Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)
- Autores
- Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio
- Año de publicación
- 2022
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.
Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España
Fil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina - Materia
-
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
INFECTION WAVES
POPULATION DYNAMICS
RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY
SIR EPIDEMICS
UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217051
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1)Manrubia, S.Zanette, Damian HoracioEFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBERINFECTION WAVESPOPULATION DYNAMICSRISK-TAKING PROPENSITYSIR EPIDEMICSUNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; EspañaFil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaThe Royal Society2022-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); The Royal Society; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-132054-5703CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rsos.211667info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:43:07Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217051instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:43:08.057CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
title |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
spellingShingle |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) Manrubia, S. EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER INFECTION WAVES POPULATION DYNAMICS RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY SIR EPIDEMICS UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES |
title_short |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
title_full |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
title_fullStr |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
title_sort |
Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1) |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Manrubia, S. Zanette, Damian Horacio |
author |
Manrubia, S. |
author_facet |
Manrubia, S. Zanette, Damian Horacio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Zanette, Damian Horacio |
author2_role |
author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER INFECTION WAVES POPULATION DYNAMICS RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY SIR EPIDEMICS UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES |
topic |
EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER INFECTION WAVES POPULATION DYNAMICS RISK-TAKING PROPENSITY SIR EPIDEMICS UNCOORDINATED INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19. Fil: Manrubia, S.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España Fil: Zanette, Damian Horacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigación y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (Centro Atómico Bariloche); Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina |
description |
Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R=1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes welldefined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-04 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051 Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); The Royal Society; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-13 2054-5703 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217051 |
identifier_str_mv |
Manrubia, S.; Zanette, Damian Horacio; Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility (R = 1); The Royal Society; Royal Society Open Science; 9; 4; 4-2022; 1-13 2054-5703 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1098/rsos.211667 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
The Royal Society |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
The Royal Society |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |