Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)

Autores
Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.
Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España
Fil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Materia
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
INFECTION WAVES
POPULATION DYNAMICS
RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY
SIR EPIDEMICS
UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217051
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)Manrubia, S.Zanette, Damian HoracioEFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBERINFECTION WAVESPOPULATION DYNAMICSRISK-TAKING PROPENSITYSIR EPIDEMICSUNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; EspañaFil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaThe Royal Society2022-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); The Royal Society; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-132054-5703CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rsos.211667info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T12:15:54Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217051instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 12:15:54.583CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
title Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
spellingShingle Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
Manrubia, S.
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
INFECTION WAVES
POPULATION DYNAMICS
RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY
SIR EPIDEMICS
UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES
title_short Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
title_full Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
title_fullStr Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
title_full_unstemmed Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
title_sort Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Manrubia, S.
Zanette, Damian Horacio
author Manrubia, S.
author_facet Manrubia, S.
Zanette, Damian Horacio
author_role author
author2 Zanette, Damian Horacio
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
INFECTION WAVES
POPULATION DYNAMICS
RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY
SIR EPIDEMICS
UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES
topic EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
INFECTION WAVES
POPULATION DYNAMICS
RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY
SIR EPIDEMICS
UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.
Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España
Fil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
description Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051
Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); The Royal Society; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-13
2054-5703
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051
identifier_str_mv Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); The Royal Society; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-13
2054-5703
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rsos.211667
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv The Royal Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv The Royal Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1846782575292448768
score 12.982451

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