Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

Autores
Connolly, Ronan; Soon, Willie; Connolly, Michael; Baliunas, Sallie; Berglund, Johan; Butler, C. J.; Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo; Elias, Ana Georgina; Fedorov, Valery M.; Harde, Hermann; Henry, Gregory W.; Hoyt, Douglas V.; Humlum, Ole; Legates, David R.; Scafetta, Nicola; Solheim, Jan-Erik; Szarka, László; Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.; Yan, Hong; Zhang, Weijia
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and ST data sets. We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST, one could (prematurely) conclude anything from the warming being "mostly human-caused" to "mostly natural." Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was "erroneous" and "flawed" because we did not use a multilinear regression. They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement. They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date. However, here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series, the original conclusions of Connolly et al. are confirmed for all five ST data sets. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused, mostly natural or some combination of both.
Fil: Connolly, Ronan. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos
Fil: Soon, Willie. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; Hungría
Fil: Connolly, Michael. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos
Fil: Baliunas, Sallie. Harvard-Smithsonian Center For Astrophysics; Estados Unidos
Fil: Berglund, Johan. No especifíca;
Fil: Butler, C. J.. No especifíca;
Fil: Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional San Nicolás. Grupo de Estudios Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Elias, Ana Georgina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet Noa Sur. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino; Argentina
Fil: Fedorov, Valery M.. Universidad Estatal de Moscu Mijail Vasilievich Lomonosov (mgu);
Fil: Harde, Hermann. Helmut-Schmidt-University; Alemania
Fil: Henry, Gregory W.. Tennessee State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Hoyt, Douglas V.. No especifíca;
Fil: Humlum, Ole. University of Oslo; Noruega
Fil: Legates, David R.. University of Delaware; Estados Unidos
Fil: Scafetta, Nicola. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II; Italia
Fil: Solheim, Jan-Erik. The Arctic University of Norway; Noruega
Fil: Szarka, László. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; Hungría
Fil: Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
Fil: Yan, Hong. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Zhang, Weijia. Shaoxing University; China
Materia
SOLAR ACTIVITY
TEMPERATURE
CLIMATIC CHANGE
TRENDS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/243500
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/243500
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850Connolly, RonanSoon, WillieConnolly, MichaelBaliunas, SallieBerglund, JohanButler, C. J.Cionco, Rodolfo GustavoElias, Ana GeorginaFedorov, Valery M.Harde, HermannHenry, Gregory W.Hoyt, Douglas V.Humlum, OleLegates, David R.Scafetta, NicolaSolheim, Jan-ErikSzarka, LászlóVelasco Herrera, Víctor M.Yan, HongZhang, WeijiaSOLAR ACTIVITYTEMPERATURECLIMATIC CHANGETRENDShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and ST data sets. We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST, one could (prematurely) conclude anything from the warming being "mostly human-caused" to "mostly natural." Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was "erroneous" and "flawed" because we did not use a multilinear regression. They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement. They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date. However, here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series, the original conclusions of Connolly et al. are confirmed for all five ST data sets. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused, mostly natural or some combination of both.Fil: Connolly, Ronan. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Soon, Willie. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; HungríaFil: Connolly, Michael. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Baliunas, Sallie. Harvard-Smithsonian Center For Astrophysics; Estados UnidosFil: Berglund, Johan. No especifíca;Fil: Butler, C. J.. No especifíca;Fil: Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional San Nicolás. Grupo de Estudios Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Elias, Ana Georgina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet Noa Sur. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Fedorov, Valery M.. Universidad Estatal de Moscu Mijail Vasilievich Lomonosov (mgu);Fil: Harde, Hermann. Helmut-Schmidt-University; AlemaniaFil: Henry, Gregory W.. Tennessee State University; Estados UnidosFil: Hoyt, Douglas V.. No especifíca;Fil: Humlum, Ole. University of Oslo; NoruegaFil: Legates, David R.. University of Delaware; Estados UnidosFil: Scafetta, Nicola. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II; ItaliaFil: Solheim, Jan-Erik. The Arctic University of Norway; NoruegaFil: Szarka, László. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; HungríaFil: Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Yan, Hong. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Zhang, Weijia. Shaoxing University; ChinaNational Astronomical Observatories2023-09info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/243500Connolly, Ronan; Soon, Willie; Connolly, Michael; Baliunas, Sallie; Berglund, Johan; et al.; Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850; National Astronomical Observatories; Research In Astronomy And Astrophysics; 23; 10; 9-2023; 1-211674-4527CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18einfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18einfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:59:22Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/243500instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:59:23.519CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
title Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
spellingShingle Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
Connolly, Ronan
SOLAR ACTIVITY
TEMPERATURE
CLIMATIC CHANGE
TRENDS
title_short Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
title_full Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
title_fullStr Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
title_full_unstemmed Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
title_sort Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Connolly, Ronan
Soon, Willie
Connolly, Michael
Baliunas, Sallie
Berglund, Johan
Butler, C. J.
Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo
Elias, Ana Georgina
Fedorov, Valery M.
Harde, Hermann
Henry, Gregory W.
Hoyt, Douglas V.
Humlum, Ole
Legates, David R.
Scafetta, Nicola
Solheim, Jan-Erik
Szarka, László
Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.
Yan, Hong
Zhang, Weijia
author Connolly, Ronan
author_facet Connolly, Ronan
Soon, Willie
Connolly, Michael
Baliunas, Sallie
Berglund, Johan
Butler, C. J.
Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo
Elias, Ana Georgina
Fedorov, Valery M.
Harde, Hermann
Henry, Gregory W.
Hoyt, Douglas V.
Humlum, Ole
Legates, David R.
Scafetta, Nicola
Solheim, Jan-Erik
Szarka, László
Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.
Yan, Hong
Zhang, Weijia
author_role author
author2 Soon, Willie
Connolly, Michael
Baliunas, Sallie
Berglund, Johan
Butler, C. J.
Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo
Elias, Ana Georgina
Fedorov, Valery M.
Harde, Hermann
Henry, Gregory W.
Hoyt, Douglas V.
Humlum, Ole
Legates, David R.
Scafetta, Nicola
Solheim, Jan-Erik
Szarka, László
Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.
Yan, Hong
Zhang, Weijia
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv SOLAR ACTIVITY
TEMPERATURE
CLIMATIC CHANGE
TRENDS
topic SOLAR ACTIVITY
TEMPERATURE
CLIMATIC CHANGE
TRENDS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and ST data sets. We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST, one could (prematurely) conclude anything from the warming being "mostly human-caused" to "mostly natural." Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was "erroneous" and "flawed" because we did not use a multilinear regression. They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement. They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date. However, here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series, the original conclusions of Connolly et al. are confirmed for all five ST data sets. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused, mostly natural or some combination of both.
Fil: Connolly, Ronan. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos
Fil: Soon, Willie. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; Hungría
Fil: Connolly, Michael. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos
Fil: Baliunas, Sallie. Harvard-Smithsonian Center For Astrophysics; Estados Unidos
Fil: Berglund, Johan. No especifíca;
Fil: Butler, C. J.. No especifíca;
Fil: Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional San Nicolás. Grupo de Estudios Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Elias, Ana Georgina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet Noa Sur. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino; Argentina
Fil: Fedorov, Valery M.. Universidad Estatal de Moscu Mijail Vasilievich Lomonosov (mgu);
Fil: Harde, Hermann. Helmut-Schmidt-University; Alemania
Fil: Henry, Gregory W.. Tennessee State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Hoyt, Douglas V.. No especifíca;
Fil: Humlum, Ole. University of Oslo; Noruega
Fil: Legates, David R.. University of Delaware; Estados Unidos
Fil: Scafetta, Nicola. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II; Italia
Fil: Solheim, Jan-Erik. The Arctic University of Norway; Noruega
Fil: Szarka, László. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; Hungría
Fil: Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; México
Fil: Yan, Hong. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Zhang, Weijia. Shaoxing University; China
description Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and ST data sets. We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST, one could (prematurely) conclude anything from the warming being "mostly human-caused" to "mostly natural." Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was "erroneous" and "flawed" because we did not use a multilinear regression. They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement. They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date. However, here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series, the original conclusions of Connolly et al. are confirmed for all five ST data sets. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused, mostly natural or some combination of both.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-09
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/243500
Connolly, Ronan; Soon, Willie; Connolly, Michael; Baliunas, Sallie; Berglund, Johan; et al.; Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850; National Astronomical Observatories; Research In Astronomy And Astrophysics; 23; 10; 9-2023; 1-21
1674-4527
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/243500
identifier_str_mv Connolly, Ronan; Soon, Willie; Connolly, Michael; Baliunas, Sallie; Berglund, Johan; et al.; Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850; National Astronomical Observatories; Research In Astronomy And Astrophysics; 23; 10; 9-2023; 1-21
1674-4527
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Astronomical Observatories
publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Astronomical Observatories
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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