Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

Autores
Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel; Piccolo, Maria Cintia; Bohn, Vanesa Yael; Huck, Gabriel Eduardo
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The fundamentals of Chaos theory allow the study of climatic conditions and long-term modifications produced by changes in their spatial and temporal scales. The aim of this work is to analyse the variability and changes produced in the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation in Northern Patagonia, Argentina, applying multifractal analysis as a practical mathematical tool of Chaos theory. Data from theNASA POWER Project (2021)was implemented as an alternative dataset for carrying out climatological studies in the area. Annual mean temperature and precipitation time-series data (1981-2019) were analysed at 72 grid points with 1° of spatial resolution. The Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate the trends through the annual cycles of the meteorological variables. Fractal dimension values were calculated using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. The Hurst exponent, complexity and asymmetry were the multifractal dimensions describing the persistence of time-series trends and climatic variability. The results showed changes in the annual cycles of both variables during the study period. The most significant finding was a large area in the centre and north of the study area, where the decrease in the rainfall regime was persistent. The Hurst exponent detected a sector in the Patagonian Andes mountain range where the temperature increase was constant. This work demonstrates that fractal geometry is useful to describe meteorological variability and obtain better short-, medium- and long-term forecasts.
Fil: Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina
Fil: Piccolo, Maria Cintia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; Argentina
Fil: Bohn, Vanesa Yael. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca; Argentina
Fil: Huck, Gabriel Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina
Materia
ANNUAL CYCLES
CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
HEATING
HYDRIC STRESS
MELTING
MULTIFRACTAL DIMENSIONS
NORTHERN PATAGONIA
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
TRENDS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/216429
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/216429
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, ArgentinaGarcia Bu Bucogen, GrethelPiccolo, Maria CintiaBohn, Vanesa YaelHuck, Gabriel EduardoANNUAL CYCLESCLIMATIC VARIABILITYHEATINGHYDRIC STRESSMELTINGMULTIFRACTAL DIMENSIONSNORTHERN PATAGONIAPRECIPITATIONTEMPERATURETRENDShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The fundamentals of Chaos theory allow the study of climatic conditions and long-term modifications produced by changes in their spatial and temporal scales. The aim of this work is to analyse the variability and changes produced in the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation in Northern Patagonia, Argentina, applying multifractal analysis as a practical mathematical tool of Chaos theory. Data from theNASA POWER Project (2021)was implemented as an alternative dataset for carrying out climatological studies in the area. Annual mean temperature and precipitation time-series data (1981-2019) were analysed at 72 grid points with 1° of spatial resolution. The Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate the trends through the annual cycles of the meteorological variables. Fractal dimension values were calculated using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. The Hurst exponent, complexity and asymmetry were the multifractal dimensions describing the persistence of time-series trends and climatic variability. The results showed changes in the annual cycles of both variables during the study period. The most significant finding was a large area in the centre and north of the study area, where the decrease in the rainfall regime was persistent. The Hurst exponent detected a sector in the Patagonian Andes mountain range where the temperature increase was constant. This work demonstrates that fractal geometry is useful to describe meteorological variability and obtain better short-, medium- and long-term forecasts.Fil: Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; ArgentinaFil: Piccolo, Maria Cintia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; ArgentinaFil: Bohn, Vanesa Yael. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca; ArgentinaFil: Huck, Gabriel Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; ArgentinaCsiro Publishing2022-10-18info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/216429Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel; Piccolo, Maria Cintia; Bohn, Vanesa Yael; Huck, Gabriel Eduardo; Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina; Csiro Publishing; Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science; 72; 3; 18-10-2022; 179-1902206-5865CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES22009info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1071/ES22009info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:59:51Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/216429instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:59:51.361CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
title Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
spellingShingle Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel
ANNUAL CYCLES
CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
HEATING
HYDRIC STRESS
MELTING
MULTIFRACTAL DIMENSIONS
NORTHERN PATAGONIA
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
TRENDS
title_short Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
title_full Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
title_fullStr Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
title_sort Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel
Piccolo, Maria Cintia
Bohn, Vanesa Yael
Huck, Gabriel Eduardo
author Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel
author_facet Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel
Piccolo, Maria Cintia
Bohn, Vanesa Yael
Huck, Gabriel Eduardo
author_role author
author2 Piccolo, Maria Cintia
Bohn, Vanesa Yael
Huck, Gabriel Eduardo
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ANNUAL CYCLES
CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
HEATING
HYDRIC STRESS
MELTING
MULTIFRACTAL DIMENSIONS
NORTHERN PATAGONIA
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
TRENDS
topic ANNUAL CYCLES
CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
HEATING
HYDRIC STRESS
MELTING
MULTIFRACTAL DIMENSIONS
NORTHERN PATAGONIA
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
TRENDS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The fundamentals of Chaos theory allow the study of climatic conditions and long-term modifications produced by changes in their spatial and temporal scales. The aim of this work is to analyse the variability and changes produced in the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation in Northern Patagonia, Argentina, applying multifractal analysis as a practical mathematical tool of Chaos theory. Data from theNASA POWER Project (2021)was implemented as an alternative dataset for carrying out climatological studies in the area. Annual mean temperature and precipitation time-series data (1981-2019) were analysed at 72 grid points with 1° of spatial resolution. The Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate the trends through the annual cycles of the meteorological variables. Fractal dimension values were calculated using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. The Hurst exponent, complexity and asymmetry were the multifractal dimensions describing the persistence of time-series trends and climatic variability. The results showed changes in the annual cycles of both variables during the study period. The most significant finding was a large area in the centre and north of the study area, where the decrease in the rainfall regime was persistent. The Hurst exponent detected a sector in the Patagonian Andes mountain range where the temperature increase was constant. This work demonstrates that fractal geometry is useful to describe meteorological variability and obtain better short-, medium- and long-term forecasts.
Fil: Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina
Fil: Piccolo, Maria Cintia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; Argentina
Fil: Bohn, Vanesa Yael. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geografía y Turismo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca; Argentina
Fil: Huck, Gabriel Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina
description The fundamentals of Chaos theory allow the study of climatic conditions and long-term modifications produced by changes in their spatial and temporal scales. The aim of this work is to analyse the variability and changes produced in the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation in Northern Patagonia, Argentina, applying multifractal analysis as a practical mathematical tool of Chaos theory. Data from theNASA POWER Project (2021)was implemented as an alternative dataset for carrying out climatological studies in the area. Annual mean temperature and precipitation time-series data (1981-2019) were analysed at 72 grid points with 1° of spatial resolution. The Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate the trends through the annual cycles of the meteorological variables. Fractal dimension values were calculated using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. The Hurst exponent, complexity and asymmetry were the multifractal dimensions describing the persistence of time-series trends and climatic variability. The results showed changes in the annual cycles of both variables during the study period. The most significant finding was a large area in the centre and north of the study area, where the decrease in the rainfall regime was persistent. The Hurst exponent detected a sector in the Patagonian Andes mountain range where the temperature increase was constant. This work demonstrates that fractal geometry is useful to describe meteorological variability and obtain better short-, medium- and long-term forecasts.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10-18
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/216429
Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel; Piccolo, Maria Cintia; Bohn, Vanesa Yael; Huck, Gabriel Eduardo; Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina; Csiro Publishing; Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science; 72; 3; 18-10-2022; 179-190
2206-5865
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/216429
identifier_str_mv Garcia Bu Bucogen, Grethel; Piccolo, Maria Cintia; Bohn, Vanesa Yael; Huck, Gabriel Eduardo; Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina; Csiro Publishing; Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science; 72; 3; 18-10-2022; 179-190
2206-5865
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES22009
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1071/ES22009
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Csiro Publishing
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Csiro Publishing
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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