Steven. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Martínez De La Torre, Alberto. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Bricheno, Lucy. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Blyth, Eleanor. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Bell, Victoria A.. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Davies, Helen. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Marthews, Toby R.. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: O'Neill, Clare. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Rumbold, Heather. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: O'Dea, Enda. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Brereton, Ashley. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Guihou, Karen. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Hines, Adrian. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Butenschon, Momme. Plymouth Marine Laboratory; Reino Unido
Fil: Dadson, Simon J.. University of Oxford; Reino Unido
Fil: Palmer, Tamzin. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Holt, Jason. National Oceanography Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Reynard, Nick. Centre For Ecology & Hydrology; Reino Unido
Fil: Best, Martin. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Edwards, John. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
Fil: Siddorn, John. Exeter Met Office; Reino Unido
description It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/135307
Lewis, Huw W.; Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; et al.; The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system; Copernicus GmbH; Geoscientific Model Development; 11; 1; 1-2018; 1-42
1991-9603
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/135307
identifier_str_mv Lewis, Huw W.; Manuel Castillo Sanchez, Juan; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; et al.; The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system; Copernicus GmbH; Geoscientific Model Development; 11; 1; 1-2018; 1-42
1991-9603
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/1/2018/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-11-1-2018
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus GmbH
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Copernicus GmbH
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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